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Summer 2020 Banter and random observations


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Norway is hands down the best country I’ve ever visited.  Place was so clean and it appeared money grew on trees, even very rural areas seemed “well kept”... have family there so visited some spots tourists might not, but just seemed like every thing was so well kept.  Even way rural, none of this letting my yard grow out, cars up on cinder blocks, trashy look.  

Not to mention the craziest geography you can imagine.

It was incredibly impressive... roads looked like they were repaved annually lol, bridges, tunnels, ferries, the infrastructure oozed money, Oslo has to be the cleanest European city I’ve ever been to... and it cost $40 USD for a large pizza, which is probably how they pay for it all lol. 

They also have huge oil wealth which funds their trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund. Take that lucky break away and things would probably look quite different.

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12 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It also has a tiny, ethnically homogeneous population with a strong work ethic and sense of civic pride that stretches back many generations. Basically the opposite of most American cities. 

Almost.  Norway is doing better now but up thru the mid-20th their treatment of the Sami was regrettable. 
That said, I echo PF's impressions of Norway. Our 2017 excursion stayed mostly on the tourist track, but even the grotesquely huge cruise ships at Flam and Geiranger couldn't blunt the awesome beauty of the fjords.  Farthest we got from the heavily beaten track was Trondheim - one of my wife's 4 Norwegian grandparents was born there - and there was considerable tourist traffic there though far from the crush in the two fjord towns noted above.  Weather was cool for our trip, mostly under 70F (unlike the next summer with its mid 80s) and we saw some RA each of our 8 days in country, though only one rainout and we had planned visits to Oslo-area museums that day anyway.

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Norway is hands down the best country I’ve ever visited.  Place was so clean and it appeared money grew on trees, even very rural areas seemed “well kept”... have family there so visited some spots tourists might not, but just seemed like every thing was so well kept.  Even way rural, none of this letting my yard grow out, cars up on cinder blocks, trashy look.  

Not to mention the craziest geography you can imagine.

It was incredibly impressive... roads looked like they were repaved annually lol, bridges, tunnels, ferries, the infrastructure oozed money, Oslo has to be the cleanest European city I’ve ever been to... and it cost $40 USD for a large pizza, which is probably how they pay for it all lol. 

Yea. I’ve been to Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium (and other Euro)...great countries to live and raise a family. 

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13 hours ago, Hoth said:

Meh, those Nordic countries have plenty of problems of their own.

No country is utopian but they are consistently ranked high to live and raise a family...and that’s not by coincidence. America has fallen further and further down the ranks since the 90s. Maybe we need start examining what MAGA really means and how to achieve it?

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No country is utopian but they are consistently ranked high to live and raise a family...and that’s not by coincidence. America has fallen further and further down the ranks since the 90s. Maybe we need start examining what MAGA really means and how to achieve it?

Most cities are an epic disaster maybe we should reexamine why and who sets the policies that have failed them for decades. I would start there.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I’ve been to Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium (and other Euro)...great countries to live and raise a family. 

Oddly enough, few of them are raising families. Birth rates are shit over there. That’s probably why the government provides such generous benefits for having kids, as an incentive to have a bunch. Has that never occurred to you?

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53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Most cities are an epic disaster maybe we should reexamine why and who sets the policies that have failed them for decades. I would start there.

I know what you are doing but it doesn’t start there. It’s part of the problem, sure. But the income distribution is the key driver where other problems branch off from. 

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46 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The rich and privileged have made Boston their playground. It’s a beautiful world class city. Then head over to Roxbury...

Gentrification is a major issue. Oakland San Francisco Los Angeles Boston all have pushed out their lower class, instituted huge rents, home costs and cost of living. The result is homelessness, families split up and more people giving up.  Economic empowerment zones with businesses owned and operated by local residents was working and people were getting jobs and improving themselves then between the virus, riots and social unrest a lot of gains were lost.

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15 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The Nordic countries are basically Vermont and parts of Massachusetts. Comparing them to the entire 325 million person US one-to-one is dumb. 

A lot of it is cultural norms.  Selling drugs and things like that are cool in the US, even things like littering...I'm so bad ass I just threw this McDonald's bag out the window.  In Tokyo when I was there it was super clean, super quiet, and pleasant.  No one even talked on their cell phone in public or on the subway. Of course they have many problems of their own.  People think it's all about the government to create a great society, but it's mostly the people that make that choice.  

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48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NYC is having a major problem that has no easy answer. This is an article by a NYC born and bred resident that goes through the list. Interesting read

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nyc-dead-forever-heres-why-james-altucher/

The results of the pandemic and the general crime situation in the cities will not be fully realized for 5-10 years. It's clear there has been a big blow to the cities, but demographic shifts play out over several years or decades, not all at once. The biggest thing happening right now in places like NYC is they are getting "hollowed out" as the major taxpayers and job producers leave first, since they have the means to easily do so. I read somewhere that over 50% of the taxes in NYC are paid by a small number of wealthy residents who are actively being demonized and told to f*ck off and leave. The role of teleworking is an interesting angle to this as well. More widespread teleworking makes it much less attractive to pay huge money to live somewhere such as NYC or San Francisco. It's not like you can even argue you want to be in NYC for the entertainment and food. Most of that is shut down or severely limited and that situation isn't changing for 18-24 months, if ever.

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27 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

A lot of it is cultural norms.  Selling drugs and things like that are cool in the US, even things like littering...I'm so bad ass I just threw this McDonald's bag out the window.  In Tokyo when I was there it was super clean, super quiet, and pleasant.  No one even talked on their cell phone in public or on the subway. Of course they have many problems of their own.  People think it's all about the government to create a great society, but it's mostly the people that make that choice.  

Yeah most of it for sure is cultural.  It also depends on a lot on how the population feels... if they feel disenfranchised, they are less likely to work collectively with the populous to keep things in order, clean, nice, etc.  Most of the cleanest countries have a very uniform population where everyone feels the same way, with not a lot of unrest.

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The results of the pandemic and the general crime situation in the cities will not be fully realized for 5-10 years. It's clear there has been a big blow to the cities, but demographic shifts play out over several years or decades, not all at once. The biggest thing happening right now in places like NYC is they are getting "hollowed out" as the major taxpayers and job producers leave first, since they have the means to easily do so. I read somewhere that over 50% of the taxes in NYC are paid by a small number of wealthy residents who are actively being demonized and told to f*ck off and leave. The role of teleworking is an interesting angle to this as well. More widespread teleworking makes it much less attractive to pay huge money to live somewhere such as NYC or San Francisco. It's not like you can even argue you want to be in NYC for the entertainment and food. Most of that is shut down or severely limited and that situation isn't changing for 18-24 months, if ever.

The teleworking stuff is interesting as it's been building for quite a while but seems to come in waves.  Like the very first wave was after 9/11, IMO.  I know several people in Stowe that moved up here from NYC area after 9/11 and started working remotely.  It's been a growing thing in mountain towns (east and west US) for what seems like two decades, but seems to come in renewed waves after some causation event.  Telecommuting was going to be the next best thing for people who wanted to enjoy the mountain recreation lifestyle (or beach lifestyle, I have a couple friends who work remote on the Cali coast) or whatever, but this will be another strong wave like 9/11 where people who have been thinking about it, finally pull the trigger again.  It's not going away either, it can be delayed but then down the road something else will happen that will drive another wave of people to the country side if all they need is a broadband internet connection to do their job.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The teleworking stuff is interesting as it's been building for quite a while but seems to come in waves.  Like the very first wave was after 9/11, IMO.  I know several people in Stowe that moved up here from NYC area after 9/11 and started working remotely.  It's been a growing thing in mountain towns (east and west US) for what seems like two decades, but seems to come in renewed waves after some causation event.  Telecommuting was going to be the next best thing for people who wanted to enjoy the mountain recreation lifestyle (or beach lifestyle) or whatever, but this will be another strong wave like 9/11 where people who have been thinking about it, finally pull the trigger again.  It's not going away either, it can be delayed but then down the road something else will happen that will drive another wave of people to the country side if all they need is a broadband internet connection to do their job.

My job was almost 100% in-person 6-7 years ago. I was commuting in Boston basically every day. We had the ability to work from home during snowstorms or any other circumstances that arose, but it was cumbersome. They improved the remote working capabilities in the years since and even before the virus hit, I was up to 4 days per week at home. Haven't been in since March in the post-virus world.

I don't think cities will be completely hollowed out though...there will be a pushback eventually. Human capital is the number one resource for businesses these days. Of course, there will be some variance in the different cities....you can take the path of Baltimore from the 1970s-present or you can take the path of Boston. A city like Boston has the big advantage of human capital though....it is basically the education capital of the U.S.

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My job was almost 100% in-person 6-7 years ago. I was commuting in Boston basically every day. We had the ability to work from home during snowstorms or any other circumstances that arose, but it was cumbersome. They improved the remote working capabilities in the years since and even before the virus hit, I was up to 4 days per week at home. Haven't been in since March in the post-virus world.

I don't think cities will be completely hollowed out though...there will be a pushback eventually. Human capital is the number one resource for businesses these days. Of course, there will be some variance in the different cities....you can take the path of Baltimore from the 1970s-present or you can take the path of Boston. A city like Boston has the big advantage of human capital though....it is basically the education capital of the U.S.

That's how I feel. A place like Boston may end up ok because of the resources like you said. Lots of small business/ start ups that need people, and an education mecca. 

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