Isolated SVR FF potential for our NYC metro 130P Fri 7/3-3A Sat 7/4

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning July 3, 2020. This mornings SPC marginal risk, OKX near term discussion covers the basics (both review more data than I). Additionally I like to use SPC HREF which from my daily review WPC uses frequently for its day1 QPF. Have made this a larger window for thunderstorms/heavy rainers due to some of modeling lingering through ~06z, which I think is possible (not strictly heating related convection). Believe most of the big storms are in the 5-10P window associated with 850 MB vorticity-trough passing southward into our area.  Regarding Severe: "probably" isolated but power outages from lightning could be somewhat more extensive than the damaging wind gusts due to PWAT briefly near 2" this eve. Can see isolated rainfall 3.5" somewhere in the area... best chance I think is se NYS or NNJ...from 2-3 bands of heavy showers/storms this afternoon, otherwise WPC D1 qpf looks reasonable.   Will post as time permits later today/this eve and summarize with final LSR/Rainfall maps sometime around 6A Saturday. 

[Animal]

Mt Holly & Upton are both honking storms and heavy rain potential.

 

[Stormlover74]

Nam holds off on the heaviest til this evening

[forkyfork]

that cluster north of the city looks promising

[Animal]

All right is quiet in nw nj

84f sunny

hoping something pops later in my area

[Allsnow]

Looks like anything that pops west of the city will be after 7pm. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that cluster north of the city looks promising

It has some wonderful clouds, it slid past a few miles to my west and looked good. The next one looks even better.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It has some wonderful clouds, it slid past a few miles to my west and looked good. The next one looks even better.

Got fringed on that one. A few light showers and rumbles just to my west.

[Animal]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like anything that pops west of the city will be after 7pm. 

Latest hrrr is unimpressive 

[psv88]

Storms missing me to my East all day. Suffolk getting slammed 

[IrishRob17]

.58” total on the day, lost power about 90 minutes ago, part of a decent sized outage ...really hoping I don’t need to fire up the generator but this is the reason I have one, we’ll see. 

[Cfa]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storms missing me to my East all day. Suffolk getting slammed 

Eastern Suffolk always seems to do better than Western Suffolk, I don’t get it.

Quick shower here but it amounted to nothing.

[Brian5671]

huge downpour here an hour ago-looks like more on the way

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, Animal said:

Latest hrrr is unimpressive 

The convection west of the lower Hudson valley is the stuff to watch. The trajectory of them looks southeast, so the closer to the city the better for storms. 

[Allsnow]

Going to be a very active evening on Long Island. The radar looks very active in CT moving south 

[Animal]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The convection west of the lower Hudson valley is the stuff to watch. The trajectory of them looks southeast, so the closer to the city the better for storms. 

Mt Holly nws is calling for storms to drift south up in the north areas this evening possibly as far south as the philly burbs.

time will tell 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The convection west of the lower Hudson valley is the stuff to watch. The trajectory of them looks southeast, so the closer to the city the better for storms. 

We may get the stuff in Sullivan county

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, Animal said:

Mt Holly nws is calling for storms to drift south up in the north areas this evening possibly as far south as the philly burbs.

time will tell 

They just put out a statement out about the storms west of the Lehigh valley. They look to impact Phl tonight 

[Brian5671]

Total crush job here-heavy rain and CTG lightning everywhere

[Brian5671]

one of the wildest storms I've seen here in a long time-inches of rain and constant lightning.

[Animal]

Line looks decent drifting down from northern Orange County west to east

[SRRTA22]

NAMNST looks to be handling it well. Has it hammering us in a couple of hours.

 

[gravitylover]

That line is just getting to me now, rumhley grumbley... Lets see how it does. 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

one of the wildest storms I've seen here in a long time-inches of rain and constant lightning.

Now much in your bucket?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Now much in your bucket?

close to 3 inches

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

close to 3 inches

Going to end up close to 5 with the way the radar looks for your area 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to end up close to 5 with the way the radar looks for your area 

easily, I'm up to 3.6

[forkyfork]

totally matches reality

[LIWeatherGuy29]

Rained for about 15 minutes here today. Only got around .10 of an inch of rain. Last good soaking here was last Sunday. Not much rain Wednesday. Every day storms have been missing me to the west and east.

[Animal]

Some knarly thunder hearing in the hills