osfan24 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 NAM still sticks with all activity east of the bay. Euro was a nice bump west, but looks like it won't be enough. We are running really short on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 91 at DCA. Day #14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Are we doing a separate thread? Sure, start it boss 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Latest WPC model discussion. This thing is practically on the doorstep and confidence is below average lol. Quote Preference: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CMC blend Confidence: Slightly below average The 12Z NAM appears to be too fast with the surface low almost from initialization, though it tends to slow a bit toward 11/00z. However, both the 12Z NAM/GFS are faster with the surface low than much of the 00Z non-NCEP guidance, and remains so through 11/12z. The 12Z NAM/GFS are generally weaker with the surface system, and tend to draw it back westward toward the broad long wave trough crossing the Mid Atlantic and New England through the period. Though the trend in the 12Z non-NCEP guidance has been to bring the track of the surface low back west, it is still slower and further east than the 12Z NCEP guidance. The change in the 12Z ECMWF surface low track seems to be tied to how the mid level systems are interacting, as the 12Z ECMWF has closed off a mid level system over the eastern OH Valley. While the change in the 12Z ECMWF is concerning, it seems to have embraced the general westward shift all of the 12Z guidance. In the end, the preference has not changed, despite the rather large change in the 12Z ECMWF. However, since it is not clear how the mid level interactions will ultimately impact the surface low track, forecast confidence is dropped to slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 91 at DCA. Day #14. woooo 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Ian said: woooo Who are you again? Hope you are doing well and enjoying this 90 degree heat wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 57 minutes ago, yoda said: Who are you again? Hope you are doing well and enjoying this 90 degree heat wave I am not so sure these days. You too! If we make it through tomorrow... it has trended right. (I finally cleaned out my attachments so I can post pics) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 hours ago, Ian said: woooo I thought you were dead. Glad you are alive. Welcome back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 81 at 10am. Going to be a late day high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 81 at 10am. Going to be a late day high. Pretty socked in with clouds here in college park. Hopefully we can clear out a bit this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Pattern still remains on track for prolonged sustained heat beginning late this weekend and peaking late next week into the week after. Forecast has low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look to be right at 90 or a little above then the furnace gets cranking mid-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: Pattern still remains on track for prolonged sustained heat beginning late this weekend and peaking late next week into the week after. Forecast has low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look to be right at 90 or a little above then the furnace gets cranking mid-week Oh yeah euro has 102 for dc next Thursday and then 100, 101 on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: 81 at 10am. Going to be a late day high. really gonna be a shame when we 89 between two two-week stretches of 90s. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ian said: really gonna be a shame when we 89 between two two-week stretches of 90s. ;p I think we’re gonna do it today, it’s already 85-86 at the wunderground stations around DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ian said: really gonna be a shame when we 89 between two two-week stretches of 90s. ;p Maybe we can go 30/31 in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I think we’re gonna do it today, it’s already 85-86 at the wunderground stations around DCA. yeah looks like at least 85 there per 5 min obs. not bad for noon... nws ticked back up to 90 from 89. 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Maybe we can go 30/31 in July. does seem we will make a run at the July record per modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I want to find the pattern breaker. Need something strong to shuffle the deck. Fay won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Ian said: yeah looks like at least 85 there per 5 min obs. not bad for noon... nws ticked back up to 90 from 89. does seem we will make a run at the July record per modeling. We need that shift to NW or WNW winds and DCA will cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We need that shift to NW or WNW winds and DCA will cook. yeah seems to maybe be ongoing. nice spike at one to 87. imagine we'll get it now but no sense in being cocky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ian said: yeah seems to maybe be ongoing. nice spike at one to 87. imagine we'll get it now but no sense in being cocky lol. Up to 88° and the satellite looks to be going clear shortly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Up to 88° and the satellite looks to be going clear shortly! Remember, an 88 on the 5-min obs could be an 87 or 88. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Up to 88° and the satellite looks to be going clear shortly! Nice moat right over DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Do I need to tell you all again how well DCA luvs late day temp spikes to get a bogus 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 DCA reporting 90° on the 5min obs. Should hit the low 90s here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: DCA reporting 90° on the 5min obs. Should hit the low 90s here shortly. Waffling between 88 and 89, but looking at the satellite there is no reason to think that it shouldn't get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 6HR MaxT is 89° for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Euro in with the torch tomorrow. Gets DC to 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ian said: Euro in with the torch tomorrow. Gets DC to 98. The Euro also had 99 yesterday. It was the only model even close, but we do well with post-frontal downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The Euro also had 99 yesterday. It was the only model even close, but we do well with post-frontal downslope. ahh yeah I see now. last night's was more in line with the other models in the low 90s or so. it is a situation we tend to bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ian said: ahh yeah I see now. last night's was more in line with the other models in the low 90s or so. it is a situation we tend to bake. After today, our next hurdle looks like Monday with the trough passage. If we get any coverage of clouds/precip, that could end it. If we pass that one the record looks very attainable. Also, the GFS is not as impressive with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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