ThePhotoGuy Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Davis,WV, is part of this forum so I’m putting this here. We took some wine, crackers, pepperoni, and cheese up to the ridge this evening and watched this storm build. Looking forward to seeing @jonjon tomorrow and picking up some beers. Great view and pic! Thinking about making a trip that way late summer/early fall. Any suggestions on places to stay out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: Great view and pic! Thinking about making a trip that way late summer/early fall. Any suggestions on places to stay out that way? @jonjon has a place he and his wife rent right above the brewery. We had too many people to stay there this trip but you should send him a pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Looking good, I think I’m gonna head up to dolly sods and do a hike there tomorrow. We are hoping to get to Stumptown Ales in the afternoon. I don’t know what time they open, and I don’t know how long we will hang out before heading home, but maybe see you for a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Out here, just southwest of Purcellville, I am sitting at 1.58 inches of rain for the last 31 days! The storm two nights ago dumped almost an inch of rain less than 1 mile from my home! Yesterday, the storms literally split around me and I ended up with .04" . I submitted the information to the Climate office. Meanwhile, friends of mine in the eastern part of Loudoun saw 8+ inches of rain in June and over 3 inches the last week! I have brown grass and a dusty dry yard! Agreed. The majority of the area west of 95 is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 We hit 100 today and yesterday here in Central TX. Last night the low was 80. This weekend is going to be HOT, 103, but next week is supposed to be EVEN HOTTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 0z Euro tracks the low further east, with no appreciable precip anywhere in our region. Huge shift from its 12z run. ICON and RGEM are in that camp as well (ICON has been further east for several runs). The GFS and NAMs track the low slightly inland, with heavy rain as far west as I-95. CMC is sort of in the middle, and still has some decent rains for eastern areas. Quite a bit of discrepancy for this range. It will be interesting to monitor the development of the low today. The trough depth/timing is going to have a lot to say about the final outcome, but it seems many more times than not in these setups, the low tracks a bit too far east to have much impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The trough depth/timing is going to have a lot to say about the final outcome, but it seems many more times than not in these setups, the low tracks a bit too far east to have much impact. Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. But, here is the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Significant shorter range model differences remain with an Eastern Seaboard coastal low whose potential development is being monitored by NHC. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs have been the most progressive with this low into the Northeast this weekend. Recent UKMET runs have been the most developed. While plausible, the WPC product suite was primarily derived instead from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean that offers good continuity for this coastal low and also seems to provide a good forecast starting point and continuity for the rest of the lower 48 days 3-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, frd said: Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Yeah it seems they composed that AFD before looking at the 0z Euro. My gut says the immediate coast gets a glancing blow, but probably not much for our locations. The 12z runs will be telling, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z Euro tracks the low further east, with no appreciable precip anywhere in our region. Huge shift from its 12z run. ICON and RGEM are in that camp as well (ICON has been further east for several runs). The GFS and NAMs track the low slightly inland, with heavy rain as far west as I-95. CMC is sort of in the middle, and still has some decent rains for eastern areas. Quite a bit of discrepancy for this range. It will be interesting to monitor the development of the low today. The trough depth/timing is going to have a lot to say about the final outcome, but it seems many more times than not in these setups, the low tracks a bit too far east to have much impact. Looks like it's over for us. These tropical systems that develop by the Outer Banks are almost always too far east to impact us. OC usually gets it pretty good or a glancing blow. NAM keeps us interested, but the GFS is too far east and Euro is definitely east. Those two both being too far east means the NAM is likely just being the NAM, especially with how it has jumped around the past few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it seems they composed that AFD before looking at the 0z Euro. My gut says the immediate coast gets a glancing blow, but probably not much for our locations. The 12z runs will be telling, lol. Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 13 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Out here, just southwest of Purcellville, I am sitting at 1.58 inches of rain for the last 31 days! The storm two nights ago dumped almost an inch of rain less than 1 mile from my home! Yesterday, the storms literally split around me and I ended up with .04" . I submitted the information to the Climate office. Meanwhile, friends of mine in the eastern part of Loudoun saw 8+ inches of rain in June and over 3 inches the last week! I have brown grass and a dusty dry yard! Weird how that works. I've had summers like that in the Germantown area where storms miss me left and right and I get cracked garden beds and fried grass. This year my area is a rain magnet with almost 8 inches for June and 1.4 for July already. I bet my area gets nailed Saturday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, frd said: Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently. I never was expecting to see much here from the coastal. Almost never works out with a trough so close to our west, outside of having some monstrous blocking Atlantic ridge. In the latest Model Diagnostic discussion (update) from WPC, the preference is basically to split the difference between the 12z and 0z Euro runs lol. Quote Preference: 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF mean blend Confidence: Average ... 07Z update... The 00Z ECMWF's mid-level center of the East Coast low shifted farther away from the coast compared to its previous 12Z cycle, with its surface reflection also moving farther offshore, but with less displacement compared to the upper levels. The 00Z UKMET adjusted in the direction of the 00Z ECMWF but remains a bit farther south with its 850-500 mb low, as does the 00Z CMC. The preference is to be nearest to the average of the GEFS/ECMWF mean positions, which is in between the 00Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF, but closer to the ECMWF position...or between the 12Z and 00Z ECMWF cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Man, running when it’s 82/74 just isn’t fun no matter how slow you go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30. I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM. Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30. I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM. Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. Nope. Nope. Nopity nope. Imagine trying to go for an early morning run with temps in the upper 80s with heat indices in the upper 90s. Currently a, by comparsion, comfortable 84/68 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30. I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM. Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. Too cold for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30. I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM. Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. I went running late Tuesday afternoon and my shirt looked like I had jumped in a pool just 20 minutes in. Last night was hot, but not nearly as humid and more do-able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 WRF-ARW model has 10 inch lollies in southern Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 WB 12Z EURO...back to pounding the Delmarva with some light rain as far back as the '95 corridor. Close enough to keep DCA with cloud cover and below 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 DCA 87 at the 2pm ob. Has been to 88 intrahour. Battle of sun vs clouds vs east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 The Euro is having some continuity issues the past 3 runs. It cant figure out which camp it wants to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: WRF-ARW model has 10 inch lollies in southern Delaware. 12z 3k NAM and now the 12z Euro also have nice lollies down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I think I’m in the Canadian camp with this one...I think most of the activity stays offshore and the system doesn’t get organized enough to have such an organized band of precip to the west of circulation. Would have to be some significant changes in next 24 hours in the structure to really pound the shore like some models are showing. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: New England is melting down over that Euro run so I may need to take refuge here. ADATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I think I’m in the Canadian camp with this one...I think most of the activity stays offshore and the system doesn’t get organized enough to have such an organized band of precip to the west of circulation. Would have to be some significant changes in next 24 hours in the structure to really pound the shore like some models are showing. Just my opinion I think I would have to call it the "ICON camp", as it has been leading the charge with the offshore track/not much precip on west side idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I lean more offshore too but there’s so much track sensitivity here. I think we’re really waiting until the 00z suite of runs for more clarity. That cycle should have recon data included. I concur. Seems the 2 main elements to watch are how rapidly the low gets its act together, and the interplay with the OV energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @C.A.P.E.s yard crushed in the above Euro . No more sprinkler this summer for his yard . Just took a look at the Euro and there's a heck of a strong vort diving through Ohio at 42 hr that wasn't there before lol. The surface low in Ohio gets stronger then the coastal low - sub 1000mb ...interesting. Definitely some partial phasing of the 2 systems it appears . Pretty close in for such changes at h5 This is interesting, and the degree of interaction with that trough/energy is going to be a factor in the ultimate outcome. And lol even if my yard got 5" of rain from this, if it doesn't rain for a week after, that sprinkler will be getting another workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: New England is melting down over that Euro run so I may need to take refuge here. They effed up by making a thread. We know a thing or 2 down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Euro still likes some big heat middle to end of next week. Upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Mount Holly has hoisted a FFW for pretty much their whole forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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