wrb129 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Crazy storm last night here in Harford County. I haven't seen winds like that in a while. Large branches down all over my neighborhood. Heard a crazy woosh noise...possible microburst? 3.25" of rain and a fully flooded basement :/Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 .08" Tuesday and .14" yesterday.....parched still. Just bad luck and a little too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Set a new daily rainfall record with 2.05 inches, all falling in two separate Tstorms about 2 hours apart yesterday evening. Old mark was 1.29 from 1980. So, for the month I am now at 3.92 inches, BUT 1.72 fell on 6th and 2.05 on 23rd. Rest of the month has been dry, dry, dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Excessive rainfall discussion from WPC- South/Central Appalachians/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Ahead of this boundary, very moist and unstable air will be in place. Some weak impulses moving atop this environment should support scattered to widespread convection. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches aided by light southwesterly flow. This is around 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will be modest with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. While convection is expected to move at a decent pace eastward, multiple rounds moving over pockets of lower FFG could result in isolated flash flooding across this region. Not to mention, as the front starts to sag south across southern New England, the propagation vectors will align with the mean wind parallel to the front. This will result in training of convection in some locations. Given this and the convection observed from yesterdays activity, a Marginal Risk was expanded across a large portion of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southward into southern Appalachians and north into the OH Valley. Worked with the local offices and coordinated an upgrade to a Slight Risk across much of the central/southern Appalachians where HREF probabilities were fairly decent and FFG values were fairly low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1.70" for the past three days, which I'm very happy about. But ~3 miles away they are sitting at 4.5", so a little jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Excessive rainfall discussion from WPC- South/Central Appalachians/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Ahead of this boundary, very moist and unstable air will be in place. Some weak impulses moving atop this environment should support scattered to widespread convection. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches aided by light southwesterly flow. This is around 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will be modest with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. While convection is expected to move at a decent pace eastward, multiple rounds moving over pockets of lower FFG could result in isolated flash flooding across this region. Not to mention, as the front starts to sag south across southern New England, the propagation vectors will align with the mean wind parallel to the front. This will result in training of convection in some locations. Given this and the convection observed from yesterdays activity, a Marginal Risk was expanded across a large portion of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southward into southern Appalachians and north into the OH Valley. Worked with the local offices and coordinated an upgrade to a Slight Risk across much of the central/southern Appalachians where HREF probabilities were fairly decent and FFG values were fairly low. yassss more rain please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Disturbance heading over WV should fire some storms up in the region later this afternoon. Satellite shows clouds burning off over the DC-Balt region which should aid in destabilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3.24" for the week. 6.57" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ian said: In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month. Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average July 1-20 1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend 90 degree days - current 21 July 2011 84.5 90 degree days - forecast 27 July 2012 84.0 90 degree day - record 25 July 2010 83.1 July 1993 83.1 July 1999 83.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 NAM and HRRR looked unimpressed with potential for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 54 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month. Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average July 1-20 1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend 90 degree days - current 21 July 2011 84.5 90 degree days - forecast 27 July 2012 84.0 90 degree day - record 25 July 2010 83.1 July 1993 83.1 July 1999 83.0 July 2011 was a beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: NAM and HRRR looked unimpressed with potential for today. Those both had nothing for me Monday and tuesday and I got rain. It also screwed up the DC split too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month. Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average July 1-20 1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend 90 degree days - current 21 July 2011 84.5 90 degree days - forecast 27 July 2012 84.0 90 degree day - record 25 July 2010 83.1 July 1993 83.1 July 1999 83.0 We do have some room although have not tested what would bring it below 2010. NBM is 83.6, which is down 0.2 from last night. 90 deg today would make me more comfortable on the count win. My gut says we will get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 NAM and HRRR looked unimpressed with potential for today.NAM also had a whiff for DC yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: NAM and HRRR looked unimpressed with potential for today. There's no way we get hit 4 days in a row! There's a ball game tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 20 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks like the city of Baltimore is getting some torrential rain. It did. And the lightning was cloud to ground and frightening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, H2O said: Those both had nothing for me Monday and tuesday and I got rain. It also screwed up the DC split too. The CAMs have sucked the past few days. Must be something about this type of pattern/ air mass, with generally hard to pinpoint regions of forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: The CAMs have sucked the past few days. Must be something about this type of pattern/ air mass, with generally hard to pinpoint regions of forcing. Dare I say the GFS has done pretty well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dare I say the GFS has done pretty well? Yeah reasonably well, considering its not able to capture the fine details at a localized scale, like the CAMs are supposed to do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 4 hours ago, Ian said: In classic DC fashion the monthly 90-degree record of 25 no longer looks like a simple victory. We did it. We're a heat town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Seems like CWG was a little too pessimistic about opening day tonight being postponed and concerning the masses. Idk things today don’t look too widespread to me and if it does get that way it seems like it may be later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has the party going through the overnight as well. Looking at Nam h5 vorticity it looks to support some extra forcing overnight . I'm rooting for 4 convective rounds imby totalling 2-3" Certainly looks like activity could persist all night. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Certainly looks like activity could persist all night. Fun stuff. keep talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: My God, Norfolk. Four straight days of 100. That’s big heat. Running an average high of 93.6 and low of 75.8 for a +4.9 departure, with every day except July 2 above average (and that was dead on average). Oh and they have 0.8 inches of total rain for the month. UGLY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Magical HoCo split on the 18z NAM 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: keep talking dirty That's my specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Looks like weak sauce out there to me...not sure what the dirty talk is all about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 91/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Have to see if these storms get any better organized as they push East. Stuff just south of Frederick looks decent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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