Ian Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 12z NAM was definitely warmer than yesterday's runs (87/88), so it is at least giving it a chance. The 12z HRRR looks like about 88 and the 12z GFS is 88 for IAD (the land surface scheme for the metro areas is exaggerating things). Euro as of the 00z run was still 91. You are right though, an 89 would be the way we roll around here. yeah somehow missed that one. just saw NAM MOS is 91 which seems about right. not sure why it would be all that much different than today. have had a fair amount of clouds today. NAM MOS also has 85 for Friday... we're having to earn this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ian said: yeah somehow missed that one. just saw NAM MOS is 91 which seems about right. not sure why it would be all that much different than today. have had a fair amount of clouds today. NAM MOS also has 85 for Friday... we're having to earn this one. if we only drop to 75/76 tonight, maybe we get a boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: if we only drop to 75/76 tonight, maybe we get a boost. nice snippet from LWX AFD... mentions the lows .CLIMATE... A rather notable streak of heat has been ongoing in the immediate Washington DC area for nearly three weeks. As of this afternoon, 20 consecutive days had reached at least 90 F at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA). While it is certainly not unusual to hit 90 F in July in the DC area, multiple weeks without a break are relatively rare, as evidenced by the all- time record which is 21 days (it happened twice in the 1980s -- once ending on August 14th 1980, and again ending on August 18th 1988). The ongoing streak is notable not only for its longevity, but its earlier occurrence in the summer season. If the temperature reaches 90 F on Thursday, the record will be tied. But it`s going to come down to the wire. While the background air mass will be warming, it will also become increasingly humid. The more humid it is, the longer it takes for the air to heat up (humid air is denser and requires more energy to raise its temperature). In weather speak, 850 mb temperatures will be about 1 C warmer than today, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will be increasing several dm. But with the increasing humidity will come a deck of clouds. These clouds should lift and scatter by late morning and may actually help to trap heat tonight leading to a warmer start. But if the clouds linger too long, the air might not have enough time to heat up to 90 F, especially at the airport with an onshore wind right off the Potomac River (the water temperature at nearby Washington Channel is 85 F). Which of these competing factors will win out? It`s not clear just yet, and probably won`t be until at least later tomorrow morning. Guidance available so far today suggests highs will range anywhere from 85 to 93 F at KDCA, with a best-guess consensus of 89 F. But if it does hit 90 F tomorrow, it`s seeming increasingly likely it will continue to hit 90 F for at least several more days after that as the warming trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ian said: nice snippet from LWX AFD... mentions the lows .CLIMATE... A rather notable streak of heat has been ongoing in the immediate Washington DC area for nearly three weeks. As of this afternoon, 20 consecutive days had reached at least 90 F at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (KDCA). While it is certainly not unusual to hit 90 F in July in the DC area, multiple weeks without a break are relatively rare, as evidenced by the all- time record which is 21 days (it happened twice in the 1980s -- once ending on August 14th 1980, and again ending on August 18th 1988). The ongoing streak is notable not only for its longevity, but its earlier occurrence in the summer season. If the temperature reaches 90 F on Thursday, the record will be tied. But it`s going to come down to the wire. While the background air mass will be warming, it will also become increasingly humid. The more humid it is, the longer it takes for the air to heat up (humid air is denser and requires more energy to raise its temperature). In weather speak, 850 mb temperatures will be about 1 C warmer than today, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will be increasing several dm. But with the increasing humidity will come a deck of clouds. These clouds should lift and scatter by late morning and may actually help to trap heat tonight leading to a warmer start. But if the clouds linger too long, the air might not have enough time to heat up to 90 F, especially at the airport with an onshore wind right off the Potomac River (the water temperature at nearby Washington Channel is 85 F). Which of these competing factors will win out? It`s not clear just yet, and probably won`t be until at least later tomorrow morning. Guidance available so far today suggests highs will range anywhere from 85 to 93 F at KDCA, with a best-guess consensus of 89 F. But if it does hit 90 F tomorrow, it`s seeming increasingly likely it will continue to hit 90 F for at least several more days after that as the warming trend continues. Yeah, one of the troubles tomorrow is going to be the SE fetch off the Potomac. No friendly Crystal City bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 83 here. Some backdoor action this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Euro has been increasing temps this weekend/early week lately. 102 for Sun and 101 for Mon at DCA per the 12z run. Closer in than many of the bigger numbers on display of late, though not total support. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ian said: Euro has been increasing temps this weekend/early week lately. 102 for Sun and 101 for Mon at DCA per the 12z run. Closer in than many of the bigger numbers on display of late, though not total support. Euro decently wet for next 10 days too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Another great evening. Dry air and nice breeze Sure is. Stiff east breeze here and 76. Got that sprinkler going too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure is. Stiff east breeze here and 76. Got that sprinkler going too. Tomorrow will only be in the mid 80s before the torch begins Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Gotta get a 100 spot out of this heat wave, right? It just wouldn’t feel right. Any days of big heat (95+)? Sunday through Tuesday look like widespread mid 90s, esp for urban areas. One would think DC has a decent shot at 100 at least one of those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 53 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sunday through Tuesday look like widespread mid 90s, esp for urban areas. One would think DC has a decent shot at 100 at least one of those days. 06z euro trying to push many areas past the century mark on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Starting out from a low that is 4 degrees warmer than yesterday. We’ve got this. Go go go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z euro trying to push many areas past the century mark on sunday. GFS is also. NAM at range is upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Saw the Minotaur IV launch in Chincoteague yesterday. 10/10 would watch again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Still cloudy and breezy in Arlington. Getting slightly nervous about the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still cloudy and breezy in Arlington. Getting slightly nervous about the streak. Yeah, this is going to be a tough one. edit - 13z HRRR tries to get us there, but it also thinks that it is 5 degrees warmer than it is right now at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 At least records are supposed to cluster right? #DCing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 I’ll make my prediction now. Skies clear by 2 and temps soar. The 90° will happen around 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, H2O said: I’ll make my prediction now. Skies clear by 2 and temps soar. The 90° will happen around 4:30 Does look like it's finally making headway clearing from west to east. July the 16th be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 crossing my fingers and hoping we end the streak today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 12z GFS still printing 100 for Sunday. NAM looks like 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Don’t feel like it’s going to happen today... Clouds hanging in there and storms coming in from the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Rain chances for tomorrow look paltry. Looked solid a couple days ago. Front timing earlier in the day seems to be the big culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Saw the Minotaur IV launch in Chincoteague yesterday. 10/10 would watch again. Mosquito Joe needs to drop his napalm on that entire region. I've never seen so many mosquitoes in my life. Leaving there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Some of the models had a distinct W to E temperature gradient. That is indeed showing up, at least through early afternoon. 86 IAD, 85 my house, 83 DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Suddenly got hot in my corner of N Arlington with mostly sunny skies. If we don’t start seeing progress soon, I’ll go cover the temperature gauge in tin foil, or something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 PWSs starting to warm up around DCA - i guess we'll see. Clearing out tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 86 at 1:35pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 When's the next time we're gonna get an 80/50 temp/dp split? Seems like that never happens anymore here in the dog days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: When's the next time we're gonna get an 80/50 temp/dp split? Seems like that never happens anymore here in the dog days. October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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