87storms Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 that's definitely an active storm in southern moco. getting a fireworks display here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, 87storms said: that's definitely an active storm in southern moco. getting a fireworks display here. Incredible rain producer here. Over 2 inches in ~30 min. Several lightning strikes within a half-mile, including one that couldn't be more than 100 yards away. Once the storm passes, the kids and I will head out to see if we can find where it struck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 I smell a fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I smell a fringe Nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Nice thunderstorm took a weird track right up I-270 and died out over Germantown, delivering a much-needed 0.8. The lawn and garden are happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at the Eps there's some minor support for the late week coastal low throwing back moisture to i95 corridor but majority miss us or are coastal hits so a Nam scenario looks unlikely atm . What a surprise..right Inside 72 hours so the ops should probably be given alot of weight and the Euro is a miss as well . Maybe we'll get Bob's and EJs cat5 up the bay in September. Edit... That said ....18z Euro comes in with a more robust vort signature for Thurs/Fri closer to the Nam look . At the surface mostly a miss still for i95 and west but a 1005mb low sitting near OC and a good bit closer to the coast . NE Md pummeled lol....N. DE towards Jersey get in on the effects . If this was winter......we would all start our cliff diving ASAP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Nailed it YES but I got fringed some weeks back. It all averages out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, frd said: Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark. The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Euro popping a 599dm ridge over Ohio River Valley next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The upcoming period looks active/interesting, with the tropical system, followed by a trough and possible stalled front, with yet another upper low in the vicinity early next week. Beyond that pretty much all guidance agrees on the idea of building impressive Atlantic ridging towards the end of next week. As advertised, it looks pretty brutal. Hopefully it wont become a fixture. Only a matter of time before there's a semi permanent Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) over the U.S during every summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Someone is going to get flooded out later this week. It's not going to be widespread, but if I were Historic EC, I'd be nervous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Someone is going to get flooded out later this week. It's not going to be widespread, but if I were Historic EC, I'd be nervous. Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? Looks like dangerous rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 We can trust the NAM 3k for quasitropical storms, right? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We can trust the NAM 3k for quasitropical storms, right? It's simply the best. No contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I’ll take the @C.A.P.E. route and set up the sprinkler. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’ll take the @C.A.P.E. route and set up the sprinkler. Considering you can probably shift this east 50-100 miles, not a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Congrats People of the Bay on the GFS. Looks a little tighter with the low. Slightly stronger and defo gets the heavier precip further inland this run. Looks like a little more dig with the trough dropping in over the GL and the Atlantic ridge also flexed a bit on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Just like in the winter, the NAM will lead the way and be the one we all hoped it would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I'm not ready to buy in to heavier rain making it back to the I-95 corridor, but I'm definitely not ruling it out. The NAM nest is certainly most aggressive, but there is some support from other CAMs for the precip bands extending further west, although even those solutions make it clear that the NAM nest is too fast. It's also worth noting that the GFS tends to not generate sufficient precip on the west side of east coast storms, although there is more evidence for that with winter storms than with tropical hybrids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 12z GFS is an absolute torch over the central and eastern U.S starting around the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 GEFS and EPS really swining for the fences as well. Canadian even pumps like a 594 dm ridge. Big EML / derecho favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 The 90 degree streak hits 13 at DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Fringed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I have stepped away from the sprinkler.. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Man, just need another 50-100 mile bump west. That said, I will trade a fringe here for a direct hit in winter (provided we don't have the crappy temps we had last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Fringed. We need like 10 damn miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 PSU getting fringed summer style? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z Euro is more “robust” with 98L. Few mb stronger and a nasty axis of heavy rain into DE and parts of the Bay. Even gets some TS gusts out there verbatim. Wasn't someone just saying the NAM shall lead the way lol? Euro looks pretty similar to the 12 km, although it NAMS my yard more than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now