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July Banter 2020


George BM
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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

What could they have done now? I hope it’s enough for Snyder to have sell the team and then a new stadium at the old RFK site.

early reports are saying it might involve drug fuels sex parties, pimping out cheerleaders and more.  Gruden and other team officials linked and Snyder knew.  The pbp radio guy who is a Snyder sycophant suddenly quit yesterday.  

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

early reports are saying it might involve drug fuels sex parties, pimping out cheerleaders and more.  Gruden and other team officials linked and Snyder knew.  The pbp radio guy who is a Snyder sycophant suddenly quit yesterday.  

and the team chose not to comment on it. which is enough to raise an eyebrow. 

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22 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Anybody listen in to last evening's virtual Baltimore county school board of ed meeting? I did ...even though I live in Carroll county I wanted to get a feel for what  other counties are doing with respect with kids going back to school in the  fall . I listened for 45 minutes and what a disorganized mess it seemed to be . Every couple minutes there was dead air and someone would say ..I think we lost Mr . Smith..lol or someone would be reading off line 6 and the other members would be reading off line 4 for some reason :lol:. I lost interest quick and I swear I didnt hear anything about kids . The only thing I heard that made any sense was someone motioned to have an "in person" board meeting at one of the highschool auditoriums. They said making big decisions by email or virtual isn't  the right way to go about it .Hopefully Carroll county's live meeting tonight goes wayyy better . 

You should have dropped into the FCPS Town hall. 
 

I thought they were further along but it became painfully clear that once the questions started coming in they have only spent time on their preferred hybrid option. Had no plan on how to make masks mandatory. No plan on when someone tests positive. No plan on refusals to wear masks. When asked about cleaning in the classrooms of the secondary level one panelist replied that , there is not enough time between classes to even wipe down desks and would have to rely on mask wearing and personal hygiene. Sorry I do not rely on anyone else’s personal hygiene especially teenage kids. The only thing I got out of it was that we have defiantly confirmed our girls will be doing virtual learning. They touched on how it will not be like this past spring with more accountability. My whole take on the meeting... these school systems are in way over their heads when it comes to cleaning and keeping staff and students safe. They need to stay with what they know and just build up a very robust online learning platform. They do not have the budget to take this on. Our BOE will have the final decision and then the state BOE. There is no good answer. 

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is a very difficult decision. I’m torn. I really miss teaching live. I want to get back. Imo virtual instruction is woefully inadequate. Primary and even secondary education is just as much about the social aspect as the curriculum. Most job specific training comes as an adult. Yes kids needs basic reading and writing but mostly they need to learn how to analyze the world and participate in productive conversations that produce and expand knowledge. You can’t do that in an online class. Not very well.  

I also have an issue with how some teacher unions are marketing their policy advocacy.  “Dead kids” is bunk.  More kids are likely to die from accidents and other infections ancillary to attending school than covid.  The real threat is to the staff and the community.  And there are signs covid could cause less lethal but still serious side effects in some kids.  But all that is harder to fit in a sign then “dead kids”.

That said I’m also not sure how feasible an open is. The odds of avoiding mass closing seen low. Covid is still around. We just had a student in summer school diagnosed. Luckily it’s an online program but it highlights the issue. Every time a student gets diagnosed groups and schools will get closed.  I’m curious to see a district announce their mitigation strategy in the event a student gets diagnosed then a simulation run by a legitimate reputable source on how that would play out.  I’ve not seen that yet mostly because schools are being guarded with clear strategies. They don’t want to be boxed in. But it makes it impossible to run accurate impact calculus without those details. 

My girls want to be back too. But as I said above after the virtual town hall last night it became clear to me that school systems are in way over their heads with this. They had no plan in place yet when staff or a student tests positive after having been in the classroom. There is no plan yet in place about wearing masks in the classroom. There is to be no cleaning of shared surfaces in between secondary classroom changes. As of now relying on mask wearing and personal hygiene. Daycares have no concrete plans to work with the 2 day on 3 day virtual hybrid option as of yet. Teachers will swipe into the school and that means they are not symptomatic. Talk about on and off ramps with online only and in school.

The only thing that I took from the meeting that I am happy about is that hybrid or full school option there will be a 100% virtual option available to all parents. I personally know of a 5th grade teacher and a BOE member who are wanting an all online first semester. Will just have to wait this out. 

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Current temp is 145 degreees with a DP of 96. Heat index 217F. Latest mesoanalysis has 20,000 J/kg of SBCAPE but a strong cap with -200 CINH. The saving grace is strong multidirectional shear of 150 knots which once the cap breaks, cloud tops of -200C are possible with storms breaking the 150,000 foot cloud tops mark. 

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23 hours ago, yuki neko said:

Was at Darnestown Park last night. Still kinda bright but I could barely make it out with the naked eye. Much better with binoculars. I bet if you went farther down route 28 you could find open fields that were darker.

image.png.2be04f715ea80a1b60f1dc26f89aa6de.png

What time was this?

 

At 10:00 I saw essentially barely a smudge, it was oriented like the comet so I’m pretty sure I saw it but it was very hard to see.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Current temp is 145 degreees with a DP of 96. Heat index 217F. Latest mesoanalysis has 20,000 J/kg of SBCAPE but a strong cap with -200 CINH. The saving grace is strong multidirectional shear of 150 knots which once the cap breaks, cloud tops of -200C are possible with storms breaking the 150,000 foot cloud tops mark. 

Looks like we just got the watch! :tomato:

 

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 in effect until 1AM EDT

 

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION...

 

Hazards: 

Numerous extreme and potentially deadly wind gusts up to 200mph

Numerous giant and potentially deadly hail events of 12+ inches in diameter

A few tornadoes likely with an intense tornado or two possible

 

Discussion: 

With near 20,000 J/kg MLCAPE, 3,000+ J/kg DCAPE and high-end extreme effective bulk-shear (120-150+kts) storms will fire up over the higher terrain over the next few hours as the cap continues to erode. With the shear in place supercells will be the main storm-mode. These supercells will move eastward off of the higher terrain through the watch area through the evening. This is a potentially deadly situation. There may be wind gusts equivalent to that of a violent tornado and hail large enough to penetrate through roofs and multiple floors/ceilings of homes and structures in general. While there is definitely the possibility of a couple tornadoes given the extreme effective SRH (700-1200 m2/s2) the large difference between the temperature and dewpoint temperature (145/96 temperature and dewpoint respectively at KIAD) cloud bases will be very high so tornadoes will have a difficult time sustaining themselves, especially given the extreme downbursts that may undercut their inflow. Nevertheless, a few tornadoes may still become strong briefly given the intensity of the updrafts that are expected. Storms should move out into the ocean by 4z (Midnight EDT).

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56 minutes ago, George BM said:

Looks like we just got the watch! :tomato:

 

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 in effect until 1AM EDT

 

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION...

 

Hazards: 

Numerous extreme and potentially deadly wind gusts up to 200mph

Numerous giant and potentially deadly hail events of 12+ inches in diameter

A few tornadoes likely with an intense tornado or two possible

 

Discussion: 

With near 20,000 J/kg MLCAPE, 3,000+ J/kg DCAPE and high-end extreme effective bulk-shear (120-150+kts) storms will fire up over the higher terrain over the next few hours as the cap continues to erode. With the shear in place supercells will be the main storm-mode. These supercells will move eastward off of the higher terrain through the watch area through the evening. This is a potentially deadly situation. There may be wind gusts equivalent to that of a violent tornado and hail large enough to penetrate through roofs and multiple floors/ceilings of homes and structures in general. While there is definitely the possibility of a couple tornadoes given the extreme effective SRH (700-1200 m2/s2) the large difference between the temperature and dewpoint temperature (145/96 temperature and dewpoint respectively at KIAD) cloud bases will be very high so tornadoes will have a difficult time sustaining themselves, especially given the extreme downbursts that may undercut their inflow. Nevertheless, a few tornadoes may still become strong briefly given the intensity of the updrafts that are expected. Storms should move out into the ocean by 4z (Midnight EDT).

I have cracked open a 90 minute IPA to watch the destruction from a distance.

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14 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think there will be more.

There needs to be if we want Snyder out. He can claim he didn't know (even though he did) and those accused have already been fired, or resigned. 

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