Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2020 Author Share Posted July 15, 2020 Would hopefully also dampen the extreme heat expected this weekend.Fri and especially Sat will be in the 90’s either way. Probably at least mid 90’s on Sat. Sun would be in question, but even the Euro and it’s MCS solution has 90’s then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 First day to not hit at least 80 degrees here and at MLI since June 23. Nice soaker this afternoon. Steady tropical rain with some very soaking downpours. Up to 0.84" with a good chance to top the 1" mark before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Up to 1.07" now as it's winding down. SPC mesoanalysis shows PWs up near 2", which would explain the nice rates even under lighter radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Up to 1.07" now as it's winding down. SPC mesoanalysis shows PWs up near 2", which would explain the nice rates even under lighter radar returns. You aren’t kidding. Getting the old tropical style fire hosing right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: You aren’t kidding. Getting the old tropical style fire hosing right now. Looks like a small trowel-like feature, pretty cool. It's been nearly stationary for quite awhile stretching back this way. Still some off and on light rain here, and up to 1.20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like a small trowel-like feature, pretty cool. It's been nearly stationary for quite awhile stretching back this way. Still some off and on light rain here, and up to 1.20". Yeah been parked over me for over an hour. Give me this kind of pivot in the winter months 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah been parked over me for over an hour. Give me this kind of pivot in the winter months Wow, and Dekalb is still reporting heavy rain as of about 15mins ago from the pencil thin band of heavy rain. Yeah if this was a winter setup there would be a dramatic elevation in totals in that narrow band. The HRRR runs from this morning were indicating some strong winds this evening over northeast IL. Didn't come to pass, but there have been some feisty gusts within the little comma head of heavy precip heading towards Kankakee. Pontiac had 38mph gusts a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Man Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah been parked over me for over an hour. Give me this kind of pivot in the winter months I was just about to say lol. Soaking IMBY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Wow, and Dekalb is still reporting heavy rain as of about 15mins ago from the pencil thin band of heavy rain. Yeah if this was a winter setup there would be a dramatic elevation in totals in that narrow band. The HRRR runs from this morning were indicating some strong winds this evening over northeast IL. Didn't come to pass, but there have been some feisty gusts within the little comma head of heavy precip heading towards Kankakee. Pontiac had 38mph gusts a while ago. yeah, looks like that AM HRRR run was about 50 miles and 10-15KT off. As of the 10PM obs: DKB: 1.64" MDW: 0.77" ORD: 0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Wow PIA got soaked. Nearly 3" in an hour and over 5" for the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Several models were right that this system would split around east-central Iowa. I only received 0.09". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Euro still really bullish on the linear MCS sunday morning, has incredible shelf cloud potential if it works out obv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 GFS isn't that different, timing is obv about as unfavorable as it gets but given the strong llj and airmass might mitigate a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 Nice break in the summer weather up in northern Iowa. Mason City got all the way down to 44 early this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Nice break in the summer weather up in northern Iowa. Mason City got all the way down to 44 early this morning. Wow! It was 62º here. I had no idea it was supposed to be cold in northern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 This is going to be tough to reconcile. Today was going to be a rainout with the potential for severe storms. Where is either one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Euro still really bullish on the linear MCS sunday morning, has incredible shelf cloud potential if it works out obv still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: still there whats the timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Baum said: whats the timing? Verbatim rolling into Northern Illinois between 4-8 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Baum said: whats the timing? This is an early bird lake shelf watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: still there Can see it lurking on the 3 km NAM too. Actually pretty cool looping that run... you see it start with an east/northeast movement and then take the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 16, 2020 Share Posted July 16, 2020 This setup is a definite type and these mcs do have a tendency to bite hard right, especially with good llj support as advertised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Great evening to head out and shoot some pics of the comet. This was along the Mississippi River just north of Fulton IL earlier. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 incredible dude^ euro holding firm the airmass over the area is going to be extremely juicy, very moist and strong llj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 really nice overnight afd from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 MPX afd mentioned the D word. (Derecho) should be a very impressive mcs moving out of ND this evening. Going to be a fun night of radar tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Liking the ARW tomorrow night and Euro continues to be locked in. If we had northwest flow aloft, would've been better for faster propagation and maintaining severe farther south. That said, temps well above 80 deep into evening with 70s Td, and breezy southerly winds should yield at most a shallow stable layer. Expecting the outflow and 850-300 mb thicknesses pointing southeast ahead of the MCS to do the trick in keeping it decently strong farther south than you'd normally expect given less than ideal 500 mb flow and time of night. As Alek has been mentioning, in support of this idea is strong low level jet pulling from a very steep lapse rate plume, and large (>2k j/kg) MUCAPE reservoir. Best chance for severe winds in LOT CWA looking like northern tier but could see severe threat extending south toward I-80. The faster movement the better to maintain intensity farther south. Edit: spoke to SPC day 2 update forecaster and it sounds like he's gonna pull the risk areas farther south, with slight possibly down near or slightly across WI/IL state line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Storm chasing yesterday with my next door neighbor. Had a rare 5% hatch for tornados. Looks like 3 touchdowns SW of where this photo was taken. I missed the best stuff by about 5-10 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Snip from a classic DVN AFD 9 years ago today... SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Snip from a classic DVN AFD 9 years ago today... SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA. I just checked the radar loop from that day. The cap clearly did not break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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