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July 2020 General Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Would hopefully also dampen the extreme heat expected this weekend.

Fri and especially Sat will be in the 90’s either way. Probably at least mid 90’s on Sat.

 

Sun would be in question, but even the Euro and it’s MCS solution has 90’s then as well.

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51 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah been parked over me for over an hour. Give me this kind of pivot in the winter months 

Wow, and Dekalb is still reporting heavy rain as of about 15mins ago from the pencil thin band of heavy rain.  Yeah if this was a winter setup there would be a dramatic elevation in totals in that narrow band.  

The HRRR runs from this morning were indicating some strong winds this evening over northeast IL.  Didn't come to pass, but there have been some feisty gusts within the little comma head of heavy precip heading towards Kankakee.  Pontiac had 38mph gusts a while ago.

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26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, and Dekalb is still reporting heavy rain as of about 15mins ago from the pencil thin band of heavy rain.  Yeah if this was a winter setup there would be a dramatic elevation in totals in that narrow band.  

The HRRR runs from this morning were indicating some strong winds this evening over northeast IL.  Didn't come to pass, but there have been some feisty gusts within the little comma head of heavy precip heading towards Kankakee.  Pontiac had 38mph gusts a while ago.

yeah, looks like that AM HRRR run was about 50 miles and 10-15KT off. 

As of the 10PM obs:

DKB: 1.64"

MDW: 0.77"

ORD: 0.40"

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Liking the ARW tomorrow night and Euro continues to be locked in. If we had northwest flow aloft, would've been better for faster propagation and maintaining severe farther south. That said, temps well above 80 deep into evening with 70s Td, and breezy southerly winds should yield at most a shallow stable layer. Expecting the outflow and 850-300 mb thicknesses pointing southeast ahead of the MCS to do the trick in keeping it decently strong farther south than you'd normally expect given less than ideal 500 mb flow and time of night.

 

As Alek has been mentioning, in support of this idea is strong low level jet pulling from a very steep lapse rate plume, and large (>2k j/kg) MUCAPE reservoir. Best chance for severe winds in LOT CWA looking like northern tier but could see severe threat extending south toward I-80. The faster movement the better to maintain intensity farther south.

 

Edit: spoke to SPC day 2 update forecaster and it sounds like he's gonna pull the risk areas farther south, with slight possibly down near or slightly across WI/IL state line.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Snip from a classic DVN AFD 9 years ago today...
 

SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A
DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.
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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Snip from a classic DVN AFD 9 years ago today...
 

SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGH CAPES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP BREAKS. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN A
DESTRUCTIVE DERECHO WITH WINDS OVER 100 MPH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.

I just checked the radar loop from that day.  The cap clearly did not break.

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