wdrag Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Instability should increase today and especially Wednesday with modeled cape and ki increasing a bit as the cold pool aloft drifts nearby. EC lightning density also supports. Low cloud and/or cooling sea breezes probably minimize strong storm potential for the eastern portion of LI. Have not delved into detail of the modeled soundings but yesterdays activity should be repeated, and maybe more so, but not quite the same locations. I'm favoring NYS/NNJ and probably also down from extreme sw CT into the NY metro. It's possible several locations will have as much as 2.5" of rain by Wednesday evening while most of us have, as posted by WPC (less than 1/2"). Hail sizes...unknown, but certainly in some of the afternoon storms. More rainbows - yes. Wind gusts, usually below 35kt, but as per yesterday, several storms might pop damaging wind. Hail and damaging wind are probably not outlooked by SPC through 09z/30 issuance, due to uncertainty and likelihood of not matching their areal coverage criteria for alerting. This continues last weekends interesting weather and added needed rainfall for the NY forum, in what appears to me, another 10 days-multiple episodes of thunderstorms with this noted in the General Discussion Observations topic. Would like to keep this thread to June 30-July 1. Hope thunderstorm production lives up to expectations- I think the stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon, barring low overcast arriving from New England. Yesterdays LSR map attached and will delete it late today, after the first round. 630A/30 One other note: OKX AFD from early this morning has it well covered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Saw pics from a guy in Poughkeepsie. Nearly golf ball sized hail. Impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Have some incredible hail damage on the UWS from last night. Trees are shredded, based on videos I saw from coworkers that were here last night the hail was golf ball size and accumulated. I wish I was here to see it. Now on to the cleanup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Alot of trees down in my area from the storms last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 moderate heavy shower in manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 3 day in a row with a thunderstorm here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Absolute deluge here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Very ominous skies with these little cells to my south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 nadda here, everything around me all day, threatening skies but thats it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 incredible rains here right now with rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Cfa said: Very ominous skies with these little cells to my south. Storms weaken on the north shore and blow up on the south shore. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: Storms weaken on the north shore and blow up on the south shore. Weird Probably where seabreeze front is, since the clouds have limited our heating and the movement of the seabreeze front northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 3 hours ago, uofmiami said: Probably where seabreeze front is, since the clouds have limited our heating and the movement of the seabreeze front northward. too bad we didn't get another one like yesterday's north to south moving system that would have hit anyone in its path regardless of geographic location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Have some incredible hail damage on the UWS from last night. Trees are shredded, based on videos I saw from coworkers that were here last night the hail was golf ball size and accumulated. I wish I was here to see it. Now on to the cleanup. in the videos I saw it actually looked like blowing and drifting snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 I can see a tower nicely to me Northeast from Rt 17 in Mahwah. I assume based on radar it’s from the storm all the way up by I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Nothing here today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 Got some good, beneficial rains off and on today. We could use a nice, stalled tropical storm to help us break the drought, though. The lack of moisture is odd in 2020. Lack of rain or snow during the winter months, lack of rain during spring.. definitely thought we were getting close to putting some red flag warnings up. Hopefully the rains we're getting bust the drought and don't let our temps get too high next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, TriPol said: Got some good, beneficial rains off and on today. We could use a nice, stalled tropical storm to help us break the drought, though. The lack of moisture is odd in 2020. Lack of rain or snow during the winter months, lack of rain during spring.. definitely thought we were getting close to putting some red flag warnings up. Hopefully the rains we're getting bust the drought and don't let our temps get too high next week. and to think coming into 2020 it was months and months of above average precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: and to think coming into 2020 it was months and months of above average precipitation Some stations including mine, had over 60" of precip in both 2018 and 2019...Dec had record precip here with 8.19"...its really been just a two month dry spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 I was driving around CT today working, it rained moderately a few times but nothing special. There were some great dark sky periods but again, nothing really special. My wife said it rained here (Mahopac) but not much at all, it was dry when I got home at 6. Edit: looks like .12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 1, 2020 Author Share Posted July 1, 2020 Yesterdays expectation was not realized...unsure whether we can this afternoon (thunder/iso small hail/G 35 KT)? Agree w OKX early morning AFD on pulse svr. Looks maybe a tad more unstable today...definitely need temps several degrees warmer later today to have a chance of realizing bigger southward moving storms. I doubt if I'll comment during the day. Will produce a 2 day summary (precip estimate) of rainfall tomorrow. Yesterday's (since 12z/30) is attached. (0.07 here in Wantage yesterday afternoon). 609A EDT-1009Z/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 Looks like a flash flooder forming over queens. I can see the towers from the uws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 Cell just popped up to my west in the Basking Ridge area. Can hear some intermittent rumbling. Edit: just had what sounded like a closer strike. Hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 Just now, Cyg12 said: Cell just popped up to my west in the Basking Ridge area. Can hear some intermittent rumbling. Yeah I hear it as well. Not moving very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I hear it as well. Not moving very much I hear it too. Really hoping that cell drops south to give us some much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 just heard a rumble of thunder as well. First time hearing that these last few days Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 That cell is just to my east, lots of thunder...gonna miss it again...we haven't had more than a couple quick showers all week...barely enough to wet the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I hear it too. Really hoping that cell drops south to give us some much needed rain. Just a light shower here. The heavy stuff eludes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 1, 2020 Author Share Posted July 1, 2020 Hi! Forenoon update... looking more like what I thought would happen yesterday, even yesterday during the height of the activity. Per radar 1540z radar and OKX response... am thinking we're off to a much better start. Includes radar determined ISOLATED hailers, and torrents NY metro. Let's see what evolves. 1541z/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 1, 2020 Share Posted July 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Just a light shower here. The heavy stuff eludes us Yep, same old story. Heavy rain missing us to the north, east, south and west. It's almost comical how the downpours always miss us in every direction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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