July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Allsnow]

Euro very wet this week into next weekend. 

[dWave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty big dew point spread between the North Shore and South Shore.

LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY   94  46

Wantagh          N/A     82  72 

 

I went to Robert Moses, fairly warm (around 80?) and quite humid down there. Could feel the heat more in western Nassau and a wall of heat that put AC to the test north of the LIE into the BX.  95 here but a dew point 54.

On a side note I cant remember ever seen waters so turquoise around here, alot of ppl were marveling at it. 

[HailMan06]

23 minutes ago, dWave said:

I went to Robert Moses, fairly warm (around 80?) and quite humid down there. Could feel the heat more in western Nassau and a wall of heat that put AC to the test north of the LIE into the BX.  95 here but a dew point 54.

On a side note I cant remember ever seen waters so turquoise around here, alot of ppl were marveling at it. 

A westerly wind causes upwelling which encourages algae growth. Easterly winds shut that whole process down resulting in clearer waters.

[dWave]

47 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

A westerly wind causes upwelling which encourages algae growth. Easterly winds shut that whole process down resulting in clearer waters.

Makes sense, I never gave it much thought. I always think about upswellings effect in water temps.

Dew point shot up last hr. Low 50s to around 70. Temp down to 88. Dry mid 90s felt better. Actual 95 more tolerable than heat index of 95.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, HailMan06 said:

A westerly wind causes upwelling which encourages algae growth. Easterly winds shut that whole process down resulting in clearer waters.

Pretty much spot on. It also has to do with water temps, the warmer the better for clearer waters and how much mixing there has been from surf. I have seen the ocean go from turquoise to murky brown from the start of a hurricane swell. Offshore water temps at the NY harbor buoy are exceptionally warm for so early in the summer, already at 76 degrees! This should help with convection this week. 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, much of the region saw temperatures top out in the 90s in much of the region. Tomorrow will likely feature similar temperatures.

Philadelphia had a 95° high temperature, marking its 4th consecutive 90° or warmer day. With a high temperature of 93°, Washington, DC registered its 10th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 11-22, 2019 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 12 consecutive days.

Number of 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 5):

Albany: 8 (2019: 12)
Allentown: 6 (2019: 24)
Baltimore: 14 (2019: 59)
Boston: 1 (2019: 15)
Burlington: 10 (2019: 8)
Harrisburg: 7 (2019: 33)
Islip: 0 (2019: 8)
New York City: 5 (2019: 15)
Newark: 8 (2019: 27)
Philadelphia: 9 (2019: 35)
Washington, DC: 14 (2019: 62)

Excessive heat will likely build over the Central Plains this week. Some of that heat will then try to expand eastward. The potential for the season's first heat wave in New York City remains a possibility starting later this week. However, the probability of that outcome has declined in some of the more recent guidance.

The predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -0.62.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.188.

On July 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.223 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.631.

That was the 15th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. The last time the MJO had a longer stretch in Phase 1 occurred during September 21-October 8, 2019 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 35 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Finally, on July 4, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 8.507 million square kilometers. That was the lowest figure on record for July 4. The old record was 8.598 million square kilometers, which was set in 2016.

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 96 here.

Current temp 87/DP 61/RH 42%

[wdrag]

What's up w 18z GFS (wet overnight into parts of NY forum)?  I do see a shower heading se from NYS for sw CT. Hmmm? Will check in the morning to see if anything happened. (HRRR is dry, so far). 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty big dew point spread between the North Shore and South Shore.

LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY   94  46

Wantagh          N/A     82  72 

 

LGA went from 95/49 to 88/66 when the sea breeze came across 

[Cfa]

It’s crazy how ISP hasn’t hit 90 yet, maybe tomorrow they will. Today was my 7th 90.

[dmillz25]

25 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It’s crazy how ISP hasn’t hit 90 yet, maybe tomorrow they will. Today was my 7th 90.

Yeah I have 9 90 degree days

[PB-99]

3K NAM and HRRR looks active tomorrow for Monmouth County.

[SACRUS]

7/5

LGA: 96
EWR: 95
BLM: 95
TTN: 95
New Brnswk: 95
PHL: 95
TEB: 94
NYC: 92
ACY: 90
JFK: 88
ISP: 86

[Rtd208]

Dew point and humidity back on the rise here.

Current temp 77/DP 71/RH 80%

[wdrag]

I see one shower crossed the western part to CT last night--insignificant. 18z GFS was spatially far too wet - in our area. Poor 6-12 hr minor qpf performance. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 2.5degs. AN.

The next 15 days on the GFS is now a more tamed   76/92>>>>>84.0 = +6.0

77* here at 6am, m. clear.(74%RH).       82* by Noon.

[bluewave]

This could  be a new record for backdoor cold fronts from late May into early July.
 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

As previously modeled and noted by many on this forum...a busy 7 days upcoming for heavy convection-and challenges, not much different from previous days posts.  My own concerns are prior to Friday-weekend. Have little doubt about isolated 4+ inch amounts in our NJ/se NYS forum area by Thursday evening (multi day total) but where, and when its greatest impact is less certain. Difficult to escape a few SVR, FF events (metro runoff)..again where?. Monitor NWS products and your own for more detail on reality. I don't want to look too far ahead, so am not going to focus on Friday-weekend for a couple more days. Need to see some qpf production between now and Thursday. 

[gravitylover]

So it looks like todays storms will be further south and the mid Hudson Valley will be mostly dry, is that right? I need to run up to a little north of Albany and just want to know what to look forward to.

[IrishRob17]

28 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So it looks like todays storms will be further south and the mid Hudson Valley will be mostly dry, is that right? I need to run up to a little north of Albany and just want to know what to look forward to.

They should be.

 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

So it looks like todays storms will be further south and the mid Hudson Valley will be mostly dry, is that right? I need to run up to a little north of Albany and just want to know what to look forward to.

SPC thinking and some of the modeling has it unstable in se NYS this afternoon.  I see GFS qpf bullseyes, a large one in central NJ but another near the southern Catskills.  If you see Cu Congestus or Towering Cu around 11A... you'll be good for strong storms nearby. I write too often in idling time due to the pandemic, but also from a selfish standpoint. I dont want to have to water our gardens every night and am quite fortunate to have a pool. Drought means I have to use well water (precious). So, I am looking to at least hear thunder (Terrier barking) and we both should have a storm but... impact could be quite minor, or briefly severe. IE look for action but whether a direct hit???

[Rtd208]

Current temp 82/DP 66/RH 59%

[donsutherland1]

At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

[SACRUS]

85/68 here off of a 96 yesterday.  Warm and wet the next 6 days.  Today more 90s ahead of cooler flow and storms.  Tuesday looks to be cloudy/ more stomry and NE flow should keep 90s south and west of the are.  Wed if enough Sun some more 90s but plenty of storms in the PM.  Thu my be the quieter day with temps near 90 again.  ULL (low) impacting the area Fri PM and into Saturday before clearing out.

Sun 7/12 - 7/14 : not as warm and perhaps not as wet as this period with strong heat building into plins and GL.  ECM and some guidance  has a very strong ridge centered over the Mid West way out in 9 days 7/15.  We'll see if that materializes and could provide the allusive triple digit readings. 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

Lots of very warm air around even to the north so its been taking  while for the typical backdoor effects to settle in 850 temps near 18C right now SW winds.

[dmillz25]

Up to 87 already here

[dWave]

Low was 77, now 89

[uncle W]

89 now after a low of 70...

[forkyfork]

ewr hit 90 on se winds after a backdoor fropa. you love to see it

[Cfa]

92 here after a low of 72.

ISP should have hit 90, it was at 89 an hour ago.