LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, uncle W said: 96 max...72 min today...this summer is relentless... Looking forward to next summer lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How did they do that? it's been overcast all day here! There was some sunshine and LGA started off very warm in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 The temperature reached 96° today at LaGuardia Airport. That was the 19th day this month on which the temperature reached 90° or higher (old record: 18 days, 2010) and 12th day on which it reached 95° or higher (old record: 11 days, 1999). Across the region, high temperatures included: Allentown: 92° Baltimore: 97° Harrisburg: 96° New York City-LGA: 96° New York City-NYC: 92° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 94° 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 30): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 18 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 35 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 8 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 18 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 25 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 24 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 16 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 22 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 26 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 37 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 18 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 18 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain and even a thunderstorm. It will be noticeably cooler. Nevertheless, in the wake of the system, warmer weather will return and likely continue through at least the first week of August. The first week of August will likely be wetter than normal across parts of the region. Rainfall amounts could be enhanced depending on the track of Isaias early next week. Some of the guidance brings it near or across Long Island early next week. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 83.0°. July will likely end with a mean temperature of 82.7° there. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was -17.85. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.998. On July 29, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.102 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.377. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0°. Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 All eyes on Isaias, but Sunday could be a big time severe weather day. Probably more so for upstate NY/PA, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 7/30 LGA: 96 TTN: 95 New Brnswck: 95 PHL: 95 BLM: 94 TEB: 94 EWR: 94 ACY: 92 NYC: 92 ISP: 89 JFK: 88 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looking forward to next summer lol? yeah if you believe in the 11 yr hot summer cycle...high minimums is the biggest story so far and there is no end in sight...the cycle is mostly la nina years or developing nina years starting with 1955...1977 is the only el nino...going back to the 1800's 1977 and 1911 sre the only el nino years in that cycle... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Gotta see when storms hit as the 1AM obs may be the maxes for Friday otherwise mostly 70s tomorrow. Sunday pending on clouds could be sneaky hot with 850MB tems >16c - 18c 9PM Roundup EWR: 87 LGA: 83 NYC: 82 TEB: 81 JFK: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 35 minutes ago, uncle W said: yeah if you believe in the 11 yr hot summer cycle...high minimums is the biggest story so far and there is no end in sight...the cycle is mostly la nina years or developing nina years starting with 1955...1977 is the only el nino...going back to the 1800's 1977 and 1911 sre the only el nino years in that cycle... funny thing is we still hit 104 in the 1977 el nino summer and had that big black out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: funny thing is we still hit 104 in the 1977 el nino summer and had that big black out 1911 hit 100 in early July... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 91 was my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 High for the day yesterday was 96 here. Current temp 83/DP 75/RH 76% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Lightning pouring out of the cells encroaching from Pennsylvania, flashes every few seconds here in Piscataway. Heavy echoes on radar. Hunterdon County getting a crush job and I have to think I'm getting a late night taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Absolutely slammed here. Picked up about 2.30" in 45 mins, and 2.60" in an hour. Pretty intense winds (would estimate at least 40-50 mph gusts) that continued for a while. Max rain rate on my Davis of 14.05"/hour, which I think is by far the highest I've ever seen. Definitely an upper-echelon storm among those I've experienced in my 39 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Lots of lightning and very heavy rain here. Rain rate of 8 in/hr. Picked up 1.12 inches so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Yup , cloudburst in Borough Park, Brooklyn, around 1:25-1:35 picked up an inch in 15 minutes, highest rain rate 5in/hour. -See chart below 5 min intervals, First column rain rate , second total accumulation ⬇️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 SPC Day 3 ...Northeast... Organized convection will again be possible in association with the northeastward-moving cyclone on Sunday, as moderate low/mid-level flow and rich low-level moisture overspread portions of the Northeast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding how this scenario will evolve, but supercells and/or organized bowing segments will be possible, with an attendant risk of locally damaging wind. Some tornado potential will also be present in the vicinity of the retreating surface warm front as it moves northward through the day. Some portion of this region may require an upgrade once details come into better focus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 The last day of July is averaging just 77degs., assuming the sun does not appear early. Month to date is +3.6[80.2]. July should end at +3.4[80.0]. 72*(93%RH) here at 6am., gloomy with moderate rain. 75*(86%RH), just cloudy by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I got more last night than last time, .04"! Useless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 10 hours ago, Ace said: All eyes on Isaias, but Sunday could be a big time severe weather day. Probably more so for upstate NY/PA, but we'll see. Agreed100%. will update by 830A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 These may be the warmest SSTs on record south of Long Island for so early in the morning. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 0950 75 20/ 10/ 12 1009.0 3/ 6 20 S Fire Island 0950 81 50/ 16/ 19 1008.5 4/ 4 Great South Bay 0930 72 40/ 10/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 0950 72 78 360/ 17/ 21 1009.6 3/ 6 15 E Barnegat Li 0926 79 N/A 3/ 7 Hudson Canyon 0950 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Did anyone notice how HOT it may be/feel in NJ Monday if the slower EC is correct? Unsure of whether EC slowness on Isaias is correct? Posting more by 845A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport had a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 6th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this month. The previous record was 5 days, which was set in 2013. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport had a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 6th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this month. The previous record was 5 days, which was set in 2013. Farmingdale set a new record for 75° or warmer July minimums. They actually had 1 more day than LGA. The magnitude of the record over the previous year was much more impressive than the new LGA 80° minimum record. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2020 15 1 2 2013 7 0 - 2010 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2010 19 0 2 2016 17 0 - 2013 17 0 3 1999 16 0 4 2020 14 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 1.05" last night. Finally a decent soaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport had a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 6th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this month. The previous record was 5 days, which was set in 2013. including 3 straight days with 80+ minimums, and 4 of 5 days. That level of sustained heat with no relief is worse than just very hot days. It takes quite a toll on you. We're not in FL with widespread central AC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Farmingdale set a new record for 75° or warmer July minimums. They actually had 1 more day than LGA. The magnitude of the record over the previous year was much more impressive than the new LGA 80° minimum record. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2020 15 1 2 2013 7 0 - 2010 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2010 19 0 2 2016 17 0 - 2013 17 0 3 1999 16 0 4 2020 14 1 That is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 About 2/3 of an inch of rain last night but a heavy bout of rain this morning took me over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Farmingdale set a new record for 75° or warmer July minimums. They actually had 1 more day than LGA. The magnitude of the record over the previous year was much more impressive than the new LGA 80° minimum record. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2020 15 1 2 2013 7 0 - 2010 7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2010 19 0 2 2016 17 0 - 2013 17 0 3 1999 16 0 4 2020 14 1 I am about 6-7 miles west of Farmingdale airport. I only had 4 days with a minimum of 75 or above. Amazing the difference more grass compared to more concrete can do to the temperature. O course they may have had a lot of 75-76 degree lows where at my house it went to 72-73 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 72/70 with 1.12 in the bucket from overnight storms. Break in the heat today. Saturday pending on clearing could see some of the warmer spots touch 90 followed again Sunday and Monday as 850MB temps >18c arrive. All depends on storms and clouds with Isaias adding a bit more steam too. Whats left of Isaias looks to impact the region between Tue PM (8/3) and Wed AM (8/4)followed by a few days near normal Thu (8/5) and Fri (8/6) August 7th and beyond: Continued war and wet pattern with WAR retreating then expanding back later in the period Rockies ridge looks to move east into the plains the second week of August where more heat looks possible. Overall warm and wet and pending on storms and tropics could be very wet totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Did anyone notice how HOT it may be/feel in NJ Monday if the slower EC is correct? Unsure of whether EC slowness on Isaias is correct? Posting more by 845A Yes been tracking this as differing forecasts of the strength of the Western Atlantic ridge have 850MB temps between 16c and 20c Sun om and Mon evening. Clouds and storms only thing that looks to limit strong heat. But either way Dew point temps will make it real steamy ahead of Isaias. Mosquito season this August.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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