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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Just now, uofmiami said:

I don’t think I’m getting the seabreeze in N Nassau, appears to be S of me.

9DDA80B6-EFA2-4480-981D-7FE55FEC749C.thumb.png.7dc4cc477107cd61c9ba3d5577db5b81.png

The only benefit is the strip of clouds among the seabreeze front. Temp dropped 3 degrees but dew jumped by 6...

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

Current temp up to 94 here.

Almost completely clear. 850s near 16-17C now.  Add 3-5 more tomorrow 19-22C and we got a real shot at triple digits with W'rly flow and full sunshine (if it stays this clear).

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1 minute ago, tdp146 said:

Another day with buoys reading 80 or close to it. I don’t remember this happening with regularity years ago. 

This may be a first for an extended period  that I can remember also. The upwelling from Fay only lasted 3 days. 

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21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Another day where LaGuardia is one of the hottest places around. I'm sure Newark is not far behind.

LGA and EWR switched places following the super El Niño in 2016. EWR was the local hotspot from 2010 to 2015. But LGA took the lead in recent years. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 96 159
2019 99 0
2018 98 0
2017 99 0
2016 99 0
2015 98 0
2014 96 0
2013 101 0
2012 104 0
2011 108 0
2010 103 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 97 159
2019 100 0
2018 98 0
2017 101 0
2016 99 0
2015 95 0
2014 93 0
2013 100 0
2012 101 0
2011 104 0
2010 103 0

 

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12 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is about the best I can find for location of the weather station at LaGuardia, for anyone interested.

 

https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KLGA

LGA has been tracking pretty close to Astoria which is also in Northern Queens.

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=D3216&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Weather Conditions for D3216

DW3216 Astoria
Current Time: 07/26/2020 16:52 EDT
Most Recent Weather Conditions at: 07/26/2020 16:45 EDT 

Graphical Links 16:45 Max Since 0:00 (EDT) Min Since 0:00 (EDT) 24 Hour Maximum 24 Hour Minimum
Temperature 94.0° F 95.0 at 15:25 78.0 at 7:12 95.0 at 15:25 78.0 at 7:12
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14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was just checking buoy reports in our area. Sure enough, water temperatures in our area are close to 80, yet Atlantic City is 68.7 as of this afternoon. Ocean City Md. to Cape May N.J. appear to be about 75.

 

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt//cwtg/satl_tmap.html

Upwelling brings temps quickly back to upper 60s

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26 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was just checking buoy reports in our area. Sure enough, water temperatures in our area are close to 80, yet Atlantic City is 68.7 as of this afternoon. Ocean City Md. to Cape May N.J. appear to be about 75.

 

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt//cwtg/satl_tmap.html

It’s not 80 right on the beaches today. More like 70. Any westerly component in the wind will up well enough to drop temps at the beach

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48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s not 80 right on the beaches today. More like 70. Any westerly component in the wind will up well enough to drop temps at the beach

Went to Robert Moses today, and water was much cooler than last couple weeks. It was turquoise bath water not that long ago. Was back to chilly brown water today. May of got a little warmer as the day went on and lost some of that brown look too. I suppose as winds went more southerly. It was pretty gusty W to WSW wind to start. Water pretty rough too.

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Just now, dWave said:

Went to Robert Moses today, and water was much cooler than last couple weeks. It was turquoise bath water not that long ago. Was back to chilly brown water today. May of got a little warmer as the day went on and lost some of that brown look too. I suppose as winds went more southerly. It was pretty gusty W to WSW wind to start. Water pretty rough too.

Went to beach on the great South Bay yesterday. Water must have been low 80s

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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

You can talk about it here too

Just posted a note on the Tropic forum.  First I need a NAMED storm. Then since it's so far away, will post the daily 00z cycle 500MB EPS/GEFS winds and the associated EPS/GEFS tracks. Then we can watch it trend and or sway back and forth. Should be fun.  Thanks for the plug. Walt

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Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower 90s across much of the region. A few locations reached the middle 90s.

At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 80°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 78°, which was set in 1995.

Tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, temperatures could rise in the middle and upper 90s across the region. Some locations from Washington, DC to New York City's LaGuardia Airport could approach or reach 100°. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal.

Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.3°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.3°-82.7° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.766.

On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.963 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.852.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 56 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.995 million square kilometers yesterday. That is the earliest date on record on which Arctic sea ice extent was less than 6 million square kilometers. The previous record was set on July 30, 2019 when Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.998 million square kilometers.

 

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19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

"Stuck Pattern":

The MJO has now been bottled up in Phases 1 and 2 for 56 consecutive days. Here's the latest 40-day chart:

MJO40daysended07252020.jpg

Don't worry come December it will be in 4/5/6 for winter.

 

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