July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 55%

[Cfa]

90/74 here, I seriously wasn’t expecting the heat wave to start today, but here we are.

[Rtd208]

I am just going to throw out some high temp numbers once again for my back yard for the next few days and see where things land.

Sunday 7/26: 95

Monday 7/27: 97

Tuesday 7/28: 93

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Cfa said:

90/74 here, I seriously wasn’t expecting the heat wave to start today, but here we are.

Same, hit 90. 

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1950                   190/ 14/ 17 1017.4          2/ 5
20 S Fire Island 1940               80  200/ 10/ 12 1018.2
Great South Bay  1930            79     220/  8/ 14   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1940            76 76  240/ 10/ 12 1018.4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               81                N/A           2/15

 

Went to beach today at Hecksher park on great South Bay. Water had to be in the low 80s. Was like a bath tub

[lee59]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

New York Times is about half a century late on the “is now subtropical” part, but the environment is clearly responding to the increased warmth.

 

Lets not forget the heat island affect, especially when it comes to night time temperatures.  NYC has had a skyscraper boom in the past 10-15 years. That concrete simply does not allow the heat to escape at night.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lets not forget the heat island affect, especially when it comes to night time temperatures.  NYC has had a skyscraper boom in the past 10-15 years. That concrete simply does not allow the heat to escape at night.

Rural and suburban areas with no skyscrapers have also warmed the same if not more 

[lee59]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Rural and suburban areas with no skyscrapers have also warmed the same if not more 

NYC average annual  temperature in the past 120 years has gone up 3.6 degrees.

[lee59]

Yes all areas have risen but nighttime temperatures fall so much more in rural areas. I should add, especially on quiet nights with no wind.

[psv88]

Just now, lee59 said:

Yes all areas have risen but nighttime temperatures fall so much more in rural areas.

They are falling less...

[lee59]

The past 20 years in our area are milder, wetter, more snow and stormier. I actually like it better.

[Rtd208]

Temp is back up to 92 here.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1950                   190/ 14/ 17 1017.4          2/ 5
20 S Fire Island 1940               80  200/ 10/ 12 1018.2
Great South Bay  1930            79     220/  8/ 14   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1940            76 76  240/ 10/ 12 1018.4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               81                N/A           2/15

 

probably why places like ewr have been able to hit 90 behind the sea breeze. it's like being in north carolina 

[doncat]

After a one day interruption, back up to 91 today for high after am low of 70 degrees.

[uncle W]

89/70 max min here...87 now...

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1950                   190/ 14/ 17 1017.4          2/ 5
20 S Fire Island 1940               80  200/ 10/ 12 1018.2
Great South Bay  1930            79     220/  8/ 14   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1940            76 76  240/ 10/ 12 1018.4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               81                N/A           2/15

 

I was at Robert Moses today and there's no way the water was 80*. It was nice but it wasn't bathwater. FWIW they do a pretty good job of keeping people separated out there. We went to field 5, got there around 9:30 and it was filling up pretty quick. They have it like at Jones Beach where there are cones in every other spot, there were plenty of people moving cones and they all got tickets. I guess the lots did close for a while but when we left around 1 there were lots of empty spots so if you're into going in the afternoon you should be able to, if it was like that on a hot Saturday it should be good all the time. On the beach itself people were very good about staying apart unlike the hot mess that Misquamicut RI was last week. Heh, my wife and kids went for a walk and found the clothing optional end of the park, I don't think they enjoyed it.

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Yes all areas have risen but nighttime temperatures fall so much more in rural areas. I should add, especially on quiet nights with no wind.

All depends on how much pavement/concrete is around and closeness of houses to each other. I radiate well in N Syosset compared to when I lived in Great Neck.  My parent’s house in Muttontown radiates even better than my house in Syosset.  Flip side is unless it’s a hot day not a lock for 90 either. Both locations only hit 89 today for the high. 

[dmillz25]

91 here for the high

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

All depends on how much pavement/concrete is around and closeness of houses to each other. I radiate well in N Syosset compared to when I lived in Great Neck.  My parent’s house in Muttontown radiates even better than my house in Syosset.  Flip side is unless it’s a hot day not a lock for 90 either. Both locations only hit 89 today for the high. 

No doubt that if you looked at records going back 30 years, even the areas that still radiate well are warmer than they were. 

[dWave]

4 hours ago, Cfa said:

New York Times is about half a century late on the “is now subtropical” part, but the environment is clearly responding to the increased warmth.

 

Yeah NYC has been (barely) humid subtropical for a while now. NYT probably worded it like that because it makes for a more attention grabbing headline. The substance of article is legitimate, but the headline is a little marketing spin. But it worked, it featured on sites like Gothmaist now.

[lee59]

89 was my high today.

[Rjay]

89 today here as well

[binbisso]

Monthly departures

Cp +2.8

Ewr +2.6

Jfk +3

Lga +4.7

Is there any way we could remove LGA as a reporting station or can they move their sensor to a better spot to give a better representation of Queens it's pretty ridiculous that they're about two degrees above normal from any of the local reporting stations

[etudiant]

It would be useful to show a growth zone map from 1950 vs the same today. 

Certainly NYC has become Virginia climate wise, although I have no idea whether places further north such as Watertown or Syracuse have warmed comparably. Has Virginia become more like Florida during this same interval?

We commonly see birds in NYC today that would have been very unusual in 1950, obvious birds such as Cardinals. So nature is reacting to the changes, perhaps faster than the academicians. 

[SACRUS]

7/25

LGA: 92
TEB: 90
EWR: 90
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
BLM: 89
TTN: 88
NYC: 88
ISP: 86
ACY: 86
JFK: 85

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Monthly departures

Cp +2.8

Ewr +2.6

Jfk +3

Lga +4.7

Is there any way we could remove LGA as a reporting station or can they move their sensor to a better spot to give a better representation of Queens it's pretty ridiculous that they're about two degrees above normal from any of the local reporting stations

LGA represents the five boroughs outside of marine influences well

[donsutherland1]

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 80s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. New York City's LaGuardia Airport where the mercury reached 92° was a local hot spot.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 25):

Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 13 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 30 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 5 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 20 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 3 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 7 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 19 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 11 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 17 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 32 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 14 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 14 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Farther south, temperatures topped out in the lower 90s in Baltimore and Washington, DC. Tomorrow readings will rise into the lower and middle 90s throughout the region.

The potential exists for parts of the region to experience their warmest readings this summer when the upcoming heat wave crests on Monday and Tuesday. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal.

Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.1°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.2°-82.6° there. That would be that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, was LaGuardia's warmest month on record.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.461.

On July 24, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.859 (RMM). The July 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.914.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 55 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

 

[uofmiami]

Just now, doncat said:

Agree it's like that every month...i went back and checked a while ago and those departure anomalies started suddenly, i think maybe a year and a half ago or so...prior to that the departures were in line with other sites.

How long has construction of new terminals, etc been going on for at LGA?  Wonder if there is a correlation with that.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Monthly departures

Cp +2.8

Ewr +2.6

Jfk +3

Lga +4.7

Is there any way we could remove LGA as a reporting station or can they move their sensor to a better spot to give a better representation of Queens it's pretty ridiculous that they're about two degrees above normal from any of the local reporting stations

Adding a few

ISP: +3.2
TEB: +3.1
BLM: +3.7
TTN: +3.4
PHL: +3.3

[MJO812]

Time to track 92L