July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even if the flow was W to NW at JFK, the 850s aren’t forecast to be high enough to reach 100°. They look close to what we saw last week. The warm spots have been topping out near 97° with +20C 850s this July.

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
 

2020-07-02

95

2020-07-05	96
2020-07-06	96

2020-07-18	95
2020-07-19	97
2020-07-20	97
2020-07-21	95
2020-07-22	95

 

Yes that was when both LGA and JFK hit 97 while NYC only hit 93.

Out of curiosity how much hotter were the the 850s last July when we hit 99 on back to back days and saw the record heat indices?

 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm I missed the one in 1983, I was out of the country for summer vacation from school.  I do remember it was really hot when I got back in early September though.

That reminds me of something I wanted to ask you (and Chris).....normally, when we have big el nino winters, we have a really hot summer with 100 degree temps after that.....it happened in 1983 and it also happened in 2010....... why was it that it didn't happen in 2016?  2015-16 was a good match to 1982-83 especially because of the "one big snowstorm" nature of the winter (which tends to favor coastal areas), but the summer after 2015-16 wasn't at all like the summer after 1982-83.

 

100° temperatures are only one metric by which  to measure hot summers here.  2016 was a top 4 warmest July and August. We never went below 0 during the -10 February 2015. But it was much colder on average than February 2016 when NYC went below 0. Sometimes the monthly max or min isn’t aligned with the monthly average temperature departure.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and perhaps a 100 degree high, even for JFK and NYC!

 

Aside from a possible 100 degree reading at LGA, I don’t think either JFK or NYC will reach 100. Middle and upper 90s seems more likely there.

[bluewave]

The NEPAC warm blob is back again.

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

100° temperatures are only one metric by which  to measure hot summers here.  2016 was a top 4 warmest July and August. We never went below 0 during the -10 February 2015. But it was much colder on average than February 2016 when NYC went below 0. Sometimes the monthly max or min isn’t aligned with the monthly average temperature departure.

100 and 90 degree temps both seem to be less than what we had during the 90s, but that is to be expected, as the humidity levels rise, it's harder to reach extreme temps.  But when the humidity levels rise, it also makes the min temps higher, so it's a give/take scenario.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NEPAC warm blob is back again.

 

is this rare during a la nina?  I was wondering if the impending TC strike for Hawaii was a rare event for them during a la nina too.

 

[uncle W]

a heat wave should be measured by a mean temperature 80.0 degrees or higher...days with a max 87 and a min of 73 is just as bad or worse especially if its more humid than a day 90/70...

[donsutherland1]

Heat will begin to rebuild across the region starting tomorrow. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience their warmest readings this summer early next week.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 24):

Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 13 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 29 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 5 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 19 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 3 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 7 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 18 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 11 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 16 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 31 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 13 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 13 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was +20.74.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.237.

On July 23, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.913 (RMM). The July 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.820.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 54 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Monday looks like the flow will start out W but gradually shift SW at JFK. So probably no 100° at JFK this July. 

 

 

 

I'd rather take the 100 on west wind with less humidity than 94 on SW wind with hideousness. If anything it was worse in Long Beach this past Sunday because of the humidity despite it being a few degrees cooler than inland areas. Water is too warm now for the sea breeze to be much relief. 

[SACRUS]

7/24 - coolest since two weeks 7/10 Fay.

PHL: 86
ACY: 84
TEB: 81
BLM: 80
TTN: 80
EWR: 80
LGA: 80
NYC: 79
JFK: 79
New Brnswk: 78
ISP: 78

[Cfa]

80/70 split today. Temp hasn’t dipped below 70 in a week. Month averaging 87/70 so far.

0.81” fell today, monthly total now 4.55”, most of it from only 3 or 4 events, still pales in comparison to NYC and NJ.

[lee59]

My high temperature this month is 96 and the low 63. I have had 3.78 inches of rain. Central Park is about 3 degrees above normal so far this month.

[lee59]

Hanna is becoming more impressive looking while Gonzalo doesn't even look tropical.

[wdrag]

Hi!

Heat wave looks halfway decent, beginning today a few spots inland from NYC and culminating in potential near 97F Mon-Tue.  Does it break with weak cool frontal convection Tuesday, or continue beyond...albeit marginally?

Strong cool frontal sewd moving convection still looks good  to me (not overwhelmingly good)  for Tuesday (PWAT 2", KI upper 30s, cooler wedge at 500MB with marginally good enough 500-300mb winds) , but i see some modeling with a delay til possibly Wednesday, and even one model suggesting dying convection arrives Monday night (though I think capped by rather warm 500mb temps of -4C and so convection in se NYS/CT unlikely Monday night). My choice for now is Tuesday afternoon-evening. No topic yet till am more assured timing is going to focus maximum potential 2P-10P. Keeps all the discussion right here.  Have a good weekend. 613A/25

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of July are averaging 86.5degs., or 8.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[79.3].           July should end near  +4.3[80.9].

06Z GFS pops a hurricane out of nowhere for CH on 8/06.

74*(96%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.      77*(91%RH) by 9am.          80*(80%RH) by Noon.

[bluewave]

Newark moves into 2nd place for wettest July. Only the 2nd time with this much rain and an 80° average temperature. Julys this wet have been much cooler at Newark. This is also the warmest July to feature a tropical storm in our area. Summer months with tropical cyclones are usually not as warm as this July was. But when we had warmer months with tropical cyclones like August 1955, the heatwave arrived  before the tropical activity. This month, Fay came before the strongest heatwave of the season so far.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Avg Temp
1	1988	9.98	80.4
2	2020	9.93	80.1
3	1984	8.65	76.5
4	2004	8.39	75.0
5	1996	8.27	73.8
6	1975	8.02	76.9
7	1938	7.96	75.5
8	1961	7.95	77.3
9	1967	7.53	74.2
10	1969	7.11	74.2

[doncat]

^^^  6.81" rain here this month.

[doncat]

Euro shows dewpoints mixing down into the 50's for us during peak heat Sun and Mon.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.35" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 74/DP 72/RH 94%

[uofmiami]

23 minutes ago, doncat said:

Euro shows dewpoints mixing down into the 50's for us during peak heat Sun and Mon.

Looks like Tuesday would be a heat advisory day for NYC on Euro, as DPs stay higher with wind going SW.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, doncat said:

Euro shows dewpoints mixing down into the 50's for us during peak heat Sun and Mon.

Looks like the same pattern with the highest dew points remaining over Long Island. 

 

 

[wdrag]

If dews drop down into the 50s at 20-21z Tuesday, I'll be a  bit surprised and for sure would have to write off Tuesday afternoon convection (delaying til night or not at all). NAM 12K for 18z has what appears to me, a solid chance of dews at least 65 at KEWR at 20z (extrapolating FWN 18z Sussex dew to EWR at 20z.) My guess if dews are down into the 50s during mid Tuesday afternoon, the front would have accelerated quite a bit. Maybe a safe 20z temp forecast for 20z/Tuesday is 95/65, but with uncertainty regarding cloud debris?? just my 2c.  This will be  an interesting forecast contest between 00z/25 EC HI res, vs EC/GFS/NAM consensus  10F warmer TD.   {misunderstood on Euro posts above... they look reasonable.  Thought these were referencing Tue 50s TD. My bad---just was too hasty on my part. Walt Sunday 7/26 958A}

[SACRUS]

80/72 S/SW wind.  Low clouds burning off and today starts the next surge of heat which briefly ended Friday.  Onshore component to winds may keep coastal areas from 90 today.  Sun - Wed widespread strong heat peaking Mon -PM  Tue with 850MB temps pegged at 22C which with enough sun should translate  to the upper 90s with EWR/LGA a shot at 100.  850s actually look highest on Tue but storms timing could limit max heating and Mon is the better bet for the hotter day right now.  Recent deluge may prohibit 100 but dont think we are done with strong heat so perhaps not the last chance or hottest air of the season yet.  By Tue and Wed heights are dropping ahead of a front so numerous storms are likely later Tue and perhaps Wed morning which would make Wednesday (7/29) the tossup day for 90s.  

Beyond there drier cooler near normal  Thu (7/30) and Fri (7/31).    August looking to begin warm / humid and likely wetter than normal.  US ridge shifts west to the Rockies to open the month with W. Atl Ridge shifting south with some weaknesses  into the Mid West.  W.AR does looks to migrate west with the Rockies ridge pushing into the plains again by the second week of August.  Overall warm with no prolonged / strong heat the first week, which should feature chances of 90s.  Hotter, stronger more sustained period looks possible by Aug 6th.  TIme will tell as tropics ramp up and WAR steering storms towards the US..

[uncle W]

lowest minimum in NYC this month is 67...if that holds up it will be a new record for July...

[SnoSki14]

The early next week heat will probably be the strongest heat of the season.

I don't see it getting hotter than that in August. August could be more warm/humid than near record hot. Lots of tropical activity lurking too.

[dWave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

100 and 90 degree temps both seem to be less than what we had during the 90s, but that is to be expected, as the humidity levels rise, it's harder to reach extreme temps.  But when the humidity levels rise, it also makes the min temps higher, so it's a give/take scenario.

 

Seeing more subtropical characterstics here. 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, uncle W said:

lowest minimum in NYC this month is 67...if that holds up it will be a new record for July...

Yeah, warmest July monthly  minimums across the region for numerous  rural, suburban, and urban stations.  This has been a theme in recent years.
 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	58	7
2	2019	54	0
3	2013	53	0
-	2012	53	0

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	7
2	2019	61	0
-	2012	61	0
4	2013	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	7
2	2019	60	0
-	1931	60	0
-	1897	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	68	7
-	2008	68	0
3	2019	67	0
-	1994	67	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	7
2	2019	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0
5	2011	65	0

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	64	7
-	2019	64	0
-	1994	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	7
2	2019	64	0
3	2015	63	0

 

[wdrag]

Northern NJ and se NYS: Dont be surprised at seeing/hearing thunder and or experiencing a brief downpour this afternoon. Already a tiny shower in ne PA at 1025A.  I know a few of us up here in Sussex and Orange counties might benefit from a shower, having missed out on the swaths of big time rains this past week. We'll see how it goes. CU bubbling and some decent buildups to the se-s of Wantage NJ. 

[dWave]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, warmest July monthly  minimums across the region for numerous  rural, suburban, and urban stations.  This has been a theme in recent years.
 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	58	7
2	2019	54	0
3	2013	53	0
-	2012	53	0

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	7
2	2019	61	0
-	2012	61	0
4	2013	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	7
2	2019	60	0
-	1931	60	0
-	1897	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	68	7
-	2008	68	0
3	2019	67	0
-	1994	67	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	7
2	2019	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0
5	2011	65	0

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	64	7
-	2019	64	0
-	1994	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	7
2	2019	64	0
3	2015	63	0

 

Ha breaking the record mostly set last year.

[SACRUS]

45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The early next week heat will probably be the strongest heat of the season.

I don't see it getting hotter than that in August. August could be more warm/humid than near record hot. Lots of tropical activity lurking too.

This coming week's heat likely the hottest along with this past week but I've learned never to say it cant happen.  In these warm / hot years all it takes sometimes is a ridge in the right spot.

Agree August theme looks warm and wet (humid) and may see Tropical tracking most of the month.  That ridge building back from the Atlantic and the Rockies ridge returning eat towards the Midwest and Ohio valley seems to be the tendency so id watch August 6 - 14 more the next sustained heat spike.