July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[SACRUS]

We'll see if its possible to eeak out some 90s tomorrow.  Think it'll be tougher with clouds again / showers and 850 temps closer to 16C rather 18c like today.  Saturday  think is onshoreish for a period before the flow whips around.  Sun - Tue very hot Wed toss up before front/storms. 

[SACRUS]

Tropics ramping up.  WAR looks to pulse / retrograde west at times with Rockies/Plains ridge occasionally pushing east.  August looks wet and warm and maybe Tropics EC and GOM.

 

[Rtd208]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Tropics ramping up.  WAR looks to pulse / retrograde west at times with Rockies/Plains ridge occasionally pushing east.  August looks wet and warm and maybe Tropics EC and GOM.

 

 

[tdp146]

That cell around Bridgeport putting on a great light show even from down here on the south shore. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.17" of rain for the day.

High for the day was 91 here.

Current temp 77/DP 73/RH 88%

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.65" of rain so far today.

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of July are averaging 86.5degs., or 8.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.0[79.4].         July should end near +4.5[81.2].

The last 8 days need only average 81.5 to have July end at 80.0.     So the nutty GFS could be off by +5.0, and we still would end at 80.0.

75*(88%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast, drizzle.        Heavy rain/TS from 11:00am to 12:30pm.          Just 77*(88%RH) by 3pm.      Managed 80* for a while near 5pm.

[wdrag]

Today: sent an update to the two day SVR/FF topic. Big rains likely today for parts of NJ/LI (maybe even NYC) in leftover PWAT/subtle convergence on the trough. Suspect will require 1 or 2 FFW's.  best bet I think is between I78-I195

Tomorrow: still could see a shower or thunderstorm in NJ/NYC, but lower pwat. Leftover CAPE part of the problem.

Heat wave probable Sun-Tue and may begin Saturday and continue into Wednesday. 97 the worst on Monday-Tuesday and probably closer to 95F. (all non-marine influenced coastal plain, especially Hud Valley/I95 corridor).  HI max probably to 100-103, either or both Mon-Tue and inclusive of eastern LI.

Next topic: not started for several days until more certainty.  Tuesday convection.  Ingredients seem in place. Approaching southeastward moving cold front, just enough wind aloft, CAPE/KI.  Timing uncertain which may rob the potency (predawn?), even possible that dying strong thunderstorms arrive early Monday night. Fwiw... Hanna may contribute a small amount to the 2" PWAT Tuesday. (the nw flow event thought to occur Sunday ish in our area a few days ago, seems destined for Maine Sunday with only CAPE missing there...still something substantive should be traversing far Northern New England Sunday or Sunday night). 657A/24

 

[bluewave]

Only the 2nd time that Newark had an 80° July that was so wet. Most top 10 wettest Julys are much cooler at Newark. So it’s no surprise that the average dew point for July is the 3rd highest.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Avg Temp
1	1988	9.98	80.4
2	1984	8.65	76.5
3	2004	8.39	75.0
4	1996	8.27	73.8
5	1975	8.02	76.9
6	1938	7.96	75.5
7	1961	7.95	77.3
8	2020	7.79	80.3
9	1967	7.53	74.2
10	1969	7.11	74.2

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[BxEngine]

Lol

[SACRUS]

77/76.  Nearly 2 1/2 inches of rain overnight with persistent and prolonged thunderstorms.  Like yesterday clouds should dissipate in the afternoon but unlike yesterday temps should stay below 90 with additional showers and storms through the PM. Sat we dry things out and warm it back up.  Inland areas not impacted by coastal seabreeze will close in and resume the next stretch of 90s.  Sun - Tue strong heat peaking MOn and Tue with 850MB temps near 22C which should translate to upper 90s and some stray triple digits.  Have to watch storms Tue and stronger storms on Wed as front moves through and should bring temps back towards normal to close out July Thu (7/30) - Fri (7/31)

Warm and wet opening to August.  Western Atl Ridge nearby and retrogrades west into the Southeast at times and Rockies/Plains ridge ejecting heat at times that migrate east into the MW/GL and east.  Humid, warm and at times hot with plenty of storms chances.  Likely see 1 to 2 day surges of heat with plenty of storms and need to watch tropical activity as well.  Can see a similar pattern evolve  to what we have seen the last 10 days towards the second week of August with more ridging into the MW/OV and WAR nearby potentially hooking really raising heights.

[lee59]

Only received a tenth of an inch of rain between yesterday and last night. In the past hour I have gotten a 1/2 inch.

[gravitylover]

I got a huge .01 over the last 30 or so hours. 

Looks like LI is getting soaked pretty good this morning.

[Cfa]

0.81” here, very much needed.

[SACRUS]

Clouds thinning into EPA and looks like we may get some sun this afternoon.  

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

77/76.  Nearly 2 1/2 inches of rain overnight with persistent and prolonged thunderstorms.  Like yesterday clouds should dissipate in the afternoon but unlike yesterday temps should stay below 90 with additional showers and storms through the PM. Sat we dry things out and warm it back up.  Inland areas not impacted by coastal seabreeze will close in and resume the next stretch of 90s.  Sun - Tue strong heat peaking MOn and Tue with 850MB temps near 22C which should translate to upper 90s and some stray triple digits.  Have to watch storms Tue and stronger storms on Wed as front moves through and should bring temps back towards normal to close out July Thu (7/30) - Fri (7/31)

Warm and wet opening to August.  Western Atl Ridge nearby and retrogrades west into the Southeast at times and Rockies/Plains ridge ejecting heat at times that migrate east into the MW/GL and east.  Humid, warm and at times hot with plenty of storms chances.  Likely see 1 to 2 day surges of heat with plenty of storms and need to watch tropical activity as well.  Can see a similar pattern evolve  to what we have seen the last 10 days towards the second week of August with more ridging into the MW/OV and WAR nearby potentially hooking really raising heights.

You keep saying storms with the front wednesday, but right now the models are indicating the front will come through late tuesday. So storms on tuesday but it would be nice with lower humidity wednesday. Unless the timing of the front slows down.

[bluewave]

LGA has a chance to tie the all-time record of 11 days reaching 95° during July. Looks like the warm spots can add another 3 Sun-Tue.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1999	11	0
2	2020	8	8
3	2012	7	0
-	1955	7	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Showers moved through the Bronx this morning. They blew up into strong thunderstorms as they pressed southward.

The afternoon was mainly cloudy with temperatures in the 70s. The New York Botanical Garden reopened on July 21. The Conservatory is closed. Dining is limited to outdoor dining. Paths are marked with arrows to promote social distancing. Nevertheless, a number of people took off their masks to sniff the sunflowers.

Below are some of the flowers at the Garden:

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.35" of rain so far today from storms overnight and earlier this morning.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/21/2020 at 8:34 PM, SACRUS said:

Fri looks 'cooler' than current period with Sat having a bit of an onshore component with offshore low.  Sun (7/26)now looks to go NW flow and start the heat with Monday (7/27)  and Tue (7/28) seeing very strong heat spike as currently modeled.  Wed (7/29) strong cold front perhaps a widespread stormy - severe chasing day.

I'm hearing that this is going to be the end of the big heat for awhile, so if we're going to hit 100 this summer it'll probably be on Monday.  After the middle of next week, looks like we're going to go back down to normal temps for awhile.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

LGA has a chance to tie the all-time record of 11 days reaching 95° during July. Looks like the warm spots can add another 3 Sun-Tue.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1999	11	0
2	2020	8	8
3	2012	7	0
-	1955	7	0

 

and no sea breeze on Monday, so maybe JFK can hit 100?

I've heard it's going to cool down after the middle of next week, so if it's going to happen at all this summer it'll have to be next week.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight, parts of the region will see some showers and thundershowers. Tomorrow will be similar to today with clouds, some sunshine, and additional showers and thundershowers.

This weekend, heat will rebuild across the area. The potential exists for early next week to see the warmest readings this summer in parts of the region.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was +16.00.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.829.

On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.820 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.608.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 53 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

 

I hope today didnt ruin the chances for an 80 avg.....the forecast for today was really blown by the local mets, no one expected a washout

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope today didnt ruin the chances for an 80 avg.....the forecast for today was really blown by the local mets, no one expected a washout

 

LGA will likely have an 80 degree average. Central Park has been at a near 50% probability. A lot will depend on the intensity of the coming heat for the Sunday-Tuesday period. I suspect that there will be an 80 degree minimum temperature during that period, possibly Monday. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

LGA will likely have an 80 degree average. Central Park has been at a near 50% probability. A lot will depend on the intensity of the coming heat for the Sunday-Tuesday period. I suspect that there will be an 80 degree minimum temperature during that period, possibly Monday. 

and perhaps a 100 degree high, even for JFK and NYC!

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and no sea breeze on Monday, so maybe JFK can hit 100?

I've heard it's going to cool down after the middle of next week, so if it's going to happen at all this summer it'll have to be next week.

 

Monday looks like the flow will start out W but gradually shift SW at JFK. So probably no 100° at JFK this July. 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Monday looks like the flow will start out W but gradually shift SW at JFK. So probably no 100° at JFK this July. 

 

 

 

wow that's been happening a lot this year, even when we have a strong westerly or northwesterly breeze to start the day.  Sometimes we hit 100 before the shift happens..... if the shift occurs after 1 PM......do you think it could be delayed until after that?

I dont think JFK has hit 100 in August in my lifetime, it's usually July or not that summer.

 

[doncat]

Looks like a midnight high temp here today of 76°...1.97" rain.

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that's been happening a lot this year, even when we have a strong westerly or northwesterly breeze to start the day.  Sometimes we hit 100 before the shift happens..... if the shift occurs after 1 PM......do you think it could be delayed until after that?

I dont think JFK has hit 100 in August in my lifetime, it's usually July or not that summer.

 

8/20	100 in 1983	92 in 2010	91 in 2006+
8/21	91 in 2005	91 in 1968	90 in 1995+
8/22	93 in 1976	91 in 2003	90 in 1971+
8/23	91 in 1978	90 in 1989	90 in 1976
8/24	94 in 1995	93 in 1969	92 in 1978
8/25	97 in 1969	94 in 1968	94 in 1948
8/26	100 in 1948	92 in 2016	90 in 1993+
8/27	101 in 1948	92 in 1980	91 in 1970

 

I dont think it includes the year 1953...

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that's been happening a lot this year, even when we have a strong westerly or northwesterly breeze to start the day.  Sometimes we hit 100 before the shift happens..... if the shift occurs after 1 PM......do you think it could be delayed until after that?

I dont think JFK has hit 100 in August in my lifetime, it's usually July or not that summer.

 

Even if the flow was W to NW at JFK, the 850s aren’t forecast to be high enough to reach 100°. They look close to what we saw last week. The warm spots have been topping out near 97° with +20C 850s this July.

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
 

2020-07-02

95

2020-07-05	96
2020-07-06	96

2020-07-18	95
2020-07-19	97
2020-07-20	97
2020-07-21	95
2020-07-22	95

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, uncle W said:

8/20	100 in 1983	92 in 2010	91 in 2006+
8/21	91 in 2005	91 in 1968	90 in 1995+
8/22	93 in 1976	91 in 2003	90 in 1971+
8/23	91 in 1978	90 in 1989	90 in 1976
8/24	94 in 1995	93 in 1969	92 in 1978
8/25	97 in 1969	94 in 1968	94 in 1948
8/26	100 in 1948	92 in 2016	90 in 1993+
8/27	101 in 1948	92 in 1980	91 in 1970

 

I dont think it includes the year 1953...

hmmm I missed the one in 1983, I was out of the country for summer vacation from school.  I do remember it was really hot when I got back in early September though.

That reminds me of something I wanted to ask you (and Chris).....normally, when we have big el nino winters, we have a really hot summer with 100 degree temps after that.....it happened in 1983 and it also happened in 2010....... why was it that it didn't happen in 2016?  2015-16 was a good match to 1982-83 especially because of the "one big snowstorm" nature of the winter (which tends to favor coastal areas), but the summer after 2015-16 wasn't at all like the summer after 1982-83.