LibertyBell Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sea level rise or sunny day flooding is increasing fastest over the Southeast. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-high-tide-flooding-continues-to-increase The report, 2019 State of High-Tide Flooding and 2020 Outlook, documents changes in high-tide flooding patterns from May 2019 to April 2020 at 98 NOAA tidal gauges along the U.S. coast, and provides a flooding outlook for these locations for the coming meteorological year, May 2020 to April 2021, and projections for the next several decades High-tide flooding, often referred to as "nuisance" or “sunny day” flooding, is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It occurs when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or bubbling up from storm drains. As sea level rise continues, damaging floods that decades ago happened only during a storm now happen more regularly, such as during a full-moon tide or with a change in prevailing winds or currents. In 2019, the Southeast saw a 3-fold increase in flooding days compared to the year 2000. For example, Charleston, S.C., had 13 days where flooding reached damaging levels, compared to only two days typical in 2000. Along the Western Gulf, percentage increases were the highest, greater than 5-fold. In Texas, Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi had 21 and 18 flooding days in 2019, and in 2000 those locations would typically only experience about one and three days, respectively. "As a Chesapeake Bay resident, I see the flooding first hand and it is getting worse. Records seem to be set every year," said William Sweet, Ph.D., an oceanographer for NOAA’s National Ocean Service and lead author of the report. "Communities are straddled with this growing problem. Fortunately, NOAA’s tide gauge network is keeping a close watch and helping us provide guidance about the disruptive flooding it's being reported near Babylon (south of Montauk Hwy) too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Wait, that was a year before Hale-Bopp? I wonder why I dont remember it in NY, maybe it couldn't be seen from here? I guess so. I have no idea about here I was there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 7/22 LGA: 95 PHL: 95 New Brnswk: 94 TTN: 94 TEB: 93 ACY: 92 NYC: 91 EWR: 91 JFK: 90 ISP: 90 BLM: 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Today was another very warm day with highs again reaching the 90s in many parts of the region. However, readings in the northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England area were somewhat cooler than those of yesterday. Tomorrow will likely be a similar day. Some locations could pick up a shower or even thundershower. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +14.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.370. On July 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.469 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.327. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 51 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to near 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, I thought we were supposed to cool down over the weekend and the heat was going to return next week? Fri looks 'cooler' than current period with Sat having a bit of an onshore component with offshore low. Sun (7/26)now looks to go NW flow and start the heat with Monday (7/27) and Tue (7/28) seeing very strong heat spike as currently modeled. Wed (7/29) strong cold front perhaps a widespread stormy - severe chasing day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Pending on clouds and storms or any leftover clouds from Wed PM and evening storms, THE ECM and GFS have Thurs with 850 temps spiking to near 18C-20C again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Correction...92° high here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, doncat said: Correction...92° high here today same here 92max...75 min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 43 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 7/22 LGA: 95 PHL: 95 New Brnswk: 94 TTN: 94 TEB: 93 ACY: 92 NYC: 91 EWR: 91 JFK: 90 ISP: 90 BLM: 9 Chilly day in Belmar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 warmest 30 days in NYC since 1930...1876 had a 81.5 average from 6/24-7/23...could be a few others before 1930...2020 has a great chance to make the list... 1980...82.5 1999...81.9 2010...81.8 2005...81.8 2013...81.7 1955...81.6 1993...81.2 1988...81.1 1995...81.1 1966...81.0 2011...81.0 1983...80.9 1952...80.7 1944...80.3 2002...80.3 2016...80.3 1977...80.2 2006...80.1 2015...80.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Interesting stat by upton this evening. Every two years we get a 4 days heatwave and a 6 day heatwave hasn’t happen since 1952. This climate is changing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 longest heat waves in Newark NJ...90+ 20 in 1988 14 in 2010 12 in 1972 12 in 1995 11 in 1953 11 in 1973 11 in 2012 10 in 1993 10 in 2002 10 in 2006 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 The downpours moving East from the Lehigh Valley into western NJ mean business. We just picked up a quick 0.52”. Hopefully these can hold together as they work further to the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 High for the day was 93 here. Current temp 80/DP 72/RH 77% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 86degs., or 8degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[79.3]. Should be about +4.3[81.1] by the 30th. 79*(80%RH) here at 6am. 82*(82%RH) by 9am. 84*(83%RH) by Noon. 87*(78%RH) by 4pm. t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Numerous stations that are rural and urban have their warmest July monthly minimum temperature on record so far. Several of the stations recently set or tied their record in July 2019. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 57 10 2 2019 54 1 - 2013 54 0 - 2012 54 9 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2008 66 0 3 2019 65 0 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 10 - 2008 68 0 3 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 10 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2012 56 0 3 2019 55 0 - 2013 55 0 Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2019 57 0 3 2008 56 0 - 2004 56 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 10 2 2019 54 0 3 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Onward: Friday: may still have some showers and isolated storms near I80 in NJ through LI and southward. Saturday: May be dry, but modeling still showing small chance isolated shower. Sunday-Monday: Potential nw flow severe event? Still cant get rid of this yet. Modeling has this I90 northward. IF it doesn't occur, then likely renewed heat wave where it doesn't end this week per other posts here...Sunday-Tuesday or Wednesday. Might get to near 97 again in the city- but for now I'm just thinking the rest of this week and allow the models to develop better consensus on short waves-heat and convective thrusts from Sunday the 26th-Wednesday the 29th. 729A/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 The slightly drier air from yesterday is gone with temps and dews in the 70's this am...some spots had a shower overnight ...0.01" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 yup..Sticky weather is back. 80/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Quick question: Am a little frustrated with MDL not posting MOS since 7/6 and I know NWS wants buy in on the NBM and is ready to discontinue, but myself, I like MOS as an idea of concerns. Is anyone able to acquire the GFS extended statistical guidance for locations in NJ and NYC... (not ALB). Just point me in the right direction. Thanks much, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, wdrag said: Quick question: Am a little frustrated with MDL not posting MOS since 7/6 and I know NWS wants buy in on the NBM and is ready to discontinue, but myself, I like MOS as an idea of concerns. Is anyone able to acquire the GFS extended statistical guidance for locations in NJ and NYC... (not ALB). Just point me in the right direction. Thanks much, Walt Walt, try this link as MOS moved: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Looks like the move was part of the transition away from MOS development to the NBM. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn20-47transition_mos_data.pdf Service Change Notification 20-47 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 135 OM EDT Mon April 27th, 2020 We are also alerting MOS users that MDL has discontinued active development of MOS-based guidance products, with all efforts being directed toward the National Blend of Models (NBM). NBM graphical and text products can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 86/73 quite a bit more humid again. bout 3 -4 hours of sun before clouds and potential storms arrive / cloud deck pushing into C-PA we'll see how much burns off before tracking here by 1/2 PM. More 90s today with a much higher heat index.. More of the same tomorrow with storms and clouds probably keeping maxes closer to 90 but sunny spots should rack up some mid 90s. Friday toss up day looking to break the 90s streak for most sites but warmer less wet sites can continue the streak to day 6. Saturday looks less onshore flow and warmer air should push temps into the upper 80s/ low 90s before stronger heat arrives Sun (7/26) - Tue (7/28). 850s near 20c we'll see if the strongest heat remains in the Balt/DC/DE area again but look for 95(+) and some upper 90s LGA/JFK/EWR perhaps NYC. Outside chance of 100s still in the hot spots. Strong cold front by Wed 7/29 with the ridge migrating west to end July and trough and storminess pushing east over the area. Long range beyond there trough is pushing into the PAC NW by ealry August and strong heat building into the Rockies and Plains should eject east again and reach the area by Aug 4. Before that a 'cooler period' 7/30 - Aug 3 maybe at or just below avg, and potentially wetter than normal. We'll see how things progress and any shifting of the ridge more towards the plains than the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 LGA moves into 2nd place for the most 95° days in July. Very unusual not to have any 100° days with 7 days reaching 95° or warmer. Almost like a summer version of February 2015 when several stations couldn’t drop to 0 with it being so cold. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 7 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Quick question: Am a little frustrated with MDL not posting MOS since 7/6 and I know NWS wants buy in on the NBM and is ready to discontinue, but myself, I like MOS as an idea of concerns. Is anyone able to acquire the GFS extended statistical guidance for locations in NJ and NYC... (not ALB). Just point me in the right direction. Thanks much, Walt Thanks UOFMIAMI and BLUEWAVE for your replies. Couldn't get the MOS to work earlier, but now good with your link and also hadn't seen the transition announcement. Thanks to you both. I'll be checking the NBM against GFS MEX MOS in some critical situations. offline til about 1230P. Walt 1029A/22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 looks like another 90 for ewr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Thanks UOFMIAMI and BLUEWAVE for your replies. Couldn't get the MOS to work earlier, but now good with your link and also hadn't seen the transition announcement. Thanks to you both. I'll be checking the NBM against GFS MEX MOS in some critical situations. offline til about 1230P. Walt 1029A/22 For about a week, that site also had not updated. So far, at least as far as NYC is concerned, the NBE has been running about 3 degrees warmer than the MEX for high temperatures and about a degree warmer than the MEX for low temperatures. For today, the MEX showed a maximum temperature of 88 at NYC while the NBE had 91. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For about a week, that site also had not updated. So far, at least as far as NYC is concerned, the NBE has been running about 3 degrees warmer than the MEX for high temperatures and about a degree warmer than the MEX for low temperatures. For today, the MEX showed a maximum temperature of 88 at NYC while the NBE had 91. It would be nice if we could get access to this... https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper261494.html Monday, 5 January 2015: 1:30 PM 225AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings) Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB) The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently developed an experimental suite of station-based, Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. To date, guidance for temperature, dewpoint, wind speed and direction, sky cover, probability of precipitation, and precipitation type has been developed. One element that is important to aviation interests and public safety is thunderstorms. This paper describes the development of a MOS thunderstorm system for the ECMWF model and its performance when compared to climatology and corresponding MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models. Equations for the probability of a thunderstorm and the conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm for 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods were developed over the CONUS from six years of ECWMF model output. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and severe weather reports collected by the Office of Climate Water and Weather Services (OCWWS) were used to define the predictand. Results from a k-fold cross-validation test indicate the new ECMWF thunderstorm guidance is superior to corresponding GFS MOS and NAM MOS forecasts, and in some cases, forecast skill and good reliability are achieved out as far as 240 hours in advance. This guidance will be incorporated into the experimental short-range and extended-range ECMWF MOS text bulletins which are restricted to NOAA/NWS use only, and will also be available to NWS forecasters in gridded format as part of an experimental ECMWF gridded MOS suite. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 89/73 here partly sunny and very steamy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 clouds in PA to about Harrisburg, some burn off too. Think we are partly sunny through 1:30 for most. Should get most places to another 90. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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