wdrag Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 The future from my perspective: will begin a new two day topic for Wednesday-Thursday and add a couple of graphics by 740A. Next heat-convective event sometime between Sunday afternoon and the middle of next week, but modeling is variable as to which day? and modeling is also variable if indeed another heat wave occurs for NYC between the 26th-29th. I do note the GFS operational has reverted to a potential nw flow event here Sunday (00z/06z 21 cycles), but other global models differ (early or middle of next week). No matter, opportunity for action continues in the overall pattern sometime between Sunday the 26th and Wednesday the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 80° Julys have become more common since 2010 at LGA and EWR. These July average temperatures are considered normal for areas around DC. DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY FOR WASHINGTON DC NORMALS BASED ON PERIOD 1981-2010 MONTHLY NORMALS: MAX 88.4 MIN 71.1 AVG 79.8 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2020 81.8 11 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 11 2020 79.9 11 - 2016 79.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 9 hours ago, dWave said: After the 4pm climate summary This is hilarious. Now the final daily climo says it happened at 3:11pm lol Yet using 5 min obs it happened at 2 & 2:20 pm https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KJFK&table=1&num=168&banner=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Newark NJ 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....13.........3......96...as of 7/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, uncle W said: Newark NJ 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....13.........3......96...as of 7/20 very interesting yet scary statistics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Looking back the past two days... looks like 97 was the good non-marine influenced max T for the 19th-20th. Even though the HI made it up to near 103-104 in Toms River and possibly parts of LI, overall, I think the max HI was closer to ~100 .. and so from my perspective yesterday-Monday the 20th, did not quite live up to the intense heat that was suggested in some of the modeling (trough too close and so some afternoon lowering of the TD near the city on a westerly surface wind). Yesterday was a high end event on Long Island. Every ASOS out to Montauk hit 90 and had HI close to 100. That’s rare. FRG ASOS reported heat index of 104, probably higher between hours. That’s representative of a large chunk of Long Island. The ISP readings have been out to lunch for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Warm start already. 85 pretty much across the board before 9 am. 86 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 86/66 off a low of 70. Good Vibrations - great beach day this Tuesday Jul 21st. Less clouds more of a NW flow today perhaps can lead to opposite of yesterday and over perform today. Either way more low - mid 90s less humid initially but dewpoints will come up later as winds go more SW/SSW by evening and overnight. Tomorrow warm front pushing north with higher dewpints temps and surging 850 temps. Clouds and storms should be more numerous and we will need to watch if the 90s continue. Dry things out Thu and Fri but more 90 / low 90s before winds go around onshore this weekend. Pending on when winds shift which looks to be Sun PM could determine when the next heatwave starts. As it looks right now break Sat and late maxes Sunday starts the next round of heat especially away from the coast. Mon - Wed strong heat with 850 temps forecasted a >18c and peaking Tue at 21C - offering the next shot at triple digits. A strong cold front looks to come in Wed (7/29) at some point and bring in some cooler air to close the month. Ridge is in the Plains by Aug 1st and again looking to eject more heat towards the east in early August with WAR near by. August looks to start quite humid as well and that should mean warm and wetter. Lets see how it evolves. Looking like Aug 4th for next heat surge at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 87/70....slightly cooler and much less humid than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days... min/max...date... 80/97.....7/17/1968 80/90.....7/24/1972 80/97.....8/03/1975 80/98.....7/23/1978 81/101...7/21/1980 80/98.....7/09/1981 80/94.....7/10/1981 80/100...7/18/1982 80/98.....7/19/1982 80/98.....7/16/1983 80/97.....8/15/1985 80/95.....8/12/1988 80/98.....8/14/1988 81/99.....8/15/1988 82/105...7/08/1993 83/104...7/09/1993 84/105...7/10/1993 80/99.....7/11/1993 80/97.....7/12/1993 82/104...7/15/1995 81/103...7/05/1999 82/102...7/06/1999 80/99.....8/01/1999 82/101...8/08/2001 82/98.....7/03/2002 81/100...7/04/2002 81/96.....7/30/2002 80/102...8/13/2005 81/100...8/02/2006 80/101...8/03/2006 80/98.....6/28/2010 81/103...7/06/2010 82/99.....7/24/2010 86/108...7/22/2011 86/102...7/23/2011 82/100...7/19/2013 80/97.....7/20/2015 80/98.....7/23/2016 80/97.....8/14/2016 80/98.....7/20/2019 80/99.....7/21/2019 80/96.....7/20/2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: 87/70....slightly cooler and much less humid than yesterday. 87/69/92 here. It’s still hot out there today...more tolerable than yesterday but still pretty oppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 NWS..Lets keep the heat wave going ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Having so many 95° or warmer days this July, it would be a oddity for LGA not to reach 100°. With the heat in the forecast, LGA could finish in 2nd place for the most 95° or warmer days in July. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100 3 2020 6 97 - 2013 6 100 - 2010 6 103 - 2002 6 98 - 1991 6 101 - 1966 6 107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 81/70/84 in Syosset & 83/69/87 in Muttontown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 10AM ROundup PHL: 88 ACY: 87 JFK: 86 New Brnswk: 86 BLM: 86 LGA: 86 EWR: 86 TEB: 85 ISP: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 87/69 HI 91 at my station as of 10:27am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 81/70/84 in Syosset & 83/69/87 in Muttontown 88/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: 88/65 I’m 85 now at both weather stations. DP is 63 in Muttontown and 70 in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I’m 85 now at both weather stations. DP is 63 in Muttontown and 70 in Syosset. 90/63. FRG is 90/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 11AM Roundup PHL: 90 EWR: 88 ACY: 88 NEw Brnswk: 88 TEB: 87 LGA: 87 NYC: 86 ISP: 86 TTN: 86 JFK: 86 BLM: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 92/69 here. It’s an oven out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 12 noon roundup PHL: 91 TEB: 90 LGA: 90 ACY: 89 New Brnswck: 89 NYC: 88 TTN: 88 ISP: 88 EWR: 88 JFK: 87 BLM: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 87/69 It's uncomfortable but not unbearable. Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 EWR had some southerly affect from the Bay holding at 88. winds now more SW, see if they spike. Or perhaps there was some calibration done there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Ocean temperatures running near 80° STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1540 79 160/ 4/ 6 1016.5 20 S Fire Island 1540 100/ 4/ 4 1016.7 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1550 78 75 CALM / 2 1016.9 3/ 7 15 E Barnegat Li 1526 79 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1550 77 1017.7 2/ 6 Kings Point 1524 82 50/ 5/ 5 1017.4 Execution Rocks 1530 81 80/ 4/ 4 N/A Western LI Sound 1445 81 190/ 2/ 4 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1524 81 170/ 16/ 17 1016.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: EWR had some southerly affect from the Bay holding at 88. winds now more SW, see if they spike. Or perhaps there was some calibration done there. on TJFK radar it looks like the sea breeze moved east on the past few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Ocean temperatures running near 80° STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1540 79 160/ 4/ 6 1016.5 20 S Fire Island 1540 100/ 4/ 4 1016.7 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1550 78 75 CALM / 2 1016.9 3/ 7 15 E Barnegat Li 1526 79 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1550 77 1017.7 2/ 6 Kings Point 1524 82 50/ 5/ 5 1017.4 Execution Rocks 1530 81 80/ 4/ 4 N/A Western LI Sound 1445 81 190/ 2/ 4 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1524 81 170/ 16/ 17 1016.8 big change from a few months ago when SST were well below normal in the NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: big change from a few months ago when SST were well below normal in the NE Just a brief SST drop before rising again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, psv88 said: big change from a few months ago when SST were well below normal in the NE 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just a brief SST drop before rising again. 74 degree water at the end of the Ambrose channel yesterday in 75ft deep water. That’s warm for that far out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 One good storm that creates some upwelling and temperatures on the surface will drop quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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