July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Cfa]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dp is 58. Wow

Huge difference here, it’s 88/75 (HI 98).

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Huge difference here, it’s 88/75 (HI 98).

88/63 here

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

I started writing about the higher minimums almost 20 years ago when I was on the weather channel board...long gone are the years like 1962 when NYC had less than 10 days with a minimum 70 or higher...it does that in ten days every year it seams...the average amount of 70 degree minimums in NYC has gone up by at least 10 since 2000...

Now that you mention it I remember that. You've been ahead of the curve longer than the rest of us

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the really impressive record high temperatures in recent years have come during the cold season. The new all-time monthly highs of 96°in October 2019 and 80° for February 2018. We have been lucky that the most extreme high temperatures haven’t been in July or August. But we saw that 108° new all time high at Newark in July 2011.

One all time record high per decade is ok with me. If it was the same number of record high minimums we've seen imagine what our air conditioning bills would be We'd be looking at something similar to the climate in Dallas.

[doncat]

Did make it to 95° after am low of 69° ...dews mainly around 60° during the day. Yet to really have one of those truly sultry oppressive days this summer...the kind with mid upper 70's lows and mid 90's highs with uncomfortable dps thru out the day.

[psv88]

“Sea breeze made it here”, 88/71/94 now. Nasty

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

“Sea breeze made it here”, 88/71/94 now. Nasty

I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling. 

These ocean temperatures near 80°have become the norm in recent years.
 

NY Harb Entrance 2150               78  

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here.

Current temp 93/DP 64/RH 38%

[dWave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling. 

Went to Jones Beach earlier and the water was very warm, especially by NY standards. Definetly feel the higher humidty there. 

Back home 90 after high of 94. Dewpoint was upper 50s, spiking to 70 now.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared into the 90s across much of the region today. The South Shore of Long Island and Connecticut were exceptions. Tomorrow will be even hotter. Temperatures will likely approach or exceed 100° in the Baltimore-Washington region.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 18):

Albany: 10 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 9 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 24 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 2 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 13 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 14 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 13 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 7 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 11 (2019: 27 days)
Philadelphia: 16 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 26 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 9 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 9 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -2.65.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.835.

On July 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.078 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.181.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 48 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4°.

 

[SACRUS]

7/18

LGA: 95
EWR: 93
New Brnswck: 93* (nearby site/ site down since 7/17 PM)
ACY: 93
PHL: 93
TEB: 92
TTN: 92
BLM: 91
NYC: 91
JFK: 89
ISP: 88

[mgerb]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

The New Brunswick (Rutgers) site hasnt updated since 1900 last night.  Not sure if anyone on this is affiliated with that site and has any update.  It does happen time to time.

Not sure what's up with the Met department page, but we're still bringing in the data through our NJWxNet site. So you should be able to find what you need here!

https://www.njweather.org/station/1101

[psv88]

Went to Robert Moses this evening. Water was like a bath tub

[dWave]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Went to Robert Moses this evening. Water was like a bath tub

Was going there but they were saying it was full and closed just after 10am. Just missed the cut off, found an open field at Jones Beach and it sure was bath water.  I was a little amazed.

[doncat]

Cooling off more slowly tonight...76° still at 3am with a light sw wind.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 85degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.9[78.3].         Should be about +3.5[80.4] by the 27th.

77*(83%RH) here at 6am, M. clear, haze.       78*(85%RH)by 9am.       80*(80%RH) at 10am.       84*(72%RH) by Noon.         84*(81%RH) at 2pm., more clouds.        Just 82*---84* the last two hours with RH about 80%.         The WeatherBug Station in CI is buggy and must catch the sun everyday because it is at 92----simply Bull.        82*(83%RH) at 5pm.

[tim]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Higher dew points holding on along the South Shore. 84/72 in Wantagh. Some fog coming ashore now in the Hamptons.

 

 

 

 

...fog came in around 1pm on saturday and it did not lift all day..made for a uncomfortable wet mess

on saturday..not what i would call a nice beach day here in westhampton dunes..probably the same deal today.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, tim said:

...fog came in around 1pm on saturday and it did not lift all day..made for a uncomfortable wet mess

on saturday..not what i would call a nice beach day here in westhampton dunes..probably the same deal today.

Yeah, your area is closest to the marine layer again today. ISP starting the day with a 76° dew point and dense fog in the Hamptons.

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   76  76 100 SW8       29.98R FOG

East Hampton   FOG       72  72  99 SW6       29.99R VSB<1/4

 

[dWave]

Starting the day at 82 dew 71.

[uncle W]

LGA had a low of 80 this morning...as predicted it is the first place for an 80 degree minimum...

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning American Weather participants!

Rutgers site looks to be working as of a few minutes ago.  If not, please inform. I'd send them a message but I think whatever it was to halt posting data, is resolved. 

High T yesterday here in Wantage (less than 1.5 mi from Space Farms) was 89.6-- so that goes as 90 and our heat wave has started.  

Temp Outlook: I've no change in overall max T/HI through next Sunday26th as per yesterday.

GFS continues to try to cool us Fri-weekend while EC/GGEM do not-jury still out but am not buying all that relief in the GFS around here. GFS may be too robust with a short wave passage late this workweek and the subsequent associated pattern cooling. The EC ensemble 500MB pattern is decidedly weaker with that far eastern Canada cooling.

Convection Outlook: 

Monday..a little worried that upstream severe this evening sends dying showers/thunder in here predawn Monday, with the associated surface wind shift too close for us in the afternoon except southeastern New England and s of I80 in NJ.  That could mean nada for most of the NYC forum except NJ s of I80?  However,  it's too early for me to throw in the towel.  While modeled CAPE is not quite as robust on the EC (my main cue guide as prior operational modeling), it still has plenty of PWAT and KI over us through early Monday afternoon.  Won't start a topic on the SPCD2 marginal(I liked it's read) until late today. Want to see the HRRR (12z version through 18z Sunday pick up on something around 17z, and certainly the 18z run pick up on something for Monday afternoon).  UK has a little something tomorrow morning while other Global models in general have dried out the QPF  here in the NYC forum coverage area.   So, the heat may be wasted for convection here...I just don't know, but the past 24 hours of modeling has me much less certain on Monday's convective threat outcome.  IF convection does flare, mid level lapse rates look pretty sizable to enhance convection. Winds marginal. Just too early.

Wednesday should have some pretty good activity in our area...stronger signal than tomorrow=Monday.

Thursday...? potential exists for sizable convection but need to focus on Monday, Wednesday first.

Saturday night-Sunday:  GFS is basically zip but I like the GGEM-EC staying on message with main uncertainty where the strongest convection will track. A northwest flow severe signal is d present (mid level northwesterly enhanced flow) with capping a possible issue (along the edge of the -4C 500MB might be where to find the convection). So this too is uncertain, because  of modeling differences. 

Til later--- I'm probably off line til late day. 838A/19

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, dWave said:

Was going there but they were saying it was full and closed just after 10am. Just missed the cut off, found an open field at Jones Beach and it sure was bath water.  I was a little amazed.

We are planning on getting there tomorrow morning when they open so we can get a few hours before it gets busy. We went to Misquamicut in RI last week and the place was packed which made it less than no fun. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, your area is closest to the marine layer again today. ISP starting the day with a 76° dew point and dense fog in the Hamptons.

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   76  76 100 SW8       29.98R FOG

East Hampton   FOG       72  72  99 SW6       29.99R VSB<1/4

 

Tomorrow,  Monday, morning will the fog be like that as far west as Robert Moses?

[Cfa]

Low of 71 here, already at 85.

Should be hotter than yesterday (92).

[Rtd208]

Temp on the rise quickly here this morning.

Current temp 86/DP 71/RH 61%

[Rjay]

West wind.  89 here right now

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

LGA had a low of 80 this morning...as predicted it is the first place for an 80 degree minimum...

90° at 10 am.

LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY   90  65  43 SW8     

[saberonyx]

Levittown starting to cook


.

[Rtd208]

Dewpoints are higher so far today versus yesterday across the region. If that holds then today should be a much more oppressive day.

[Cfa]

90/77 (HI 103) here. No clouds in the sky, though the air itself feels like a smothering cloud.

[SACRUS]

88/68 off a low of 69 here.  Queue Billy Stewart - Summertime.

Hottest day(s) of the season Sun - Tue (so far) with chance of triple digits in EWR, LGA, JFK.  Only clouds and storms could prevent upper 90s to low 100s.  By Tue PM / Wed more SSW flow brings the dewpoints / widespread storms and may make it hard Wed to continue to the 90s but with enough sun and high launch pad could be day 5 for many of 90s as 850s surge again Tue and remain near >18c  - 20c.  Overall looking warm to hot as the WAR builds west periodically in the next 10 days.  May get some onshore flow again next weekend but otherwise Sat (7/25 - 26) should see surge of stronger heat nearby.  Longer range still a bit back and forth but guidance has WAR nearby and ridge bopping between the midwest / OV and SE between 7/25 - 7/29.  Does look to be some trough and chance for NE'rly flow by the 27-28th.  Beyond there we'll see where the ridge gets anchored but would lean continues warm and wet (stormier) into the end of July.