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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Euro maxes out temperatures  Sunday and Monday with the highest dew points Monday. Also has convection along a weak front on Monday. Should the convection and clouds hold off, then temperatures and heat indices would be higher Monday.

 

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E78B1A65-13FB-4C6C-B562-75781AB43887.thumb.png.28ecb8d92f902b784797f741d6bcec7a.png

D59B41EE-B322-4EF8-9F5A-FB9F927E8AB0.thumb.png.89a69afe65ca52f23d437fffda72d7fb.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Euro maxes out temperatures  Sunday and Monday with the highest dew points Monday. Also has convection along a weak front on Monday. Should the convection and clouds hold off, then temperatures and heat indices would be higher Monday.

 

7A032074-0797-4AF6-BD8E-2B994FB24683.thumb.png.ec393ef5a15a115690e9d8f79f865c79.png


E78B1A65-13FB-4C6C-B562-75781AB43887.thumb.png.28ecb8d92f902b784797f741d6bcec7a.png

D59B41EE-B322-4EF8-9F5A-FB9F927E8AB0.thumb.png.89a69afe65ca52f23d437fffda72d7fb.png

 

 

Should be some decent convection around on Monday.

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far the coolest minimum in Central Park this month is 67...if that holds up it will become a new record for the highest July monthly minimum...it was 69 this morning in a little rain in NYC...it broke a long stretch with a minimum 70 or higher...

Have to see if we get any true cooler air from any front / trough in the 7/27 - 28 period before next heat blast ejects east from plains / OV

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A widespread heat wave will be overspreading the region starting this weekend. Parts of the Baltimore-Washington, which saw readings top out at 98° in Baltimore today, could see temperatures approach or exceed 100° at the peak of the heat wave.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +5.91.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.505.

On July 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.178 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.250.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 47 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4°.

 

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31 minutes ago, dWave said:

Driving out of Yonkers down the Sprain just missed most of it in my rearview.  Moving along/north of city line. New rochelle, sound shore towns etc up next. Maybe Nassau

Incoming here

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