PB-99 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 The 3k NAM has 2 possible lines tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Another case of record heat missing to our north this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Up to 1.40" of rain for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Another case of record heat missing to our north this year. Good. Keep that BS up there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Overnight, Fay will continue to move northward in New York State and then into New England. Sunshine will return tomorrow with noticeably warmer temperatures. With a high temperature of 91°, Washington, DC registered its 15th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 18-August 2, 2011 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 16 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +21.85. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.909. On July 9, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.522 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.598. That was the 20th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. That broke the old record of 19 consecutive days in Phase 1, which was set during the July 6-24, 2004 period. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 40 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 4 hours ago, PB-99 said: The 3k NAM has 2 possible lines tomorrow Going to be a disgusting day with high dew points (mid to upper 70's!) and high PWAT's. Instability values will be impressive and we may benefit from good timing (afternoon start time). Hopefully we don't get any morning activity to screw us over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 Picked up 1.43" of rain for the day yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Looking beyond today: Timing of convection uncertain but Monday the 13th could see a few hailers... timing of convection is my concern. Tuesday: leftover in se NYS?? Thursday the 16th looks interesting to me but convective debris may nix a fairly potent day---which has a nicely modeled 500mb wind field, CAPE etc. This is not the end of potency per overall USA-Canadian jet and attempted thrusts of heat into the ne USA beyond the 16th. Enjoy every minute of this active period. 605A/11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 11 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Good. Keep that BS up there. Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby. New run Old run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 81.5degs., or +3.5degs. 74* here at 6am(93%RH), cirrus cover. 75* at 7am. 80*(91%RH)by Noon. 82* at 7:30pm was the high. The next 17 days on the GFS: 78/93 = 85.5>>>> +7.5. If this model only knew what was happening in the stratosphere, where it was warming and where it was cooling----it might produce a coherent LR forecast somewhere along the line. It has been showing 100's since June 04, I believe, in its LR outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 A very uncomfortable morning out there. Current temp 81/DP 76/RH 85% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 The HRRR has a similar look to yesterday's 3k NAM with 2 small lines of cells into the the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Very humid, reminds me of a Miami morning. 81 dew 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: A very uncomfortable morning out there. Current temp 81/DP 76/RH 85% uncomfortable is putting it mildly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Stand still and sweat. Yuck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 75/74 and overcast here, skies were clearer overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 JFK close to adding a 2nd 75 degree dew point day for the year so far. Could put them on track for 5 consecutive years with double digit annual numbers. Record number of days since the super El Niño in 2016. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 the number of 75 degree dew point days coincide with the number of 80 degree minimum nights...last year NYC and Newark had a daily minimum over 80 on the 2oth and 21st....this year the only thing that will stop NYC from having a 80 degree minimum day is thunderstorms... NYC and Newark... min/max.......dates... 81/90......7/03/1876 81/90......7/19/1878 80/95......7/07/1883 80/94......7/25/1885 81/91......8/11/1891 82/98......8/09/1896 80/94......8/10/1896 81/96......8/11/1896 81/95......7/18/1900 80/95......6/30/1901 82/100....7/02/1901 80/96......7/18/1905 80/95......7/19/1905 80/92......8/11/1905 80/87......7/23/1906 80/94......8/06/1906 80/90......7/05/1908 81/95......7/06/1908 84/93......7/07/1908 81/93......8/05/1908 80/87......8/06/1908 82/94......8/13/1908 84/93......8/14/1908 82/100....7/31/1917 82/98......8/01/1917 80/96......8/06/1918 82/104....8/07/1918 81/94......7/20/1930 80/98......8/02/1933 81/100....6/26/1952 80/95......7/16/1952 80/101....7/22/1957 81/95......7/23/1978 82/102....7/21/1980 80/96......8/08/1980 80/95......8/09/1980 80/95......8/15/1985 80/94......8/12/1988 80/99......8/14/1988 81/97......8/15/1988 80/100....7/08/1993 80/102....7/10/1993 84/102....7/15/1995 82/102....7/05/1999 83/101....7/06/1999 82/103....8/09/2001 82/95......7/03/2002 81/96......7/04/2002 80/95......7/30/2002 80/98......8/13/2002 80/99......8/13/2005 83/97......8/02/2006 81/103....7/06/2010 80/100....7/07/2010 80/97......7/24/2010 84/104....7/22/2011 83/100....7/23/2011 82/94......7/20/2015 80/96......7/23/2016 81/96......8/13/2016 81/92......8/29/2018 82/95......7/20/2019 80/95......7/21/2019 ................................................................................. Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days... min/max...date... 80/97.....7/17/1968 80/90.....7/24/1972 80/97.....8/03/1975 80/98.....7/23/1978 81/101...7/21/1980 80/98.....7/09/1981 80/94.....7/10/1981 80/100...7/18/1982 80/98.....7/19/1982 80/98.....7/16/1983 80/97.....8/15/1985 80/95.....8/12/1988 80/98.....8/14/1988 81/99.....8/15/1988 82/105...7/08/1993 83/104...7/09/1993 84/105...7/10/1993 80/99.....7/11/1993 80/97.....7/12/1993 82/104...7/15/1995 81/103...7/05/1999 82/102...7/06/1999 80/99.....8/01/1999 82/101...8/08/2001 82/98.....7/03/2002 81/100...7/04/2002 81/96.....7/30/2002 80/102...8/13/2005 81/100...8/02/2006 80/101...8/03/2006 80/98.....6/28/2010 81/103...7/06/2010 82/99.....7/24/2010 86/108...7/22/2011 86/102...7/23/2011 82/100...7/19/2013 80/97.....7/20/2015 80/98.....7/23/2016 80/97.....8/14/2016 80/98.....7/20/2019 80/99.....7/21/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Following Fay moving through the area, the models backed off the heat they had forecast day 6-10. The ridge amplification looks less impressive now. Just enough high pressure holds on east of New England for more S to SSE onshore flow. But the dew points could turn out to be a bigger story with numerous days in the 70s coming up. So clouds and convection may be a player with such high dew points and weak front or low pressure nearby. New run Old run I'm telling ya Chris, the pattern this season has been utterly perfect for tropical systems to hit our area the hardest. This might be the most likely year of our lifetimes for this region to get hit by tropical systems. The heat to our north is a classic blocking pattern that makes that likely (Buffalo 98, second hottest on record, 96 in VT and ME, tied for hottest on record and 99 in Montreal, second hottest on record.). If we were in the area of the higher heat anomalies those tropical systems would be hitting the Carolinas and the SE, but this looks like the year of the MidAtlantic and Northeast. Next year is going to be the year of the big heat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 On 7/10/2020 at 9:49 AM, wdrag said: Not sure of surface wind direction when 100F in NYC CP-LGA... would think between 260-310 degrees? I know there is talk of 100F in the forum... cant remember myself, the 100F day wind direction but am pretty sure isobars were west-east to northwest-southeast. EWR I think can more easily reach 100 on a sfc wind backed to 230degrees. Might be worth a check. I'd like to see 850T at least 20C, closer to 23C at 12z-18z of the proposed 100F day. Walt, on a northerly to northwesterly wind, JFK is actually hotter than either NYC or LGA and more closely matches EWR. In SW Nassau County we are usually hotter than the city on those winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 A muggy 86/75 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Sun finally out, 82/76 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Pouring..a little thunder. Looks sunny a few blocks east. 82 dew 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Downpour starts to move away but it keeping filling in behind it. Didnt realize storms would be moving south to north today..or SSW to NNE. Antidotely, I remember t storms coming from the south as some of the most prolific rain makers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 Current temp 86/DP 76/RH 72% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 3 hours ago, uncle W said: the number of 75 degree dew point days coincide with the number of 80 degree minimum nights...last year NYC and Newark had a daily minimum over 80 on the 2oth and 21st....this year the only thing that will stop NYC from having a 80 degree minimum day is thunderstorms... NYC and Newark... min/max.......dates... 81...........7/01/1872 82...........7/02/1872 81/90......7/03/1876 81/90......7/19/1878 80/95......7/07/1883 80/94......7/25/1885 81/91......8/11/1891 82/98......8/09/1896 80/94......8/10/1896 81/96......8/11/1896 81/95......7/18/1900 80/95......6/30/1901 82/100....7/02/1901 80/96......7/18/1905 80/95......7/19/1905 80/92......8/11/1905 80/87......7/23/1906 80/94......8/06/1906 80/90......7/05/1908 81/95......7/06/1908 84/93......7/07/1908 81/93......8/05/1908 80/87......8/06/1908 82/94......8/13/1908 84/93......8/14/1908 82/100....7/31/1917 82/98......8/01/1917 80/96......8/06/1918 82/104....8/07/1918 81/94......7/20/1930 80/98......8/02/1933 81/100....6/26/1952 80/95......7/16/1952 80/101....7/22/1957 81/95......7/23/1978 82/102....7/21/1980 80/96......8/08/1980 80/95......8/09/1980 80/95......8/15/1985 80/94......8/12/1988 80/99......8/14/1988 81/97......8/15/1988 80/100....7/08/1993 80/102....7/10/1993 84/102....7/15/1995 82/102....7/05/1999 83/101....7/06/1999 82/103....8/09/2001 82/95......7/03/2002 81/96......7/04/2002 80/95......7/30/2002 80/98......8/13/2002 80/99......8/13/2005 83/97......8/02/2006 81/103....7/06/2010 80/100....7/07/2010 80/97......7/24/2010 84/104....7/22/2011 83/100....7/23/2011 82/94......7/20/2015 80/96......7/23/2016 81/96......8/13/2016 81/92......8/29/2018 82/95......7/20/2019 80/95......7/21/2019 ................................................................................. Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days... min/max...date... 80/97.....7/17/1968 80/90.....7/24/1972 80/97.....8/03/1975 80/98.....7/23/1978 81/101...7/21/1980 80/98.....7/09/1981 80/94.....7/10/1981 80/100...7/18/1982 80/98.....7/19/1982 80/98.....7/16/1983 80/97.....8/15/1985 80/95.....8/12/1988 80/98.....8/14/1988 81/99.....8/15/1988 82/105...7/08/1993 83/104...7/09/1993 84/105...7/10/1993 80/99.....7/11/1993 80/97.....7/12/1993 82/104...7/15/1995 81/103...7/05/1999 82/102...7/06/1999 80/99.....8/01/1999 82/101...8/08/2001 82/98.....7/03/2002 81/100...7/04/2002 81/96.....7/30/2002 80/102...8/13/2005 81/100...8/02/2006 80/101...8/03/2006 80/98.....6/28/2010 81/103...7/06/2010 82/99.....7/24/2010 86/108...7/22/2011 86/102...7/23/2011 82/100...7/19/2013 80/97.....7/20/2015 80/98.....7/23/2016 80/97.....8/14/2016 80/98.....7/20/2019 80/99.....7/21/2019 I am curious which location in NYC===your data is official for. I assume Central Park. Because I once downloaded the daily records to an Excel file and I see there that July 01, 02 are listed as 75,78----for the lows. Their period of June 28-==July 05 1872 constituted a spectacular (for the time frame) heatwave of 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Most downpours..flash flood warning for NE NJ and in Queens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Sunshine in between showers..adding to humidity. 83 dew 78 HI 93. Central park is 81 with a 77 dew point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 88/75 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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