Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Partly Cloudy/hazy, 84 dew 74 HI 91. Heat Advisory issued today and tomorrow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: The 3k nam...lol Figures it starts largely out at sea on models yesterday and prior and most of the rain would hit SE Mass, and it ends up tracking inland like this now and we get not much for the opposite reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 the 3km nam likes to take everything too far west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 3 hours ago, Rjay said: @wdrag should start a Friday thread! Hi! The primary reason i didn't is it could be a named storm, plus dealing with the uncertainty of this afternoons potential 2-4" clusters (not well modeled so far). Let's get to 9PM tonight and see where we're at. I don't like to post wrong ideas, which I'm a little worried about for this afternoon. For Tri-early Sat: (50% Fay?) Been a little concerned about ensemble and UKMET east of us on the Friday track which probably would feature most of the qpf along and east of the low. Haven't evaluated Friday more than cursory. You're welcome to start the topic but for now, for myself working with the forum, just waiting another 12 hrs or so to have a little more confidence. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hi! The primary reason i didn't is it could be a named storm, plus dealing with the uncertainty of this afternoons potential 2-4" clusters (not well modeled so far). Let's get to 9PM tonight and see where we're at. I don't like to post wrong ideas, which I'm a little worried about for this afternoon. For Tri-early Sat: (50% Fay?) Been a little concerned about ensemble and UKMET east of us on the Friday track which probably would feature most of the qpf along and east of the low. Haven't evaluated Friday more than cursory. You're welcome to start the topic but for now, for myself working with the forum, just waiting another 12 hrs or so to have a little more confidence. Even if it's a named storm you can create a topic in this subforum especially since it might affect our area. We will wait until you're ready. Thank you for all your contributions. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 I see NHC increased to 70% prob for naming... per 8AM TWO. Need time to think on this...include see the UK/EC op around 230P. Thanks for your vote of confidence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: GFS joining the Euro and EPS on potential record breaking heat from the Plains to the East Coast next week. Let's hope this is as accurate as 9 day temp forecasts usually are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 Brutal out there. Current temp 87/DP 74/RH 66% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 84/76 here, heat index is 93 but it feels even hotter than that to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Starting subtropical low/??FAY?? topic in a few min. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 sorry for being outta the loop been away for a week, if and when is this sub tropical low will potentially hit us? friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: sorry for being outta the loop been away for a week, if and when is this sub tropical low will potentially hit us? friday? Friday/Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: sorry for being outta the loop been away for a week, if and when is this sub tropical low will potentially hit us? friday? Dreary weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dreary weekend Sunday looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 86° high today..thunder around but just 0.17" in the Vantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 First 75 degree dew point day from JFK to ISP and you could really feel it. Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 78 75 Wantagh N/A 79 75 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 78 75 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: 86° high today..thunder around but just 0.17" in the Vantage. hit 90 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Heat advisory for the city and NENJ tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Tomorrow will be steamy with readings near or above 90° in a large part of the region. Late in the week into the weekend, parts of the region could be impacted by tropical moisture. At that time, the region could see some rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The potential for a swath of 2"-4" rainfall amounts with some locally higher figures exists. The guidance remains in disagreement over the location where the heaviest rain will fall. With a high temperature of 92°, Washington, DC registered its 13th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 21-August 2, 2016 when the temperature also reached 90° or above on 13 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +1.66. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.359. On July 7, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.650 (RMM). That was the fourth highest amplitude in July when the MJO was in Phase 1. The July 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.605. That was the 18th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. The last time the MJO had at least as long a stretch in Phase 1 occurred during September 21-October 8, 2019 when the MJO was also in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 38 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 7/8 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 90 LGA: 89 EWR: 86 BLM: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 86 JFK: 84 ISP: 84 NYC: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 High for the day was 88 here. Picked up 0.18" of rain for the day. Current temp 75/DP 73/RH 94% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 85degs., or about 7degs. AN. GFS has 8 100's starting July 16. No comment. At least Dallas/Fort Worth beats us with 16 straight 100's. They once actually had 43 straight happen. Latest NAM drops from 3" to just 0.5" for tomorrow. Keep up the good work boys, you are due for a 'raise'------to the window sill and OUT! lol. 75* here at 6am(95%RH)hazy blue. 75* FOG<0.1 at 7am. Fog lifted by 9am, 76*---but not really clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Will Central Park finally hit the 100 degree mark in a week or so? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Will Central Park finally hit the 100 degree mark in a week or so? Not after all the rain we are about to get. Weeds and foliage for the loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 77/74 here in Havana (I mean CNJ). Low clouds burning off with a general S/SE flow. Very warm airmass >18c (850 temps) should allow 90 degree readings in places that stay sunny away from the coast. The storm that could be Fay will bring 2 - 4 swath of rains Fri PM into Sat AM PM. Clear things out Sunday and begin the warmup as ridge builds over the Mid West and Mid Atalntic / Northeast 7/15 - D12 and beyond. Western Atlantic ridge builds west and may hook with the MW ridge and enhance heights the week of the 7/19. Perhaps the hottest airmass of the season and in a few years. Could push triple digits in LGA, EWR, JFK, PHL, TTN. Does look to include regular storms which should help keep things wetter. Pushing a hot July and w'll see if we go more 2013 / 2017 like which was followed by a cooler / wetter August or do we continue the hot run like 2016,2012 and keep the wamrth into August, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Jul precip so far EWR: 3.07 TEB: 3.04 New Brnswck: 1.99 ISP: 1.06 NYC: 0.72 TTN: 0.53 JFK: 0.52 LGA: 0.42 PHL: 0.25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 10AM Roundup LGA: 84 / 70 ACY: 83 / 72 ISP: 81 / 71 EWR: 81 / 74 NYC: 81 / 72 TEB: 81 / 73 PHL: 81 / 73 New Brnswck: 80 / 74 BLM: 80 / 76 JFK: 78 / 74 TTN: 78 / 72 CNJ: 80 / 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saberonyx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Warming up fast here in Levittown and I’m seeing some nice blue sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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