forkyfork Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: WAR retrograde signal showing up toward day 10. i've posted before that it's the only way we'll get any extended heat this year a la july 2013 oh how we pray 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Looks like are rain chances will be there going forward along with the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: It figures that we would start getting storm tracks like this once July came around. Get tracks like that in 6 months and have @wdrag starting new threat threads every few days...oh how we pray 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 47 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Get tracks like that in 6 months and have @wdrag starting new threat threads every few days...oh how we pray Same day multiple threads for different day threats wound be quite a challenge to S19’s post limit. As always ... 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Get tracks like that in 6 months and have @wdrag starting new threat threads every few days...oh how we pray Agree. This winter @wdrag starts all the winter storm threat threads, if we have any lolz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures rose only into the 80s across much of the region. Parts of Long Island and the Connecticut shore remained in the 70s. Tomorrow will likely be somewhat warmer. Late in the week, parts of the region could be impacted by some tropical moisture. At that time parts of the area could see some rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 12th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 11-22, 2019 when the temperature also reached 90° or above on 12 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was -3.08. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.084. On July 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.607 (RMM). That was the fourth highest amplitude on record for July when the MJO was in Phase 1. The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.496. That was the 17th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. The last time the MJO had a longer stretch in Phase 1 occurred during September 21-October 8, 2019 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 37 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 7 hours ago, FPizz said: Yup, super dry here. Rained here yesterday for about 4 minutes. Had a friend over today and she lives 1 mile from here and said they got a downpour yesterday afternoon...I said it looked like we were surrounded by storms and could hear the thunder, but over my house was bright sunshine...not a drop... That storm a couple hours ago developed right over us it looked like on radar...nothing again It's really really dry now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 7/7 TTN: 90 PHL: 88 ACY: 86 EWR: 83 NYC: 82 JFK: 82 TEB: 82 BLM: 82 New Brnswck: 82 LGA: 81 ISP: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 8, 2020 Author Share Posted July 8, 2020 The 06z NAM/GFS is much wetter for Friday/Saturday. Not sure what the Euro showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 84degs., or 6degs. AN. Target July 17 to be 100. 2 of 3 models are in the hundreds. Earlier I mentioned the GFS had July 16 zeroed in as the hottest day in NYC history at >>>> 88/108----a double record. The next 17 days on the GFS are >>>>> 78/95 = 86.5 = +9.5. This would put July at about +7.7[84.3] by the 25th. Not likely. GFS is 2.5" with 35mph winds on Friday AM. 75* here at 6am, (93%RH) thin overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 57 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The 06z NAM/GFS is much wetter for Friday/Saturday. Not sure what the Euro showed. Around 1-2” it seems, locally higher spots, then hot for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 It was actually hail, not a bird.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: The 06z NAM/GFS is much wetter for Friday/Saturday. Not sure what the Euro showed. Rgem too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 @wdrag should start a Friday thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 77/73 Florida Feel. Low clouds burning off but already storms into EPA (mostly NE PA) right now. Yesterday anyone north i-195 was low / mid 80s with ares just south (TTN) near or at 90. Warm and wet (Florida-like) pattern continues the next 4 days. Today steamy but clouds should hinder widespread 90s but also may inhibit a Monday replay. Thursday is a beach day much like Tuesday perhaps a tinge warmer as 850 temps are near 20C. By Friday lat morning / early afternoon, as had been well modeled, the low should ride the coast from DE/MD into LI and provide a swath of rains to make up the May - Jun deficit 2 - 4 inches of rain (locally more) this is in addition to the 2 - 3 we have had the last 7 days. Storm pulls out by Sat afternoon. Beyond that warm and less wet as we get to Sunday 7/12 through Tue 7/14 with mainly upper 80s - near 90. Park needs some time to dry out. By 7/15 very strong ridge building into the GL, Mid West and Northeast. Western Atlantic ridge building west to o in the period will enhance heights perhaps ner 600 Dm over the Mid west. Between 7/15 and at least 7/20 could be hottest air- mass of the season. Perhaps EWR and others may see the return of triple digits in this period. Hve to watch anything undercutting the ridge but that would likely be towards the southeast. Tropical acitivity may also become more active. July precip totals TEB: 3.02 New Brnswk: 2.12 EWR: 1.92 NYC: 0.73 TTN: 0.53 JFK: 0.51 LGA: 0.41 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 The heat is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 06z euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 79/75 here, low was 74.... Low, thick clouds racing to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The heat is coming Its been around although this seems to be and having staying power. A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The heat is coming Can only keep it at bay for so long. Was just a question of when and for how long once it arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Can only keep it at bay for so long. Was just a question of when and for how long once it arrives. the sun angle is decreasing everyday.. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the sun angle is decreasing everyday.. A sun angle post in July! Great! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: It was actually hail, not a bird.... this is the only bird that can do this kind of damage... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 56 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Its been around although this seems to be and having staying power. A 54 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Can only keep it at bay for so long. Was just a question of when and for how long once it arrives. Yep, you will have the heat in the Midwest coming east along with the war to are East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Thinking Friday is much more active than expected. TS Fay is looking more and more likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Thinking Friday is much more active than expected. TS Fay is looking more and more likely. Could easily stay east and affect mostly coastal locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Fingers crossed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 Anyone have a map of how much rain has fallen in the area for the past month or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Could easily stay east and affect mostly coastal locations Precip looks to pivot N&W west even if it stays east. We'd likely get some tropical enhancement due to its close proximity. Also if it stays broad and/or subtropical which is more likely then the location of the CoC won't matter much in terms of impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Could easily stay east and affect mostly coastal locations The 3k nam...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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