July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Yes been tracking this as differing forecasts of the strength of the Western Atlantic ridge have 850MB temps between 16c and 20c Sun om and Mon evening.  Clouds and storms only thing that looks to limit strong heat.  But either way Dew point temps will make it real steamy ahead of Isaias.  Mosquito season this August..

Very good job way in advance nailing wetter than normal first week of August around here.   Looks difficult to miss.

[bluewave]

Numerous new highest low temperatures for the month of July across the region.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2019	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	1
2	2019	61	0
-	2012	61	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2008	66	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	68	1
-	2008	68	0
2	2019	67	0
-	1994	67	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	66	0
2	2020	65	1
-	2019	65	0
-	2015	65	0
-	1970	65	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2019	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	64	0
2	2020	63	1
-	1994	63	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	64	1
-	2019	64	0
-	1994	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	57	2
2	2019	54	1
-	2013	54	0
-	2012	54	9

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	0
2	2019	60	0
-	1931	60	0
-	1897	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	58	1
2	2019	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2011	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0

[Radders]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Numerous new highest low temperatures for the month of July across the region.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2019	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	1
2	2019	61	0
-	2012	61	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2008	66	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	68	1
-	2008	68	0
2	2019	67	0
-	1994	67	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	66	0
2	2020	65	1
-	2019	65	0
-	2015	65	0
-	1970	65	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2019	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	64	0
2	2020	63	1
-	1994	63	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	64	1
-	2019	64	0
-	1994	64	0

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	57	2
2	2019	54	1
-	2013	54	0
-	2012	54	9

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	63	0
2	2019	60	0
-	1931	60	0
-	1897	60	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	58	1
2	2019	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	67	1
2	2011	66	0
-	1994	66	0
-	1993	66	0

Those rural airport (Sussex and Orange) lowest minimums are impressive.

 

[SACRUS]

Lighting up a bit as clouds thin.  Trying to make a run at 80.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Lighting up a bit as clouds thin.  Trying to make a run at 80.

The sun is out in southern Westchester County.

[495weatherguy]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sun is out in southern Westchester County.

Sun starting to emerge at Nassau Suffolk line by Northern State pkwy

[doncat]

Looks like Friday's are our heat interrupter days...with a midnight high again.

[dWave]

some breaks on sun now. 81/70. midnight high of 82

[SACRUS]

24 minutes ago, doncat said:

Looks like Friday's are our heat interrupter days...with a midnight high again.

Yeah starting with Fay 7/10, storms 7/17 although warmest of the fridays (87 ewr and 86 LGA,)  and 7/24 last weeks rains / showers.

[SACRUS]

Up to 84 now.  You wonder if we had earlier clearing if a run at 90 was possible.

[doncat]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 84 now.  You wonder if we had earlier clearing if a run at 90 was possible.

Is your station online?

[Ace]

10 hours ago, wdrag said:

Agreed100%. will update by 830A. 

Upton is very bullish.

Although the focus of the long term remains Isaias, there is the
potential for a round of significant severe weather on Sunday.

A warm front is progged to be lifting thru the area on Sun. The 12Z
NAM builds SBCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. Sufficient shear puts the BRN
firmly in the supercell range. In addition, A high EHI embedded in
this regime will add a tor threat. It is still too far out to have
high confidence in the details and timing, but the data suggests the
ingredients are potentially there for a svr wx outbreak. Future
forecasts and SPC outlooks will refine this threat over the weekend.
Pops were limited to 50 percent based on the uncertainty, although
the NBM suggests categorical across the interior.

[SACRUS]

36 minutes ago, doncat said:

Is your station online?

No Don.  Been using my nephews station a few miles away as I have work done here.  

[wdrag]

51 minutes ago, Ace said:

Upton is very bullish.

Although the focus of the long term remains Isaias, there is the
potential for a round of significant severe weather on Sunday.

A warm front is progged to be lifting thru the area on Sun. The 12Z
NAM builds SBCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. Sufficient shear puts the BRN
firmly in the supercell range. In addition, A high EHI embedded in
this regime will add a tor threat. It is still too far out to have
high confidence in the details and timing, but the data suggests the
ingredients are potentially there for a svr wx outbreak. Future
forecasts and SPC outlooks will refine this threat over the weekend.
Pops were limited to 50 percent based on the uncertainty, although
the NBM suggests categorical across the interior.

Hi..thanks for this!  I agree BUT EC 12z run is drying out considerably during mid Sunday afternoon.  So SVR may be limited to 10A-3P time frame. That's too early for my liking but wind fields/CAPE/KI support. Just wish the EC hadn't accelerated. Need to rereview tomorrow morning. Interesting summer weather action on the horizon..we seem to be in the slot for the Sunday morning event, A PRE close by Monday night and then the main show, whatever it is Tuesday. Timing a little uncertain but I think we're in a good spot for at least a portion of our forum. Saw NHC at 5P.  Might be a little too dramatic but definitely squally potential. Thank you again. Walt 609P/31

[donsutherland1]

The hot July of 2020 ended on a cool note relative to the heat that the region has been experiencing. New York City finished July with a monthly mean temperature of 80.0°. That was the City's warmest July since 2011 when the temperature averaged 80.2°. There were also 14 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above, which was the most since 2011 when there were also 14.

At LaGuardia Airport, July finished with a monthly mean temperature of 82.9°. That surpassed the record of 82.8°from July 2010 that had been that site's hottest month on record. July 2020 also set records for all months with the most 90° or above days (19), 95° or above days (12) and most 80° or above low temperatures (6).

Warmer weather will return tomorrow and likely continue through at least the first week of August. The first week of August will likely be wetter than normal across parts of the region. Rainfall amounts could be enhanced as Isaias brings moisture to the region early next week.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was -16.01.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.980.

On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.017 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.101.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely see temperature anomalies of 1°-2° above normal.

 

[dWave]

Managed to get to 85 today

[donsutherland1]

This afternoon, the clouds broke for sunshine. In response, the temperature rose to 80°. Two photos:

[SACRUS]

7/31 was a fun month tracking heat, storms and TS Fay and now Isaias.  August looks to pick up right where Jul is handing off.

TEB: 85
TTN: 84
New Brnswck: 84
LGA: 84
PHL: 84
EWR: 83
ACy: 82
ISP: 81
NYC: 80
JFK: 79
BLM: 79

[Cfa]

82/70 today. 1.08” of rain.

This month had a mean of 79.1 (87.7/70.4) here, and 5.86” of rain, the bulk of which fell at the very beginning of the month and at the tail end of the month, the rest was mostly dry.

July had fifteen 90+ degree days in total, highest temp was 97 on the 27th, lowest was 63 on the 2nd. Highest low was 80 on the 28th, lowest high was 77 on the 7th. Warmest day was the 28th with a mean of 88 (96/80), coolest day was the 16th with a mean of 72 (78/66). Wettest day was the 1st with 1.69”.

[doncat]

Mean temp for July was 79.8° which is my 3rd warmest in 43 years beaten by 1999 and 2010. The 17 days of 90°+ ties for 2nd highest. Had 21 days with 70°+ min temp and 13 in a row.( which should end tomorrow). The 65° low for month is a record...Precip of 7.85" was well distributed thru out the month.

[bluewave]

In addition to all the heat and dew point records in July, Newark recorded its wettest July. It was also the wettest month at Newark to average over 80°. So this gives new meaning to warm and wet.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Avg Temperature
1	2020	11.17	80.8
2	1988	9.98	80.4
3	1984	8.65	76.5
4	2004	8.39	75.0
5	1996	8.27	73.8
6	1975	8.02	76.9
7	1938	7.96	75.5
8	1961	7.95	77.3
9	1967	7.53	74.2
10	1969	7.11	74.2

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Total Precipitation
1	2011	82.7	2.04
2	1993	82.5	2.15
3	2010	82.3	1.93
4	1994	81.9	3.57
5	2013	80.9	3.74
6	2020	80.8	11.17
-	2012	80.8	2.27
-	1999	80.8	1.01
7	2019	80.6	6.82
8	1955	80.5	1.14
9	1988	80.4	9.98
10	2002	80.0	1.19

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/31/2020 at 8:05 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The hot July of 2020 ended on a cool note relative to the heat that the region has been experiencing. New York City finished July with a monthly mean temperature of 80.0°. That was the City's warmest July since 2011 when the temperature averaged 80.2°. There were also 14 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above, which was the most since 2011 when there were also 14.

At LaGuardia Airport, July finished with a monthly mean temperature of 82.9°. That surpassed the record of 82.8°from July 2010 that had been that site's hottest month on record. July 2020 also set records for all months with the most 90° or above days (19), 95° or above days (12) and most 80° or above low temperatures (6).

Warmer weather will return tomorrow and likely continue through at least the first week of August. The first week of August will likely be wetter than normal across parts of the region. Rainfall amounts could be enhanced as Isaias brings moisture to the region early next week.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was -16.01.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.980.

On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.017 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.101.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely see temperature anomalies of 1°-2° above normal.

 

Don, July 2020 only lacked 100 degree days (even at LGA and EWR).  I wonder if July 2021 will surpass all these records.   Also, how did Providence manage to get a 100 degree day in July, when not even EWR, LGA or PHL for that matter hit 100?  I dont even think DCA hit 100!

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/1/2020 at 8:53 AM, bluewave said:

In addition to all the heat and dew point records in July, Newark recorded its wettest July. It was also the wettest month at Newark to average over 80°. So this gives new meaning to warm and wet.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Avg Temperature
1	2020	11.17	80.8
2	1988	9.98	80.4
3	1984	8.65	76.5
4	2004	8.39	75.0
5	1996	8.27	73.8
6	1975	8.02	76.9
7	1938	7.96	75.5
8	1961	7.95	77.3
9	1967	7.53	74.2
10	1969	7.11	74.2

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Total Precipitation
1	2011	82.7	2.04
2	1993	82.5	2.15
3	2010	82.3	1.93
4	1994	81.9	3.57
5	2013	80.9	3.74
6	2020	80.8	11.17
-	2012	80.8	2.27
-	1999	80.8	1.01
7	2019	80.6	6.82
8	1955	80.5	1.14
9	1988	80.4	9.98
10	2002	80.0	1.19

 

this fits Miami weather to a T.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/31/2020 at 8:55 AM, dWave said:

including 3 straight days with 80+ minimums, and 4 of 5 days. That level of sustained heat with no relief is worse than just very hot days. It takes quite a toll on you. We're not in FL with widespread central AC

I'd much rather have Phoenix heat than Miami heat/humidity.  AC should be mandatory in all housing and apartments now, as well as in schools and other buildings.