jm1220 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 No rain here but a heavy shower looks to have gone just south of here in Melville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 hour ago, PB-99 said: 100 https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/nj/colts-neck-township/KNJCOLTS26 I just checked, and it's now 107. Maybe the station is next to a pizza oven? At any rate, it's hot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: they just got .14 from a small cell so the record has been broken We had 40/40 winters and now an 80/10 July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 80.5 4 MONTH TO DATE 10.07 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, stemwinder said: I just checked, and it's now 107. Maybe the station is next to a pizza oven? At any rate, it's hot. Yeah you have to be careful with some of those PWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had 40/40 winters and now an 80/10 July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2020 80.5 4 MONTH TO DATE 10.07 we just can't get a front to fully clear the area. look at this trend for friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: High of 96, low of 80, if the rain stays away this should hold. Oh sure, it *would* rain today, any other day the showers are a miss, but today I get not one, but two, and with only 0.02” to show for it. Any more conveniently placed showers and I’m gonna unplug my PWS. 85/80 here now. 6 hours to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 94 hi after 79 am low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 High for the day was 96 here. Current temp 89/DP 72/RH 58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 This may be the first year that snowstorms and 100° temperatures missed us to the north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 96/78 max/min today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 The temperature reached 93° in Central Park for the third consecutive day. This is the second heat wave this month in Central Park. During the late afternoon, a few widely scattered showers moved through parts of the region. High temperatures elsewhere included: Baltimore: 94° Boston: 95° Burlington: 91° Islip: 95° New York City-JFK: 92° New York City-LGA: 97° New York City-NYC: 93° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 93° Washington, DC: 94° Somewhat cooler conditions are likely for the remainder of this week. However, readings will likely remain several degrees above normal. Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.8°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.5°-82.9° there. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The SOI was +3.57. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.575. On July 27, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.540 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.755. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 58 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0°. Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 7/28 LGA: 97 ISP: 95 EWR: 95 ACY: 95 TEB: 94 BLM: 94 JFK: 93 PHL: 93 NYC: 93 TTN: 92 New Brnswck: 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Should get two more days of the 90s streak (ECM has 850s spiking to near 18c - 20c Wed PM into Thu AM) before storms and clouds Friday keep temps in the low 80s. Sat pending on clouds may get some of the warmer spots to 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 You wonder if Friday the 31st could spoil some month average records if temps are stuck up in the upper 70s or near 80 (like last Friday and 7/10, 716) and the daily is below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 There is a storm over the ocean off the central Jersey coast. I can see the lightning flashes from my house. I remember being in Virginia Beach and seeing lightning from storms off North Carolina some 100 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 I saw lightning just above the tree tops, initially I thought it was something else as there isn’t a cloud in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. At this point I'm rooting for a warmer than normal September and first half of October. I planted a second crop in the garden that should mature by mid to late September so a few weeks leeway will be good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 The last 3 days of July are averaging 87degs., or 9.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.4[80.0]. July should end near +4.1[80.7]. Feel like betting on a BN (ASO)? You'll have to put up $4.00 to win $1.00. Going into the summer the odds were worse, you needed to wager $4.50. I think August itself will be near Normal with a + bias. But Alas, the odds on a BN winter are just $1.40:1.00 as of now. 80.0*(65%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 82*(62%RH) by 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Good Wednesday morning, Some of our forum participants have had enough of recharge by Wednesday afternoon August 5. Lot's of possibilities ahead, but which will produce? HEAT WAVE to continue 2 more days non-marine influenced regions..lower Hudson Valley and near NYC, and especially our non hilly NJ coverage area (Wantage only 87 yesterday). Today-tonight: No topic even if an isolated svr thunderstorm slides and dies out into se NYS/w CT portion of the forum at night. Saw some modeling for afternoon showers LI with minor CAPE today. Thursday night Friday morning: Terribly different modeling between the EC GFS---CAPE about 2000J different. EC with 3000+J of CAPE on LI 06z Friday. No wonder it's yielding hefty rains portions of the forum inclusive of LI/S CT. Also noted a substantial westerly jet core to our ne near or just s of Nova Scotia. UK is starting to throw some small bullseyes up here and even the GGEM has a hint. I may let this slide as a topic unless I see 4" potential and/or svr. Big CAPE can be dangerous. SPC has a MARGINAL Risk for a portion of the forum Thursday. PWAT per the EC is quite substantial so worthy of monitoring but no topic for now...uncertainty but am pretty sure it rains and some spots it rains hard (LI/CT best for now). Saturday night Sunday morning: WAA and it looks like potential for some pretty big shower/thunderstorm producers...this might be more NYC west across NJ/se NYS. Finally whatever any tropical connection...still looks like a favorable situation for increased moisture from the tropical system and a favorable jet structure to permit a band of excessive rainfall. Will future modeling hold for an as yet named storm? WPC has 1.5-3" up here Monday-Tuesday if I read their early morning guidance correctly. Summarizing: no new topics from me this morning. Eyeing Thursday night-Friday, and then a combined Sat night-Monday-Tuesday dual event topic. Need more time to see if it's worthy. 652A/29 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Notice how many top 10 warmest 80°Julys we have had since 2010. Even a place on Long Island like FRG is having one. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.8 3 - 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2019 81.5 0 4 2013 81.2 0 5 2016 81.1 0 6 1955 80.9 0 7 1966 80.8 0 8 2006 80.7 0 9 1994 80.6 0 10 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2020 80.8 3 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 3 2 2010 79.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 Current temp 86/DP 72/RH 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 86/70, another warm one on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Notice how many top 10 warmest 80°Julys we have had since 2010. Even a place on Long Island like FRG is having one. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.8 3 - 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2019 81.5 0 4 2013 81.2 0 5 2016 81.1 0 6 1955 80.9 0 7 1966 80.8 0 8 2006 80.7 0 9 1994 80.6 0 10 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2020 80.8 3 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 3 2 2010 79.7 0 2019 and 2020 are the only months on those lists that didn't have temps reach 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 86/70 and mostly clear. More low to mid 90s today and tomorrow. Friday looks like a stormy day and clear break in the heat streak, highs may be by way of midnight/overnight readings. Theme this July was Fay's rains (Friday 7/10), Fri (7/24) cloudy and showery, Fri 7/31 stormy. Saturday the storms are pulling away and we have to see how long clouds take to clear to determine if the warmer spots can tack on more 90s. Sunday another low is approaching from the west and W. AR pulses and expands west for a day or two. ECM has blast of >16c Sunday with 20c just south and east of the area. Could be another LI scorcher depending on clouds and rain. Warm and wet: Mon (8/2) through Thu (8/6) hung up pattern W. AR offshore with higher heights along the east coast, Rockies ridge and trough nearby into the GL/OV with waves of low pressure riding along the front. Pending on stegth of the WAR will see placement of the heaviest and persistent showers. Looks humid/ warm and wet with limited chances for 90s in this period. Beyond there the Rockies ridge should eject east and push more strong heat into the plains, GL and eventually the EC. Pending on the WAR, could see another very warm and hot period start the second week of August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it seems to be the Euro and EPS vs all the other models. I wonder if the Euro being further north is related to its tendency to sometimes overdo the SE Ridge? Or maybe the Euro can score a coup against the other guidance. As you mentioned, that jet streak through New England looks very impressive. So there should be a zone with very heavy rains and multiple waves of low pressure. Modeling has improved dramatically since I was a kid (1950s). Still, there are times when vast differences occur. Easy out is no action-and probably more often than not, nothing much happens. I like your suggestion on the Euro. We should have a better feel by 3P. Did see the 12z HRRR is trying to develop e-w band of convection across se NYS-southern New England (SNE) by 18z Thursday. SPC seems to be onto something in their early morning D2 outlook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 10AM Roundup BLM: 87 ACY: 87 EWR: 86 TTN: 85 LGA: 85 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85 JFK: 84 TEB: 84 NYC: 82 ISP: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it seems to be the Euro and EPS vs all the other models. I wonder if the Euro being further north is related to its tendency to sometimes overdo the SE Ridge? Or maybe the Euro can score a coup against the other guidance. As you mentioned, that jet streak through New England looks very impressive. So there should be a zone with very heavy rains and multiple waves of low pressure. the high res nam went in the euro's direction this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents Isaias getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents Isaias getting closer on that track Hispanola will shred it to pieces.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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