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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Still 84 here. Forecast says 78 tonight...UHI? I mean, obviously nothing on the scale of NYC and it’s immediate surroundings, but maybe? Long Island is fairly developed.

Even FOK is 79, its just warm air... Montauk is still 81

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The last four days of July are averaging 87degs., or 9.5degs.  AN.

Month to date is  +3.1[79.7].         July should end near  +4.1[80.6].     

GFS-Para refuses to play second fiddle to the CMC when it comes to this possible tropical blowup.     The GFS has no organization at this point any more.

gfsp_mslp_wind_us_32.png

79*(79%RH) here at 6am, scuzzy sky.     82*(75%RH) by 9am.       85*(65%RH) at 10am.      86*(66%RH) by Noon.

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Good Tuesday morning everyone,  

Posted a topic for today-tonight but only as a cover... just not an ideal SVR day.  

However, looking beyond, I see the possibilities for more topics-but wont start them til closer. In particular...Thursday afternoon-night-early Friday looks of interest to me with much much greater CAPE nearby (LI southward), decent flow aloft, a front and some pretty good KI.  This could be isolated SVR, but from my view...a bigger chance for a FF event somewhere in our area...particularly, as of this writing, CT/LI. Just need to get to Wednesday for a reevaluation.

Sunday-Monday: Already large QPF by WPC. Modeling has been consistent for several days on a ne USA event but location varies. No thoughts yet on most likely scenarios.  

Thereafter, the tropics for Tue-Wed, and whatever connection. That too looks of interest to me, not for any direct hit by any storm that may develop, but influence on a secondary inland band (a 6-12 hour band of heavy convection), in part associated with marginal inflow from the tropics/a surface convergence zone and clearly a RRQ quad of a strengthening upper level jet over New England/se Canada and adjacent waters. Whether this comes to pass, is very uncertain but it's what I've been seeing in some of the MODELED suggestions including QPF bands and wind fields aloft. This could fold if nothing forms in the Atlantic Basin the next couple of days, which would mean jet structures would change and be less favorable. Just need to wait it out. 

90+... may break se NYS-nw NJ-CT today due to clouds/showers, but resume Wednesday-Thursday, while parts of NJ/NYC area have a decent chance of continuing 90+ today, Wednesday-Thursday. HI may be greatest today on LI and I80 south of 100-104 before cloud cover/showers. 626A/28

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9 hours ago, psv88 said:

Even FOK is 79, its just warm air... Montauk is still 81

Yeah, warm air and high dew points. This may be the first time that a Long Island station had more 75° minimums than LGA in July.

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 
Missing Count
1 2020 12 4
2 2013 7 0
- 2010 7 0
4 2002 5 0
5 2019 4 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 75 
Missing Count
1 2010 19 0
2 2016 17 0
- 2013 17 0
4 1999 16 0
5 2020 11 4

 

 

 

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Must be one of the hottest nights we've had. Currently 85/72 HI 91. low waw 83. What's really impressive is how many pws stayed in the 80s beyond NYC. Its usually limited to the most urban neighborhoods and doesnt extend much beyond 5 boros if at all.  It looks like lots of 80s to just short of white plains (the actual city not to the airport area) 

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10 minutes ago, dWave said:

Must be one of the hottest nights we've had. Currently 85/72 HI 91. low waw 83. What's really impressive is how many pws stayed in the 80s beyond NYC. Its usually limited to the most urban neighborhoods and doesn't extend much beyond 5 boros if at all.  It looks like lots of 80s to just short of white plains (the actual city not to the airport area) 

It was still 80 here at midnight, that pretty much never happens. The 75 low is also really high for here.

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16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It was still 80 here at midnight, that pretty much never happens. The 75 low is also really high for here.

If the 76° minimum can hold through any convection later at HPN, then it would be 4th warmest for July. Notice the warm minimum theme with 4 other top 4 finishes since 2010.

28 Jul 7:56 am 81 69 67 W 8    10.00   FEW110 29.40 1007.8 29.79         82 76  
Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 81 1
2 2013 78 0
- 2011 78 1
- 1995 78 6
3 2019 77 0
- 2001 77 0
- 1978 77 0
- 1968 77 0
- 1957 77 0
4 2010 76 0
- 2002 76 0
- 1994 76 1
- 1993 76 0
- 1983 76 1
- 1982 76 0
- 1966 76 0
- 1965 76 0

 

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31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

FRG had a low of 81.   

That would be the highest in July since 2000 when the xmACIS2  record started. Looks like July 1999 had a 82° minimum. There was also another in August 2006. We'll have to see if that can hold through any convection later.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ny/farmingdale/KFRG/date/1999-7

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 79 4
- 2019 79 0
- 2013 79 0
- 2002 79 0
5 2015 78 0
- 2011 78 0
7 2016 77 0
- 2010 77 0
- 2001 77 0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2006 82 0
2 2016 79 0
3 2005 78 0
- 2001 78 1
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RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2020

...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PORTLAND ME...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT PORTLAND, ME YESTERDAY, JULY 27, WAS A VERY 
WARM 78 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE 
ON THIS DAY. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 69 DEGREES SET IN 1979 AND 
AGAIN IN 1989.

IN ADDITION THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES ALSO SETS A NEW ALL-
TIME RECORD FOR WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE PORTLAND JETPORT. 
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES SET ON JULY 22, 2011 AND AGAIN ON 
JULY 21, 2019.

 

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87/71. Off a low of 75 here.  Some clouds about 90 mins but are dissipating as the head east.  Enough launching pad and storms holding off till later will continue the 90s streak with more mid 90s today where its clear.  Wed and Thu again looks to see low/mid 90s with 850 temps >16c - 19C.  Thu.  At this time in  most spots Fri and Sat look (like last week) to break the streak although in the warmer spots we could see a few 90s.  ECM continues to show a quick surge of strong heat as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west on Sunday (8/2 - 8/3) Monday.  Humid and storms likely those days to watch timing.

Beyond there 8/3 - 8/9:  Warm and humid with plenty of storm chances withstrpng Rockies Ridge /  trough into the MW/GL and WAR nearby. Pending on strength and position of the W. AR and the Rockies ridge begins to migrate east into the Plains and OV may be closer to 8/7-8 before more sustained heat arrives.  Before that sprinkled upper 80s low 90s with plenty of humidity.  If we can get on the N/NW flow perhaps a day or two near or below normal.  Warm and wet theme by way of heavy rains not conistent rains. 

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