July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[uofmiami]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

interesting that your stations are always so much cooler than even the ASOS sites further S and E. You have lots of woods nearby? Elevation?

My house in Syosset is around 220 ft in elevation.  My parent's house in Muttontown, 154 ft elevation, has a preserve easement along their backyard, along with the area just being zoned for large lots.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

My house in Syosset is around 220 ft in elevation.  My parent's house in Muttontown, 154 ft elevation, has a preserve easement along their backyard, along with the area just being zoned for large lots.

Makes sense

[doncat]

95/68 here...Hi of 96.

[Rtd208]

Temp up to 97/DP 71/RH 43%

[dWave]

wind has turn more SW and very gusty. dew point is up slightly,  97/67, heat index 102.

[doncat]

Too bad we had that rainy interruption on Friday to our 90 degree streak.

[winterwx21]

Can't seem to make it above 95 here. Keeps going back and forth from 93 to 95. A little surprised as I thought we'd see upper 90s today.

[bluewave]

Another day with the SSTs at the buoys  around 80°. Even the Boston buoy is in the mid 70s.
 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1850               78  190/  6/  8 1008.9          2/ 8
20 S Fire Island 1850               81  210/ 14/ 16 1009.4          3/ 8
Great South Bay  1830            83     220/ 16/ 17   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1850            78 75  220/ 16/ 17 1009.1          3/ 9
15 E Barnegat Li 1826               81                N/A           3/ 9
Hudson Canyon    1850               79              1011.3          3/ 8

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      1750   83 75  240/  8/  8 1005.1          1/ 9
BUZZARDS BAY     1800          210/ 17/ 17 1009.3F
NANTUCKET SOUND  1840      76  220/ 16/ 19 1007.0F
MASS BAY-STELLWA NOT AVBL
ISLE OF SHOALS   1800   85     200/ 11/ 12 1005.2F
S OF BLOCK IS    1826      75                N/A           3/ 5

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Can't seem to make it above 95 here. Keeps going back and forth from 93 to 95. A little surprised as I thought we'd see upper 90s today.

Yeah, I've been 92-94 all day, touched 95 for a min or so.

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, I've been 92-94 all day, touched 95 for a min or so.

And now I'm down to 90. A very hot day for sure, but not the extreme heat that was advertised.

[lee59]

My high was 94.7 Still 94

[uofmiami]

Ended up hitting 95 at both stations for the high.  94.6 in Muttontown & 94.8 in Syosset, hottest temps to date this summer at both.

[Rjay]

I'm down to 91.  High 96.6 (97).  FRG beat me by .2 and the last time they were 97 I hit 96.2.  According the the records they only hit 96 today.  Prob some rounding bs.  Idk/c. 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

FRG got to 97 between hours.  Seabreeze made it there now though.  My high was 97 as well.   The warmest FRG got was 97/75/110.

@psv88

Fyi the bolded was 100% wrong.  I was reading wet bulb temp lofl.   The DP was in the 60s all day.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/25/2020 at 10:02 AM, dWave said:

Seeing more subtropical characterstics here. 

seeing more subtropical bugs here too unfortunately.

 

this climate kinda reminds me of Florida, especially in the summer.

It doesn't hit 100 there near the coast, but they always have this stifling humidity and temps in the 80s and 90s.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another day with the SSTs at the buoys  around 80°. Even the Boston buoy is in the mid 70s.
 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1850               78  190/  6/  8 1008.9          2/ 8
20 S Fire Island 1850               81  210/ 14/ 16 1009.4          3/ 8
Great South Bay  1830            83     220/ 16/ 17   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1850            78 75  220/ 16/ 17 1009.1          3/ 9
15 E Barnegat Li 1826               81                N/A           3/ 9
Hudson Canyon    1850               79              1011.3          3/ 8

STATION/POSITION TIME  TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                       AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC) (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
BOSTON BUOY      1750   83 75  240/  8/  8 1005.1          1/ 9
BUZZARDS BAY     1800          210/ 17/ 17 1009.3F
NANTUCKET SOUND  1840      76  220/ 16/ 19 1007.0F
MASS BAY-STELLWA NOT AVBL
ISLE OF SHOALS   1800   85     200/ 11/ 12 1005.2F
S OF BLOCK IS    1826      75                N/A           3/ 5

Chris, whats the record for max SST in our area?

I recall seeing 85 degree SST off the Jersey Shore in July 1993, never saw anything that high again.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the temp is rounded to the nearest degree c which is then rounded to f so be careful with the 5 min obs. stupid as hell

they had to change the saffir simpson scale because of similar rounding

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm down to 91.  High 96.6 (97).  FRG beat me by .2 and the last time they were 97 I hit 96.2.  According the the records they only hit 96 today.  Prob some rounding bs.  Idk/c. 

the high was 95 here, two degrees below last Monday when we hit 97.  I love the low humidity though.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Cfa said:

The sea breeze seems to have an immediate affect on the dew point while the temp responds a bit slower resulting in very high heat indices.

we need to build a wall to keep that sea breeze out ;-)

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, whats the record for max SST in our area?

I recall seeing 85 degree SST off the Jersey Shore in July 1993, never saw anything that high again.

 

I believe the 81° at the buoy south of Fire Island is right at the record. I can remember many years growing up when the warmest for the whole season would be around 75°. 

20 S Fire Island 2150               81 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

I believe the 81° at the buoy south of Fire Island is right at the record. I can remember many years growing up when the warmest for the whole season would be around 75°. 

20 S Fire Island 2150               81 

Thanks, how far back do the records go?  Do you have anything for 1993?

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, how far back do the records go?  Do you have anything for 1993?

 

You would really have to search for that. I just remember the old NOAA Weather Radio hourly updates with the marine reports. 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

[dWave]

High was 97, humidty not terrible and a strong breeze made it hot but manageable. Now, return of the dew. 93/71.  5th time 95+

[dmillz25]

97 for the high here

[SACRUS]

7/27

LGA: 97
EWR: 96
ISP: 95
TEB: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 95
ACY: 94
TTN: 94
JFK: 94
NYC: 93
New Brnswck: 93

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe the 81° at the buoy south of Fire Island is right at the record. I can remember many years growing up when the warmest for the whole season would be around 75°. 

20 S Fire Island 2150               81 

In a decade or so we'll probably have some legit home grown TS or even hurricanes nearby. 

A July TS like Fay for us was highly unusual.

[SACRUS]

Storms and bank of clouds moving into W-PA some scattered storms jumping ahead of the line into C/E PA.  Timing of this line would be early Tue.  Perhaps clouds and storms may muddy up 90s tomorrow.  Will see if the storms hold.

[SACRUS]

2016 warm water article, that also references 2011

https://www.nj.com/weather/2016/08/nj_ocean_temperature_heats_up_to_record_level.html

 

 

https://pressofatlanticcity.com/news/why-the-water-off-the-jersey-shore-is-the-warmest-its-ever-been/article_489d6142-5fbb-11e6-9b89-f7d4137d245a.html

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 97 here.

Current temp 89/DP 70/RH 54%

[donsutherland1]

Readings rose into the middle 90s across many parts of the region.

At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 81°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 79°, which was set in 1995. LaGuardia Airport would also see 2 consecutive 80° or above daily minimum temperatures for the first time since July 20-21, 2019.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 15 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 32 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 7 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 17 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 22 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 5 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 9 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 21 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 13 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 19 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 23 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 34 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow could again see the temperature rise into the middle and perhaps upper 90s across the region. Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon or evening. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal.

Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.5°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.4°-82.8° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was +1.11.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.941.

On July 26, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.765 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.950.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 57 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.

Finally, based on historic data and the current Arctic sea ice extent figure, it is very likely that the 2020 minimum extent will come out under 4.0 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and only the third time on record. There is an implied 50% probability of a minimum extent figure under 3.5 million square kilometers. There is an implied 35% probability that 2020 will set a new record low minimum extent figure.