July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[lee59]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower 90s across much of the region. A few locations reached the middle 90s.

At LaGuardia Airport, the morning minimum temperature was 80°. If that figure holds up tonight, that would surpass the daily record high minimum record of 78°, which was set in 1995.

Tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday, temperatures could rise in the middle and upper 90s across the region. Some locations from Washington, DC to New York City's LaGuardia Airport could approach or reach 100°. Somewhat cooler conditions should follow, but readings will likely remain several degrees above normal.

Through today, New York City's LaGuardia Airport has a monthly mean temperature of 82.3°. July will likely end with a mean temperature between 82.3°-82.7° there. That would make July 2020 that station's second warmest month on record. July 2010, with a mean temperature of 82.8°, is LaGuardia's warmest month on record.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.766.

On July 25, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.963 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.852.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 56 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.8°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July remains near 50%.

Based on the latest guidance, including the EPS weekly forecasts and the CFSv2 monthly forecast, August will likely be warmer than normal across the region. However, August will likely have a smaller warm anomaly than July.

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.995 million square kilometers yesterday. That is the earliest date on record on which Arctic sea ice extent was less than 6 million square kilometers. The previous record was set on July 30, 2019 when Arctic sea ice extent fell to 5.998 million square kilometers.

 

With all the talk about hot temperatures and arctic sea ice melting, just to cool things off, the current temperature at the South Pole is -68 and wind chill -100.

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

My wife and I were just commenting on that sky, looked great.

[JustinRP37]

30 minutes ago, lee59 said:

With all the talk about hot temperatures and arctic sea ice melting, just to cool things off, the current temperature at the South Pole is -68 and wind chill -100.

That is about right on target for the time of year for the South Pole. Normally the coldest month of the year is September with an average high of -63F and an average low of -78. Warmest is January with a high of -9F and low of -19F. I think that may be too cold even for the extreme winter lovers of this forum. 

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Don't worry come December it will be in 4/5/6 for winter.

 

That would be cruel.

[donsutherland1]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wonderful colors.

[dWave]

88 dew 64, after high/low of 95/78.

[SACRUS]

7/26

LGA: 95
EWR: 94
PHL: 94
JFK: 93
TEB: 93
ACY: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 93
NYC: 92
New Brnswck: 92
ISP: 90

[SACRUS]

For reference record highs.  Most look safe but with enough sunshine could do it... JFK, LGA, EWR

7/27

JFK: 97   (1963)
ISP: 94    (1999)
LGA: 100 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1963)
EWR: 101 (2005)
New Brnswck: 99 (1999)
TTN: 98 (1940)
PHL: 100 (194)   

[SACRUS]

JULY

90(+) days last 10 years.  2020 will be at or in top 3 of last 10 years of 90 degree days.

 

EWR:
2020 (so far): 13
2019: 14
2018: 9
2017: 9 
2016: 16
2015: 13
2014: 8
2013: 15
2012: 16
2011: 22 
2010: 21

 

LGA:

2020 (so far): 15
2019: 14
2018: 10
2017: 8
2016: 15
2015: 6
2014: 3
2013: 15
2012: 13
2011: 13
2010: 18

[weathermedic]

87/68 with a light westerly breeze at my station at 9:50 pm.

[SACRUS]

Rockies Ridge, Trough into the MW/GL and WAR close by / expanding west at times keeping EC warm to hot.  Warm/wet opening to August.  Tropics could add to recent excess rainfalls.

 

[SACRUS]

10PM

LGA: 91
EWR: 86
NYC: 85
TEB: 83
JFK: 82

[lee59]

LaGuardia seems to be in world of its own. Maybe there is too many jet engines to close to the weather station.

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 94 here.

Current temp 80/DP 67/RH 65%

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of July are averaging 87degs., or 9.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.0[79.5].         July should end at  +4.0[80.5].

77*(67%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.     Just 79* by 9am.        83* by 10am.        87* by 11am.

 

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone here at American Weather.  No topic start this morning.

Hot it is as described by others elsewhere in this thread. Heat wave interrupted either tomorrow or Wednesday in some places, but in others of the non-marine influenced, non shower influenced, it continues through at least Wednesday. Max T I think is 97 around NYC. HI tomorrow should get to 100, except 100-104 on eastern LI? Least chance for a HI of 100 is se NYS where thunderstorms may interrupt. 

Convection: Small chance of a shower or thunderstorm later tonight in se NYS/extreme nw NJ.  Tuesday: SPC D2 marginal continues.  Just don't like the trough so nearby for assured afternoon SVR.  I could see a few SVR issuances in se NYS/CT midday and then further s during the afternoon but in my mind this is not a lock for SVR occurrence. Thunder yes... SVR - more than couple?  FF... not enough certainty in my mind for 2-4" pockets of FF either Tuesday afternoon, or the convergence setup-for I80-LI-s CT southward during Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. I think the potential exists but modeling is not giving me enough information to increase my confidence. So prefer no topic, at least not from myself,   if all this is potentially more or less routine showers and thunderstorms.  Will reevaluate late today and tomorrow morning. 

ISAIAS: will post about six 00z/27 graphics ~715A, only on the Tropic page.  The interactions on what should be an Atlantic recurvature could bring us quite a bit of rain in a band somewhere in our area next week, even if it develops into a storm and passes well out to sea to our east-southeast, with mainly Rip Current impact. I think this continues to be worth monitoring, not for a direct impact of wind, but indirect influence on moisture convergence well to the west northwest of the system. More on this in the future if it continues of interest to me.  630A/27

[bluewave]

A top 5 warmest summer so far at many stations across the region. Numerous temperature departures  in the +3 to +4 range since June 1st. Just shows how cooler patterns like April and May don’t have lasting power anymore.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, lee59 said:

LaGuardia seems to be in world of its own. Maybe there is too many jet engines to close to the weather station.

It’s the heart of NYC’s heat island. Even during night hours when there is little or no flight activity, it is often the warmest station in the City during summer. 

[psv88]

LGA low was 81, already 88. 

88 here now off a low of 70, 87 at FRG, 86 at FOK

ISP is 84, much lower than surrounding areas, something off with the sensor

[dWave]

87/65 here, low was 79.

[SACRUS]

85/68 at 9:30.  NE to SW almost circular rotation to the clouds but overall winds out of the SW/WSW.  Hottest day of the year (so far) look on tap today. 850s are peaking this pm and evening to near 21 - 22C.  Lots of 95(+) and possible 100 near LGA / EWR metro locations.  Looks hot and humid Tue but storms may e present by the early afternoon or later PM.  With enough sun some places will exceed the 95(+) range especially with a high launch pad.  May see some lows at record highest minimums for dailys or  greater.  Thu and Fri now look to be in the low 90s, ECM spikes 850s Thu near >18C.  Weekend looks closer to noraml may sneak in some 90 / low 90s in the hot spots NE-NJ/LGA etc.

Beyond there.  warm (to hot at times) and wet pattern as WAR keeps east cast above normal with higher heights but US ridge back west to the Rockies creating trough into the Midwest and weakness and fronts that could be close by or get hung up.  ECM does have another day or two of strong heat on Aug 2 - Aug 4th ahead of front.  Need to watch the Tropics as WAR will be pulsing west at time but any storm could find weakness and push towards the EC otherwise FL/GOM threat.

[Rjay]

90

[uncle W]

87 after a low of 74...

[Rjay]

FRG 91

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s the heart of NYC’s heat island. Even during night hours when there is little or no flight activity, it is often the warmest station in the City during summer. 

a sw wind comes over Brooklyn and Queens which is a large heat island...it does represent that part of the city...the wind direction has a lot to say about any local city weather station...where I live in Staten Island it gets as hot as any station with winds from the west to the north...

[uofmiami]

87 in Syosset & Muttontown currently. 

[psv88]

94/71 now...

[Rjay]

Even Wantagh mesonet is 90 with a west wind.  

[dmillz25]

Up to 89 here

[mjr]

On ‎7‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 7:05 PM, dWave said:

Yeah NYC has been (barely) humid subtropical for a while now. NYT probably worded it like that because it makes for a more attention grabbing headline. The substance of article is legitimate, but the headline is a little marketing spin. But it worked, it featured on sites like Gothmaist now.

I am surprised that the misleading and distorted description "subtropical" is still in use for the Cfa climate category. Something like humid warm temperate would make more sense. Anyway, as you said, it served the Times' purpose and probably elicited a lot of "You must be kidding" responses from people for whom "subtropical" evokes images of Orlando, New Orleans or Houston. Actually those three locations are in the same Cfa climate zone as NYC. However, if one uses 32F as a northern boundary, Yonkers is not. I realize that the line has to be drawn somewhere and in my opinion the problem is that there are not enough "lines". Given the steep temperature gradient along the east coast during the colder months one can easily make the argument that there should be a different zone every few hundred miles, not one huge zone from central FL to NYC. There are other alternative classifications and climate maps that try to do this. The crepe myrtle and sweet magnolia may be happy here, and I wish them all the best, but IMHO putting NYC and Orlando into the same zone is just absurd.

As an aside, when I was 7 or 8 years old my parents bought me Encyclopedia Brittanica. Like every normal kid, the first sections that I turned to were Weather and Climate. There, staring me in the face was a Koppen climate classification map that had NYC solidly in the colder Dfa climate zone. I remember getting a pencil, erasing the offending boundary line and redrawing it north of NYC.