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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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For reference record highs.  Most look safe but with enough sunshine could do it... JFK, LGA, EWR

7/27

JFK: 97   (1963)
ISP: 94    (1999)
LGA: 100 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1963)
EWR: 101 (2005)
New Brnswck: 99 (1999)
TTN: 98 (1940)
PHL: 100 (194)   

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JULY

90(+) days last 10 years.  2020 will be at or in top 3 of last 10 years of 90 degree days.

 

EWR:
2020 (so far): 13
2019: 14
2018: 9
2017: 9 
2016: 16
2015: 13
2014: 8
2013: 15
2012: 16
2011: 22 
2010: 21

 

LGA:

2020 (so far): 15
2019: 14
2018: 10
2017: 8
2016: 15
2015: 6
2014: 3
2013: 15
2012: 13
2011: 13
2010: 18

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The last 5 days of July are averaging 87degs., or 9.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +3.0[79.5].         July should end at  +4.0[80.5].

77*(67%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.     Just 79* by 9am.        83* by 10am.        87* by 11am.

 

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Good Monday morning everyone here at American Weather.  No topic start this morning.

Hot it is as described by others elsewhere in this thread. Heat wave interrupted either tomorrow or Wednesday in some places, but in others of the non-marine influenced, non shower influenced, it continues through at least Wednesday. Max T I think is 97 around NYC. HI tomorrow should get to 100, except 100-104 on eastern LI? Least chance for a HI of 100 is se NYS where thunderstorms may interrupt. 

Convection: Small chance of a shower or thunderstorm later tonight in se NYS/extreme nw NJ.  Tuesday: SPC D2 marginal continues.  Just don't like the trough so nearby for assured afternoon SVR.  I could see a few SVR issuances in se NYS/CT midday and then further s during the afternoon but in my mind this is not a lock for SVR occurrence. Thunder yes... SVR - more than couple?  FF... not enough certainty in my mind for 2-4" pockets of FF either Tuesday afternoon, or the convergence setup-for I80-LI-s CT southward during Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. I think the potential exists but modeling is not giving me enough information to increase my confidence. So prefer no topic, at least not from myself,   if all this is potentially more or less routine showers and thunderstorms.  Will reevaluate late today and tomorrow morning. 

ISAIAS: will post about six 00z/27 graphics ~715A, only on the Tropic page.  The interactions on what should be an Atlantic recurvature could bring us quite a bit of rain in a band somewhere in our area next week, even if it develops into a storm and passes well out to sea to our east-southeast, with mainly Rip Current impact. I think this continues to be worth monitoring, not for a direct impact of wind, but indirect influence on moisture convergence well to the west northwest of the system. More on this in the future if it continues of interest to me.  630A/27

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A top 5 warmest summer so far at many stations across the region. Numerous temperature departures  in the +3 to +4 range since June 1st. Just shows how cooler patterns like April and May don’t have lasting power anymore.

 

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8 hours ago, lee59 said:

LaGuardia seems to be in world of its own. Maybe there is too many jet engines to close to the weather station. :)

It’s the heart of NYC’s heat island. Even during night hours when there is little or no flight activity, it is often the warmest station in the City during summer. 

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85/68 at 9:30.  NE to SW almost circular rotation to the clouds but overall winds out of the SW/WSW.  Hottest day of the year (so far) look on tap today. 850s are peaking this pm and evening to near 21 - 22C.  Lots of 95(+) and possible 100 near LGA / EWR metro locations.  Looks hot and humid Tue but storms may e present by the early afternoon or later PM.  With enough sun some places will exceed the 95(+) range especially with a high launch pad.  May see some lows at record highest minimums for dailys or  greater.  Thu and Fri now look to be in the low 90s, ECM spikes 850s Thu near >18C.  Weekend looks closer to noraml may sneak in some 90 / low 90s in the hot spots NE-NJ/LGA etc.

Beyond there.  warm (to hot at times) and wet pattern as WAR keeps east cast above normal with higher heights but US ridge back west to the Rockies creating trough into the Midwest and weakness and fronts that could be close by or get hung up.  ECM does have another day or two of strong heat on Aug 2 - Aug 4th ahead of front.  Need to watch the Tropics as WAR will be pulsing west at time but any storm could find weakness and push towards the EC otherwise FL/GOM threat.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s the heart of NYC’s heat island. Even during night hours when there is little or no flight activity, it is often the warmest station in the City during summer. 

a sw wind comes over Brooklyn and Queens which is a large heat island...it does represent that part of the city...the wind direction has a lot to say about any local city weather station...where I live in Staten Island it gets as hot as any station with winds from the west to the north...

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On ‎7‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 7:05 PM, dWave said:

Yeah NYC has been (barely) humid subtropical for a while now. NYT probably worded it like that because it makes for a more attention grabbing headline. The substance of article is legitimate, but the headline is a little marketing spin. But it worked, it featured on sites like Gothmaist now.

I am surprised that the misleading and distorted description "subtropical" is still in use for the Cfa climate category. Something like humid warm temperate would make more sense. Anyway, as you said, it served the Times' purpose and probably elicited a lot of "You must be kidding" responses from people for whom "subtropical" evokes images of Orlando, New Orleans or Houston. Actually those three locations are in the same Cfa climate zone as NYC. However, if one uses 32F as a northern boundary, Yonkers is not. I realize that the line has to be drawn somewhere and in my opinion the problem is that there are not enough "lines". Given the steep temperature gradient along the east coast during the colder months one can easily make the argument that there should be a different zone every few hundred miles, not one huge zone from central FL to NYC. There are other alternative classifications and climate maps that try to do this. The crepe myrtle and sweet magnolia may be happy here, and I wish them all the best, but IMHO putting NYC and Orlando into the same zone is just absurd.

As an aside, when I was 7 or 8 years old my parents bought me Encyclopedia Brittanica. Like every normal kid, the first sections that I turned to were Weather and Climate. There, staring me in the face was a Koppen climate classification map that had NYC solidly in the colder Dfa climate zone. I remember getting a pencil, erasing the offending boundary line and redrawing it north of NYC.

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