SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 A majority of Today's 12z guidance has a tropical storm near the SE/Carolinas around Aug 3rd. Way out there but with the WAR building west - how west will determine if any tropical system is an EC or FL/GOM track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 1 hour ago, etudiant said: It would be useful to show a growth zone map from 1950 vs the same today. Certainly NYC has become Virginia climate wise, although I have no idea whether places further north such as Watertown or Syracuse have warmed comparably. Has Virginia become more like Florida during this same interval? We commonly see birds in NYC today that would have been very unusual in 1950, obvious birds such as Cardinals. So nature is reacting to the changes, perhaps faster than the academicians. Virginia has quite a variation from north to south. Areas of northern Virginia, such as Dulles airport, have always been fairly close to NYC temperatures, at least in the colder months. The summer months down there are hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, SACRUS said: A majority of Today's 12z guidance has a tropical storm near the SE/Carolinas around Aug 3rd. Way out there but with the WAR building west - how west will determine if any tropical system is an EC or FL/GOM track. Definitely something to watch next week as it treks W towards the islands and perhaps East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: LGA represents the five boroughs outside of marine influences well Yep. LGA still probably too cool to represent Bronx, northern Manhattan, central queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 Current temp is still 81/DP 74/RH 78% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 The last 6 days of July are averaging 86degs., or 8.5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[79.3]. July should end at +4.0[80.6]. HI today should be > 95, say 93*+T & 40%+ RH.------maybe > 103 tomorrow. An aside: Will NYC have another Hurricane Belle -1976, timing looks similar. 75*(97%RH) here at 6am, dirty sky. 79*(92%RH) by 9am. 84*(79%RH) by Noon. 85* by 12:30pm. 87* by 1:30pm. 88*(56%RH) at 2pm. 89* by 2:10pm. 90*(50%RH) at 2:30pm. 91*(46%RH) at 3pm. 92*(45%RH) at 4pm. Reached 94* during 5pm-6pm time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Good Sunday morning American Weather! The following is based on 00z/26 model suggestions of concern. Holding off on two topics this morning... Tue-Wed July 28-29 potential few SVR-maybe more so a FF situation, and ISAIAS for Aug 2-6 some sort of impact eastern USA-the latter would like to see the EC operational on-board. HEAT WAVE in progress and probably maximizes Mon-Tue with non-marine influenced max temps near 97F. HI seems destined to be near 100, especially Tue when again a few readings possibly near 103-even eastern LI? Heat Wave probably breaks Wed (clouds), or Thursday when its just a little cooler aloft. Topic consideration 1: Tuesday: SPC D3 has marginal risk. Potential exists, still don't like the trough so nearby to generate here, but can't deny ingredients-marginal winds aloft, but large PWAT-KI, decent CAPE all in place. Tuesday night or Wednesday: Modeling is hinting at eruption of heavy rains again, for LI and parts of NJ, maybe even s CT as weak convergence at the surface along the front (looking for a light north wind again north of the front at night to get this going), plus the 850 trough-vorticity modeled near I80 with PWAT ~2" and continued decent CAPE-KI could allow for 3-4" rains in any bands of heavy convection that fire during the night Tuesday or Wednesday. I am committed to the potential per recent several forecast cycles of modeling but location location location. (caution:UK doesn't have this yet like it did 24 hours in advance for the Thursday night event, so still uncertain) Topic consideration 2: Aug 2-6 (next week): Eventual ISAIAS? Not a lock yet. A definite weakness in what continues to be a repetitive reformation of an eastern USA trough next week should allow whatever forms in the Atlantic to make a run at the USA, be it a close call recurvature out to sea off the eastern USA seaboard or into the GMEX. Lot's of interesting possibilities, especially when looking at the jet stream configuration. I didn't want to quite yet start this as a Tropical Topic but await 12z runs/NHC outlooks etc. Right now---NHC has this as a 90% chance of formation in the Atlantic Basin. I have the August 2 500mb wind fields. GEFS showing the storm and RRQ potential. The EC EPS has the event further south toward FL but also eastern USA weakness. The GEFS ensembles show quite a few members making a northward run next week... but is this accurate? Don't know. It's 8-12 days out. I added the EPS and GEFS idea of tracking whatever is out there. So certainly of interest... but where and what? I do think this has a chance to add some moisture up here. This discussion will add to the tropical section once we have a little more global modeling consensus. 649A/26 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: probably why places like ewr have been able to hit 90 behind the sea breeze. it's like being in north carolina It also looks like the warmer SSTs are helping FRG go for the July 90° day record. The only other year since the records began in 2000 to reach 10 days was 2010. That had much more westerly flow compared to all the onshore flow this July. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 11 0 2 2020 10 6 3 2011 9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Morning low of 80 degrees at LGA. If that winds up the daily minimum temperature, it will surpass the existing record high minimum of 78 degrees, which was set in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 My last on eventual ISAIAS on this NYC forum. Have transferred this to Tropic. I didn't realize the invest topic had been started there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Tropics this morning. 83/76 here feels like Jamaica. The heat is on and temps will challenge this past Mon-Tue as guidance continues to forecast a push of 850MB temps 22-23C Monday PM through Tue PM. That should translate into many 97- 101s under mostly sunny conditions. Clouds and recent heavy rains the only factors that may halt any triple digits in the hot spots NE/C-NJ / LGA metro. Front triggers some widespread storms - looking at timing later TUesday. Well have to see what debirs clouds and storms linger into Wed which may cause a break in the 90s, otherwise Wed should get into the 90s. Thu (7/30) - Sat(Aug 1) now looking much warmer on guidance and should see temps at or above 90 for much the area. Warm and wet. Beyond there the tropics will need to be watched. As WAR is nearby and retrograding west in the next week to 10 days. This should keep heights higher along the east coast with nearby trough into the GL/OV is the ridge moves back towards the Rockies for a period. We'll see if it trends less cool but guidance has D8- 10 cooldown to near or below normal. 8/2-4/ . By the second week of August the ridge is on the move east again into the Plains and Midwest and strong heat looks to again eject east in that time-frame. Timing the WAR expansion could again trigger a strong heat spike in that 8/6 - 8/14 time-frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 9AM Roundup LGA: 85/69 ACY: 84/75 EWR: 83/73 TEB: 83/71 ISP: 82/75 JFK: 82/74 New Brnswck: 82/75 PHL: 80/76 BLM: 80/79 NYC: 80/73 TTN: 80/76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 We did notice the LGA summer temperature departures pick up in 2016 relative to EWR and JFK. It’s interesting that there was a similar increase at BDR. Both stations have been tracking pretty closely since the super El Niño in 2016. They are our closest stations to the Long Island Sound. Maybe a result of the warmer SSTs on the sound and record dew point regime since the super El Niño. Could also be a local response to general circulation and temperature changes since then. LGA and BDR temperature departures for July and August since 2016 LGA......JUL....AUG 2016....+3.7....+5.3 2017....+0.7....-0.9 2018...+2.4....+4.7 2019....+4.1...+1.3 2020...+4.8 BDR....JUL....AUG 2016...+3.2...+5.1 2017...+0.9....-0.4 2018...+1.8....+4.6 2019...+4.0....+1.1 2020....+3.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Wow, you guys are talking about high minimums and here it was one of the nicest mornings in a while. Just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Wow, you guys are talking about high minimums and here it was one of the nicest mornings in a while. Just beautiful. Low of 75° here on the South Shore with a return of the Miami dew points to 76° . SSTs are already around 80° at just 10 am. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1350 76 220/ 8/ 8 1016.1 2/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1350 79 240/ 14/ 16 1016.3 3/ 4 Great South Bay 1330 78 240/ 12/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1350 74 72 250/ 8/ 10 1016.5 3/ 5 15 E Barnegat Li 1326 80 N/A 2/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 It is the hottest time of the year and we are in a heatwave. At least my pool temperature is warm, it won't be long until it's to cool to go in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 10AM Roundup TEB: 87/70 LGA: 87/67 ACY: 87/75 ISP: 86/72 EWR: 86/71 New Brnswck: 86/75 JFK: 84/76 TTN: 84/75 PHL: 83/76 BLM: 83/80 NYC: 83/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 BLM, Belmar with 80 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 11AM Roundup LGA: 90/63 ACY: 90/75 EWR: 89/67 TEB: 89/65 ISP: 88/75 New Brnswck: 88/75 BLM: 87/78 NYC: 86/68 PHL: 86/76 TTN: 86/73 JFK: 84/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 90/72 (HI 97) here, dews actually lower than most of the area for a change and you can feel it. The previous heat wave was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Drier/lower dewpoint working south the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 91/70 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 as a kid i remember hot summer days with widespread severe storms followed by temps in the 80's with a stiff nw breeze the next day. it feels like that type of progression has all but disappeared 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: as a kid i remember hot summer days with widespread severe storms followed by temps in the 80's with a stiff nw breeze the next day. it feels like that type of progression has all but disappeared Maybe next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Dewpoint down to 64. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: as a kid i remember hot summer days with widespread severe storms followed by temps in the 80's with a stiff nw breeze the next day. it feels like that type of progression has all but disappeared Welcome to my world. It happened here 2-3 years earlier despite the small difference in latitude. Anybody who cares about meteorology knows the truth. The old climate is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 89/76 underneath the sea breeze boundary. The sea breeze doesn’t even do much tbh, it drops the temp like 2 degrees and raises the dew point roughly 4-5 degrees, making it feel slightly hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cfa said: 89/76 underneath the sea breeze boundary. The sea breeze doesn’t even do much tbh, it drops the temp like 2 degrees and raises the dew point roughly 4-5 degrees, making it feel slightly hotter. Hit 93 earlier. 91/73/101 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 92/72 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 36 minutes ago, forkyfork said: as a kid i remember hot summer days with widespread severe storms followed by temps in the 80's with a stiff nw breeze the next day. it feels like that type of progression has all but disappeared I remember squall lines (haven’t heard that term in ages), with severe thunderstorm watch boxes stretching from New England to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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