forkyfork Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, SACRUS said: clouds in PA to about Harrisburg, some burn off too. Think we are partly sunny through 1:30 for most. Should get most places to another 90. Time will tell. newark's a degree warmer than yesterday at this time with less SE influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Just now, SACRUS said: 89/73 here partly sunny and very steamy. 87/77 HI 99 The numbers might not show it, but It feels worse to me than those days with a heat advisory. That humidity where everyone walking outside looks likes zombies. Also could be the cumulative effect of day after day heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, dWave said: 87/77 HI 99 The numbers might not show it, but It feels worse to me than those days with a heat advisory. That humidity where everyone walking outside looks likes zombies. Also could be the cumulative effect of day after day heat. 87/77 here too. This is a cooler version of what much of Long Island felt like during those heat advisory days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, Cfa said: 87/77 here too. This is a cooler version of what much of Long Island felt like during those heat advisory days. ISP getting close to its first 70° average dew point July. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Noon roundup BLM: 91/74 New Brnswk: 90/73 ACY: 89/74 TEB: 89/73 EWR: 89 / 73 TTN: 88 /72 PHL: 88/71 LGA: 87 / 73 JFK: 85 / 73 ISP: 84 / 75 NYC: 84/ 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, forkyfork said: newark's a degree warmer than yesterday at this time with less SE influence Yes - so far should beat 91 the next ob at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 more sun last hr but very hazy 90/76 HI 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 92°/73° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: ISP getting close to its first 70° average dew point July. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png I’m actually surprised it hasn’t already. These high dew summers have really started to feel normal, the 2010’s really stand out on that graph. More evidence of a transition to a more subtropical climate. A bit of an apples to oranges comparison but my PWS is averaging 70.5 so far this month in an area with much more vegetation than ISP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1PM Update: New Brnswck: 91 BLM: 91 EWR: 90 ACY: 90 NYC: 89 JFK: 89 TTN: 89 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if we could get access to this... https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper261494.html Monday, 5 January 2015: 1:30 PM 225AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings) Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB) The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently developed an experimental suite of station-based, Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. To date, guidance for temperature, dewpoint, wind speed and direction, sky cover, probability of precipitation, and precipitation type has been developed. One element that is important to aviation interests and public safety is thunderstorms. This paper describes the development of a MOS thunderstorm system for the ECMWF model and its performance when compared to climatology and corresponding MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models. Equations for the probability of a thunderstorm and the conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm for 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods were developed over the CONUS from six years of ECWMF model output. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and severe weather reports collected by the Office of Climate Water and Weather Services (OCWWS) were used to define the predictand. Results from a k-fold cross-validation test indicate the new ECMWF thunderstorm guidance is superior to corresponding GFS MOS and NAM MOS forecasts, and in some cases, forecast skill and good reliability are achieved out as far as 240 hours in advance. This guidance will be incorporated into the experimental short-range and extended-range ECMWF MOS text bulletins which are restricted to NOAA/NWS use only, and will also be available to NWS forecasters in gridded format as part of an experimental ECMWF gridded MOS suite. Very helpful to know gentlemen... I tried the link provided this morning, a couple of days ago and no luck. So, am glad it just wasn't my own operator error. That said...also helpful to know NBE performance and... good thing that it improved on MEX because we're in a statistically persistent pattern of warmer than climate normal. I'd be really disturbed if NBE didn't improve on MEX. Also, had seen EC MOS in its more primative non gridded stage prior to March 2018 retirement, within NWS. Sharing International model guidance is relationships, benefits to countries etc. NWS I think incorporates the MOS into some of their products, if forecasters elect to init with the base blended statistical data. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 45 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Yes - so far should beat 91 the next ob at 1 up to 93. maybe 95+ today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: up to 93. maybe 95+ today? Only inhibitor would be clouds working in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Disgusting again today-91/77/105 at my closest station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 88/78/101 here, high so far is 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 heat advisory criteria being met. hello okx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 2PM Roundup BLM: 94 EWR: 93 LGA: 93 New Brnswk: 93 ACY: 92 NYC: 91 TTN: 90 TEB: 90 PHL: 90 JFK: 89 ISP: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 50 minutes ago, forkyfork said: up to 93. maybe 95+ today? 94 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 JFK: 90 interhour 11AM ISP: 87 max so fa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 90/77/102. Heat wave made it to day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Storm in NW-NJ and activity in E-C PA pushing east arrival near 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 93/75/105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, Cfa said: 90/77/102. Heat wave made it to day 5. 91/76/103 here, high of 92. Heat wave baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 93/74 here HI of - super sweaty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: heat advisory criteria being met. hello okx Heat Advisory issued for tomorrow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 First rain since Fay (Jul 10) for a bunch of the area in the next 2 hours and this evening. Cloud deck should put the lid on any more heating and storms will subsequently follow. Overall felt like the hottest day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Rumbles approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 93/74/104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 A few supercells on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 Current temp 94/DP 75/RH 54% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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