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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The GFS for the next 16 days has so many 90's you need a Four Year College Degree to count that high.          Almost no Rain to go with it.       They belong together anyhow.

Puts the remainder of July [11 days] at 80/97 = 88.5 or +10.5.

95* (42%RH) Heat Index =100* here at 5pm.

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97° was the highest temperature around the area last 2 days at LGA. So we continue the pattern of the warmest July temperatures coming around the 20th. It  will be interesting to see if next week can beat 97°for a late monthly max.

 

Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010


7-19/20-20.....97

7-21-19........100

7-1-18...........98

7-20-17.........98

7-23/25-16...99

7-19-15.........98

7-2-14...........96

7-18-13........101

7-18-12........104

7-22-11........108

7-6-10..........103

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS for the next 16 days has so many 90's you need a Four Year College Degree to count that high.          Almost no Rain to go with it.       They belong together anyhow.

Puts the remainder of July [11 days] at 80/97 = 88.5 or +10.5.

95* (42%RH) Heat Index =100* here at 5pm.

Sat/Sun looks like a break with onshore (not sure if Sun stays with the Easterly flow) before strong heat is likely Mon - Wed next week.  Beyond there could get a little relief before more heat unloads east.

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Today was another scorcher in many parts of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 93°
Baltimore: 100°
Boston: 93°
Burlington: 91°
Harrisburg: 98°
Hartford: 96°
Islip: 93
New York City-JFK: 96°
New York City-LGA: 97° (morning low temperature: 84°)
New York City-NYC: 93°
Newark: 96°
Philadelphia: 96°
Washington, DC: 99°

With its third consecutive 90° day, New York City's Central Park recorded its first heat wave of summer 2020.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 20):

Albany: 12 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 11 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 26 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 4 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 15 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 16 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 2 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 15 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 9 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 13 (2019: 27 days)
Philadelphia: 18 (2019: 35 days)
Washington, DC: 28 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 11 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 10 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Starting tomorrow, the excessive heat will begin to ease. Nevertheless, warmer than normal conditions will persist.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was +4.12.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.962.

On July 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.224.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 50 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.7°. The probability of an 80° mean temperature in July has increased in recent days to just under 50%.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 87degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.7[79.1].           Should be about  +4.5[81.4] by the 29th.

For reference:     Normal July  76.5      No. 1   81.4       No. 10    79.6

82*(53%RH) here at 6am, scattered cirrus.        84* at 8:00am but back to 82* by 10:00am.         Still 82*(61%RH) Heat Index = 85* by Noon.      Was on beach from 1pm-4pm, was mostly 83*-84*, but reached 86*(65%RH) by 4pm.

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Looking back the past two days... looks like 97 was the good non-marine influenced max T for the 19th-20th.  Even though the HI made it up to near 103-104 in Toms River and possibly parts of LI, overall, I think the max HI was closer to ~100 .. and so from my perspective yesterday-Monday the 20th, did not quite live up to the intense heat  that was suggested in some of the modeling (trough too close and so some afternoon lowering of the TD near the city on a westerly surface wind). 

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