donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 In parts of the region, today was the hottest day so far this season. High temperatures included: Albany: 93° Baltimore: 100° Boston: 95° Burlington: 95° Harrisburg: 100° Hartford: 99° New York City: 94° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 99° 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 19): Albany: 11 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 10 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 25 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 3 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 14 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 15 (2019: 33 days) Islip: 1 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 4 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 14 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 8 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 12 (2019: 27 days) Philadelphia: 17 (2019: 35 days) Washington, DC: 27 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 10 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 9 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will again see temperatures reach the middle and upper 90s in parts of the region. Areas running from central Pennsylvania to Washington, DC could again see the temperature reach or even exceed 100° in some locations. Afterward, the excessive heat will ease, but warmer than normal conditions will persist. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was -1.79. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.103. On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1at an amplitude of 1.231 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.073. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 49 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5°. Finally, on July 18, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.551 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 18. The previous record was 7.059 million square kilometers, which was set in 2011. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 ISP only hit 88......lol thisisn’tfunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 97/72 temp split today...still 87° at this hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 70° minimums have been more impressive than 90° maximums at JFK since the record dew point surge began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 6 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 7 1984 46 0 8 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 9 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 10 2011 39 0 - 1969 39 0 11 2019 38 0 - 1961 38 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 It may not affect JFK as much but as NYC keeps growing with bigger and higher skyscrapers, I'm sure the maximum night temperatures will be higher. Heat island affect is so prevalent on nights like tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 78 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 86/75 heat index 93. Not much of a breeze anymore. Driving around, about 30% of the traffic are out. I don't know of any power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: ISP only hit 88......lol thisisn’tfunny. What a joke. I think I have 6 90 degree days on the year now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Very warm night out there. Current temp 82/DP 72/RH 70% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Current temp 81/DP 76/RH 84% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Pretty impressive my station still 80° at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Great launch pad temps this morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Brutal dewpoints across the region this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Euro says we do this again next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 With the launch pad high this morning most places should be at 90 or above between 10-11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 85degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[78.7]. Should be about +3.7[80.6] by the 28th. Hey! even the EURO is hotter than a picnic charcoal for the next 10 days. 80*(92%RH) HeatIndex=87* here at 6am, scattered cirrus. 83*(86%RH) at 9am, Heat Index=93*. 86(72%RH)Heat Index=96* at 10am. 87*(65%RH)Heat Index=96* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Brutal overnight/am...83, dew 77 heat index 91. low temp 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 8 hours ago, psv88 said: What a joke. I think I have 6 90 degree days on the year now Yesterday was my 10th, 4 in June and 6 in July so far. 78/77 here currently, low was 76, warmest so far this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 83 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Wantage NJ .02 in a brief heavy shower around 215A. 75/74 as of 638A..small patches of blue sky seen through deck of AC. Updating the outlook from previous mornings. Wednesday: Please see SPC D3 marginal risk for our area. Wind fields stronger than those of late yesterday and today, and much more CAPE/KI will be place. Thursday: Convection still possible. Sat night-Sunday strong thunderstorm northwest flow event...may be delayed to Sun night-Monday? Looks potent for a quick moving complex somewhere through the northeast quad of the country. Monday-Wednesday: EC is bonkers on heat and usually overdone - subject to large error...but ring of fire convection possible (around the rim of the Great Lakes northward bulging ridge) -in other words, 1 or 2 northwest flow events possible if not mid level thermally capped. Uncertain but interesting. 648A/20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 ISP is the closet that our area has come to an 80° dew point this year. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 78 78 100 S3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 82/79 here....getting close. An official 80° DP at ISP would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 lots of clouds around this morning wasted a few hours of warming from the sun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, Cfa said: 82/79 here....getting close. An official 80° DP at ISP would be cool. Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Temps on the move upward this morning. Current temp 84/DP 77/RH 81% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png Wow. And it’s interesting how the dates are all similar, generally 7/18-7/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 85/80 now, heat index is 99. At 8:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 79 was my low. 86/78 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cfa said: 85/80 now, heat index is 99. At 8:30 AM. Same exact split here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 LGA low was 84. Wonder what the record warmest all time low is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: LGA low was 84. Wonder what the record warmest all time low is 86°F, on three separate occasions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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