wdrag Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Good morning American Weather! It's Friday. Patches of showers which had been on the wane between 4A-6A are now increasing a bit. In fact, I just clicked off .01 here in Wantage of nw NJ with radar not showing anything over me at 615A. So, it looks to me like this is mainly a morning shower event. I figure if some of us don't get anything this morning, not much can happen late today when the column has dried out at mid levels. The HRRR and couple of models are trying for a brief heavier southeastward moving shower or low top thunderstorm late this afternoon, especially east of the Hudson River, so I defer to that possibility but it doesn't look like much if anything to me. The future: Still hot and humid with model disagreement, especially Thursday the 23rd onward. Some of the heat numbers are little lower midweek, but that could be timing of showers-storms with time of day of the modeled temps. Thinking 90F begins Saturday away from waters influence and of course below 1000 feet elevation. Sunday looks like mid 90s to me. Could be 97F in a few spots but NYC/LI/S coast CT subject to the vagaries of the wind direction. Monday: I think this is a big convective afternoon 2P-9P, with capping (warm temp above 10C at 700MB, and/or warmer than -5C at 500MB) being a possible limiting factor. Otherwise, looks to me like a trough nearby as a lift mechanism with GFS modeled 6 to 6.5C mid lvl lapse rate (700-500MB - best of the work week when CAPE/KI/PWAT is in place). CAPE should easily exceed 2000J, PWAT 2.1, KI 38...activity shift s of I80 around sunset. May be the best chance for HI105 this week. Late Tuesday night? WAA showers/storms from se PA-s NJ develop northeastward?? Probably not occurring but WAA and keeping this in the back of mind. So far, WAA early mornings have not been very productive in my outlooks for thunderstorms (has just been a few showers). Wednesday afternoon-early night: Could be big for showers and thunderstorms with PWAT 2.2, 2000J and KI up to 38 in the evening. Next weekend: GFS nada, GGEM-EC say look for another 90+F day with potential for a period of big convection. ECMWF 500MB -4C capping might be a limiting factor. Something to monitor to see which model group performs better. In summary: am looking for a few SVR/FF in parts of our NYC forum Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/night with HI 105 Monday and max temps into the mid-upper 90s Sunday-Monday away from the waters influence. This based on the model science-pattern cues. 636A/17 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 85.5degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[78.2]. Should be +3.8[80.6] by the 25th. 71*(83%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 76*(92%RH) by Noon. Sun came out by 3:30pm, 83*(80%RH) by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Good thing we had the drought busting tropical storm last week (Nassau County) as we head into another hot dry period. To me it looks like the flow will be prohibitive for convection at the coast as we have seen time and time again this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 That unexpected rain this morning messed me all up. For only being .05" it thoroughly soaked everything back down and I'm not sure I want to go mt biking early like I planned. No wind isn't helping to dry it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Decent chance the Park doesn’t record a heat wave 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Wantage NJ, .06 so far this morning 6A-10A... model cued past few days for this morning per instability burst, PW bumping up to 1.8", Ki bumping up into the 30s with a burst of westerly wind near 850MB. FGEN/WAA. NAM3K has an idea of the generation from tropical tidbits lower dynamics section. Saw .3 in Wxunderground southern LI. Attached OKX Storm total radar analysis thru 11A today. Might be a little light in nw NJ but acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Long Island is on track for another top 5 highest average dew point July. This onshore flow pattern has kept the minimum temperature departures higher than the maximums. ISP has a max temperature departure of +1.7 and a min departure of +3.3. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Quick shower moved thru with 0.04". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Back to the higher dew points. Current temp 72/DP 69/RH 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: ah I see, I was thinking that JFK is more representative of coastal parts of NYC like southern Bklyn and southern Queens, and EWR is more representative of the other parts of the city. Both are better radiational coolers than either NYC or LGA. If we use a four location composite is the data still comparable to the four site composite prior to 1996 (before ASOS was used.) And would 2010 rank as our hottest summer (and hottest month) on record both by avg temp and by number of 90 degree days? Three warmest 4-Site Averages (JFK-LGA-NYC-EWR) for June-August: 1. 78.3, 2010 2. 77.4, 2016 3. 77.0, 2005 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Three warmest 4-Site Averages (JFK-LGA-NYC-EWR) for June-August: 1. 78.3, 2010 2. 77.4, 2016 3. 77.0, 2005 Don, that matches up really well with our climate division rankings. New York Climate Division 4 Average Temperature June-August https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2020 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 125 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This coming heatwave looks like a battle between the surging warmth and lingering onshore influence. Temperatures west of the sea breeze front should top out in the upper 90s to near 100°. S to SSE onshore flow with higher dew points and lower temperatures will be found to the east this weekend. Right on the edge of the sea breeze seem to be the most oppressive place to be, with minimal cooling ocean influence but close enough for elevated dew points. Also lines up with the most urban parts of the region as a bonus. A line roughly along Newark-->Astoria-->Upper Manhattan-->Bx--> southern Westchester and a little N&W of that. A big difference between a 97/58 in Orange county vs 94/72 around the GWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 75/70 cloudy as the winds shift and bring the heat into the area. Should we clear out later this afternoon inland spots and some warmer spots should start their respective 90+ /heatwaves. Heat the big story the next 5 - 7 days - hazy - hot and humid. Likely no widespread records but with enough sun i would watch Sun and Mon for 100s EWR - LGA - JFK inland NE-NJ. Storms possible especially Mon. Tue PM / Wed (7/22) look to get more southerly component to winds so perhaps those upper 70 and 80 degree dewpoints those days. Beyond 7/23 - ridging is still anchored into the Mid West with the Western Atlantic Ridge pulsing west, keeping heights higher with continued war to hot and wetter / stormy chances through the end of Jul and into August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Since that initial .05 shower early this morning it's only stopped for about 30 minutes. It has been a steady heavy mist ever since adding another .05 and it's just miserable outside right now. Things had just barely dried out after Fay last weekend and now it's thoroughly soaked and soggy again. Amazing how such small amounts can be so impactful sometimes. Looks like another day where it will be a stretch to reach 75, it's 67* now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Since that initial .05 shower early this morning it's only stopped for about 30 minutes. It has been a steady heavy mist ever since adding another .05 and it's just miserable outside right now. Things had just barely dried out after Fay last weekend and now it's thoroughly soaked and soggy again. Amazing how such small amounts can be so impactful sometimes. Looks like another day where it will be a stretch to reach 75, it's 67* now. depending if that clearing line to our west works in-we may see sun mid-afternoon on....especially western sections. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: depending if that clearing line to our west works in-we may see sun mid-afternoon on....especially western sections. I just have to let "the rest of the crew" know that it's not all about dry, humid and hot. It's been below avg high temps here again so far this month. I haven't looked at lows so I don't know where it stands overall. While the precip numbers are well below a lot of areas, like yours, it has been consistently wet without needing to really water the garden more than a couple of times all month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: I just have to let "the rest of the crew" know that it's not all about dry, humid and hot. It's been below avg high temps here again so far this month. I haven't looked at lows so I don't know where it stands overall. While the precip numbers are well below a lot of areas, like yours, it has been consistently wet without needing to really water the garden more than a couple of times all month. True-I haven't watered much since the flash drought ended 6/24. Getting some mist here now as well. 69 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I just have to let "the rest of the crew" know that it's not all about dry, humid and hot. It's been below avg high temps here again so far this month. I haven't looked at lows so I don't know where it stands overall. While the precip numbers are well below a lot of areas, like yours, it has been consistently wet without needing to really water the garden more than a couple of times all month. The warm minimums have been leading the departures In the Hudson Valley. POU is +4.4 so far. Max departure +3.1 and min +5.8. Climatological Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - July 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Sum 1397 1058 - - 0 191 2.40 Average 87.3 66.1 76.7 4.4 - - - Normal 84.2 60.3 72.3 - 0 120 2.26 Above Normals represent the month through 2020-07-16. 2020-07-01 85 63 74.0 2.7 0 9 0.02 2020-07-02 94 60 77.0 5.5 0 12 0.07 2020-07-03 86 67 76.5 4.9 0 12 0.30 2020-07-04 91 67 79.0 7.2 0 14 0.00 2020-07-05 93 64 78.5 6.6 0 14 0.00 2020-07-06 95 65 80.0 8.0 0 15 0.00 2020-07-07 82 65 73.5 1.3 0 9 0.00 2020-07-08 83 69 76.0 3.7 0 11 1.34 2020-07-09 92 67 79.5 7.1 0 15 0.00 2020-07-10 82 69 75.5 3.0 0 11 0.39 2020-07-11 89 73 81.0 8.4 0 16 0.28 2020-07-12 88 70 79.0 6.3 0 14 T 2020-07-13 87 67 77.0 4.3 0 12 0.00 2020-07-14 88 63 75.5 2.7 0 11 0.00 2020-07-15 84 62 73.0 0.1 0 8 0.00 2020-07-16 78 67 72.5 -0.4 0 8 0.00 2020-07-17 M M M M M M M 2020-07-18 M M M M M M M 2020-07-19 M M M M M M M 2020-07-20 M M M M M M M 2020-07-21 M M M M M M M 2020-07-22 M M M M M M M 2020-07-23 M M M M M M M 2020-07-24 M M M M M M M 2020-07-25 M M M M M M M 2020-07-26 M M M M M M M 2020-07-27 M M M M M M M 2020-07-28 M M M M M M M 2020-07-29 M M M M M M M 2020-07-30 M M M M M M M 2020-07-31 M M M M M M M 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Monday has some potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 so far the coolest minimum in Central Park this month is 67...if that holds up it will become a new record for the highest July monthly minimum...it was 69 this morning in a little rain in NYC...it broke a long stretch with a minimum 70 or higher... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, uncle W said: so far the coolest minimum in Central Park this month is 67...if that holds up it will become a new record for the highest July monthly minimum...it was 69 this morning in a little rain in NYC...it broke a long stretch with a minimum 70 or higher... The margin of the new record Is more impressive to our north if it can hold. Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 62 15 2 2019 57 0 3 2008 56 0 - 2004 56 0 4 2011 54 0 - 2006 54 0 - 2005 54 0 5 2016 53 0 - 2014 53 0 - 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0 - 1998 53 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 15 2 2008 66 0 3 2019 65 0 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Mon or Tue might have more of a westerly component to the winds but until then it’ll be hard to get out of the mid 80s right along the south shore, especially since it might be a stiff onshore wind. The humidity might make that stifling anyway. It’ll be worse up here since it should be 5-7 degs warmer each day with the same humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mon or Tue might have more of a westerly component to the winds but until then it’ll be hard to get out of the mid 80s right along the south shore, especially since it might be a stiff onshore wind. The humidity might make that stifling anyway. It’ll be worse up here since it should be 5-7 degs warmer each day with the same humidity. We are going to roast up here. Mid 90s and dews in the low 70s. This is when NW Suffolk and NE Nassau bakes, these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Clearing working down from NW NJ. 83/71 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Current temp 82/DP 74/RH 77% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 75/73 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 77/74 in Syosset & 77/72 in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 cloudy 78/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2020 Author Share Posted July 17, 2020 Just going to throw some temp numbers out for my back yard for Saturday-Tuesday and see where things land. Saturday 7/18: 94 Sunday 7/19: 98 Monday 7/20: 97 Tuesday 7/21: 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 The minimum temperature departures to our north this month are pretty impressive, BTV...+6.1 ALB...+7.0 POU...+5.8 LGA....+4.8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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