July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

Got to 88*(35%RH) here at 5pm.

The next 17 days on the hot or hotter GFS is:  77/93 = 85 or +7.        Some lows in the 80's  and some highs 100's to take us there.      Good Luck.      At least it says Day 17 might average BN!

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

these so-called cold fronts should really be called dew fronts....

The Euro has 75°+ dew points from Saturday through next Thursday. Some spots around the region may see their first 80° dew point of the season. JFK could be on its way to 5 consecutive years with double digit 75°+ dew point days. So a continuation of the high dew point surge which began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Got to 88*(35%RH) here at 5pm.

The next 17 days on the hot or hotter GFS is:  77/93 = 85 or +7.        Some lows in the 80's  and some highs 100's to take us there.      Good Luck.      At least it says Day 17 might average BN!

i seriously doubt their will be a super long stretch of such extreme heat after all  last week the gfs predicted extreme heat for this week in the city...

[forkyfork]

-3.1 magnitude ISS pass starting at 10:02 pm tonight

[wdrag]

mPing: I may be late to the table on this...  apparently a big problem developed ~7/7.  Not sure who corrupted the db, but here's what NSSL has. If there is more updated info, please update me. Thanks, Walt

What happened to the mPING app? On July 7, 2020, mPING was flooded with false weather reports and was shut down temporarily. We are working to eliminate vulnerabilities that allowed these false reports to be submitted. However, this may require some time. Once the app is updated, everyone will have the ability to submit mPING weather reports and view the interactive map of mPING reports. We appreciate everyone's patience as we resolve these vulnerabilities. The mPING project is a citizen science collaborative effort led by CIMMS and NOAA NSSL.

[wdrag]

Presume awareness of isolated shower clusters advancing south thru se NYS and sw CT portion of the forum at 6P. Presume these will die around sunset before reaching I80.  EC continues 850 jet NYS Thursday night with decent WAA into New England and NYC forum w showers and maybe an elevated based thunderstorm by daybreak Friday.  Current EC trends sweep the primary Fri afternoon threat for refiring convection s of I80.  Heat is on beyond Friday per the notes by others herein.  My view of next good chance of big thunderstorms is Monday, with the work week day's thereafter as per pooling of CAPE/KI/PWAT without a cap...worried about 500MB cap Tuesday. So am uncertain about Tue convection materializing.

We're also getting to the time of year where sea breeze boundaries in a high CAPE environment can light up convection on e LI, with less chance in nw NJ if boundaries aren't present there. In other words,  Suffolk, eastern Nassau might do okay next week for afternoon convection "if" and near seabreeze intersections. We'll see if this can happen? 620P/14

[gravitylover]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Presume awareness of isolated shower clusters advancing south thru se NYS and sw CT portion of the forum at 6P. Presume these will die around sunset before reaching I80.  EC continues 850 jet NYS Thursday night with decent WAA into New England and NYC forum w showers and maybe an elevated based thunderstorm by daybreak Friday.  Current EC trends sweep the primary Fri afternoon threat for refiring convection s of I80.  Heat is on beyond Friday per the notes by others herein.  My view of next good chance of big thunderstorms is Monday, with the work week day's thereafter as per pooling of CAPE/KI/PWAT without a cap...worried about 500MB cap Tuesday. So am uncertain about Tue convection materializing.

We're also getting to the time of year where sea breeze boundaries in a high CAPE environment can light up convection on e LI, with less chance in nw NJ if boundaries aren't present there. In other words,  Suffolk, eastern Nassau might do okay next week for afternoon convection "if" and near seabreeze intersections. We'll see if this can happen? 620P/14

Those storms are just barely east of me. It's bangin' and rumblin' pretty good with a solid wall of rain falling and a few lightning flashes but I can't tell if it's c2g or c2c. It's totally backlit by the sun to the west and has a hardcore Matisse thing going, too cool

edit: It didn't stay totally dry, I did get 3 minutes of heavy rain, 7 minutes of rain overall, and some wind but it was very obviously a fringe situation.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

-3.1 magnitude ISS pass starting at 10:02 pm tonight

you can actually see the solar panels on the ISS on pictures taken with long zoom cameras!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has 75°+ dew points from Saturday through at least next Friday. Some spots around the region may see their first 80° dew point of the season. JFK could be on its way to 5 consecutive years with double digit 75°+ dew point days. So a continuation of the high dew point surge which began with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

Chris is this also why we haven't seen a 100 degree day here in so long- last summer was the closest we've gotten since 2013.

 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris is this also why we haven't seen a 100 degree day here in so long- last summer was the closest we've gotten since 2013.

 

Yeah, the last 100 at JFK  was back in 2013. The 2010-2013 period featured more westerly flow heat events. The subtropical high shifted further north and east since the super El Niño in 2015-2016. So our heatwaves since  then have come with much higher humidity and S to SSE flow. But the higher heat indices made it feel like we have had numerous 100 degree days.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=feel&dir=aoa&thres=100&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

 

[doncat]

87/67 temp split today...low humidity, just great mid July weather.

[Brian5671]

Crush job here as a cell formed on seabreeze front/outflow from another storm, quick .70    

[Cfa]

Dark and windy here, cell sliding about half a mile to my east, you can’t make this up.

80/68....high was 88, low was 69.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Dark and windy here, cell sliding about half a mile to my east, you can’t make this up.

Sky is black to my East. We dry. 

[Cfa]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sky is black to my East. We dry. 

Rained for literally 5 seconds here (yes literally), started and stopped almost instantly. One of those situations where you can smell the rain and see it falling 1-2 blocks away but you get nothing.

Edit: Storm blew up to my south, just as it cleared me...

[qg_omega]

Pouring

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what's the highest temp the CONUS has seen thus far this year?  I heard Death Valley hit 128 two days ago, was that it?  Globally too?

 

That was the highest I have seen anywhere.

[donsutherland1]

To date, New York City has yet to experience a heat wave this summer. That will remain the case through the remainder of this week. However, a widespread heat wave could overspread the region starting this weekend.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 13):

Albany: 10 (2019: 12)
Allentown: 8 (2019: 24)
Baltimore: 21 (2019: 59)
Boston: 1 (2019: 15)
Burlington: 12 (2019: 8)
Harrisburg: 11 (2019: 33)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8)
New York City: 6 (2019: 15)
Newark: 10 (2019: 27)
Philadelphia: 14 (2019: 35)
Washington, DC: 23 (2019: 62)

With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 19th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 29-August 18, 1988 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 21 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -11.39.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.885.

On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.877.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 44 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

 

[Tatamy]

The station at Cherry Grove on Fire Island just measured a gust to 46 mph with the squall passing out towards the ocean.

[SACRUS]

7/14

LGA: 89
ACY: 89
JFK: 88
BLM: 88
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 87
EWR: 87
ISP: 86
TTN: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 85

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

7/14

LGA: 89
ACY: 89
JFK: 88
BLM: 88
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 87
EWR: 87
ISP: 86
TTN: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 85

lol NYC 

[mjr]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, New York City has yet to experience a heat wave this summer. That will remain the case through the remainder of this week. However, a widespread heat wave could overspread the region starting this weekend.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 13):

Albany: 10 (2019: 12)
Allentown: 8 (2019: 24)
Baltimore: 21 (2019: 59)
Boston: 1 (2019: 15)
Burlington: 12 (2019: 8)
Harrisburg: 11 (2019: 33)
Islip: 1 (2019: 8)
New York City: 6 (2019: 15)
Newark: 10 (2019: 27)
Philadelphia: 14 (2019: 35)
Washington, DC: 23 (2019: 62)

With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 19th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 29-August 18, 1988 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 21 consecutive days.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below.

The SOI was -11.39.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.885.

On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.877.

The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 44 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°.

 

I am curious as to why someone of your stature, knowledge and experience continues to use KNYC as a reflection of afternoon heat (no. of 90 degree days, heat wave occurrence) actually experienced in NY City. The legitimacy of the thermometer reading seems to have been severely corrupted by its placement in an area of dense foliage. When one thinks of NY City, midtown Manhattan comes to mind. The best proxies would seem to be LGA, EWR or TEB (or Central Park before 1996). Hypothetically, if those three sites were to record temperatures in the low to mid 90s while NYC only reached 89 because it might have rained two days earlier, and to thus conclude that New York City did not experience a heat wave, does not reflect reality. On this site, observers from Staten Island, Brooklyn and the Bronx all report significantly more 90+ days. In addition, to look at 2019 and conclude that NY City had only15 90 degree days, the same number as Boston, would be very misleading to an outside observer who did not know that LGA, EWR and TEB had 26-37 such days. A casual observer would certainly find it hard to believe and might form an inaccurate picture of actual NY summer conditions. KNYC is a proxy for its own small few hundred square foot area. It does not accurately represent any place else. To pretend otherwise risks legitimizing a false narrative of NYC summers

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 83.5degs., or 5.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.5[78.7].         Should be +3.6[80.5] by the 23rd.

75*(71%RH) at 6am, scattered clouds.            76* by Noon.

 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning American Weather! A little more complex next week per frontal boundaries. Hope for the 100F but my guess is not, and if so...probably only vicinity EWR. Nevertheless it will be rather hot at times Sunday-Thursday, with 90 probably starting Saturday (HI should make it close to 105 on 1 or 2 days). Big storms... too complex for me now, to be sure of anything. WAA showers/roll of thunder early Friday (see SPC 7/15 issuance upstream D2 severe for late Thursday). Debris may mess up Fri afternoon.  Then next week is a mess with potential for a couple of decent episodes. Just not as clear cut to me when and confidence. (btw, interesting CAPE and some modeling for coastal NJ/NYC area this afternoon for a brief shower?)  625A/15

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, mjr said:

I am curious as to why someone of your stature, knowledge and experience continues to use KNYC as a reflection of afternoon heat (no. of 90 degree days, heat wave occurrence) actually experienced in NY City. The legitimacy of the thermometer reading seems to have been severely corrupted by its placement in an area of dense foliage. When one thinks of NY City, midtown Manhattan comes to mind. The best proxies would seem to be LGA, EWR or TEB (or Central Park before 1996). Hypothetically, if those three sites were to record temperatures in the low to mid 90s while NYC only reached 89 because it might have rained two days earlier, and to thus conclude that New York City did not experience a heat wave, does not reflect reality. On this site, observers from Staten Island, Brooklyn and the Bronx all report significantly more 90+ days. In addition, to look at 2019 and conclude that NY City had only15 90 degree days, the same number as Boston, would be very misleading to an outside observer who did not know that LGA, EWR and TEB had 26-37 such days. A casual observer would certainly find it hard to believe and might form an inaccurate picture of actual NY summer conditions. KNYC is a proxy for its own small few hundred square foot area. It does not accurately represent any place else. To pretend otherwise risks legitimizing a false narrative of NYC summers

I'm going to say it's for the sake of consistency. The station had been used for a long time and even though it was moved a few years ago it's still in range of the original site so qualifies for consistency's sake. I do agree with you though that it hasn't been properly representative of the area for quite some time though and should either be moved or disregarded in favor of one that is more appropriate.

[doncat]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'm going to say it's for the sake of consistency. The station had been used for a long time and even though it was moved a few years ago it's still in range of the original site so qualifies for consistency's sake. I do agree with you though that it hasn't been properly representative of the area for quite some time though and should either be moved or disregarded in favor of one that is more appropriate.

It really only is a problem in the warm season when trying to quantify heat with its shading problems...at other times it's fine for its UHI environment.

[gravitylover]

This is a dense and wet overcast this morning. That burst of rain late yesterday (.15") soaked everything and with the clouds it's staying really cool out with temps locally at 65*. 

[MJO812]

74 here in Atlantic City

[LoboLeader1]

Currently a comfortable 58 (Mount Greylock) up here in the Berkshires.

 

[SACRUS]

77/67 E winds and partly sunny as some clouds pushing inland from the east winds.  Two days of onshore flow will keep temps in the low to perhaps mid 80s.  I do think Thu may see temps outdo guidance with mostly sunny conditions.

Queue Lovin Spoonful Hot town Summer in the City (even the park)

Friday should see the beginning of a very hot period away from the coast. Pending on any clouds/storms temps will shoot to 90 in many inland spots.  Coastal and metro areas may need to wait till Saturday to begin the heatwave.  Very hot air mass 850MB temps >16c through D9 on most guidance with more heat coming in beyond that in way out range.  Heat peaking Sun PM (7/19) through Tues (7/21) where 850b temps of 20c should translate to the surface with 95(+) heat and with enough sun some areas could push the century mark that havent eclipsed 98 / 99 since 2013. High humidity will launch dewpouints into the 70s and perhaps upper 70s towards the middle of next week.  This should allow fairly consistent storm chances (ala Florida-like) tropics feel. Longer range beyond any front or brief reprise 7/25, ridge looks to rebuild into the east towards the end of July and continue hot overall opattern. Still need to watch storms and any weakness in the ridge that could lead to the persistent easterly flow.  But overall Fri - next Wed looks Hazy Hot Humid.