LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 78/65 felling much less tropical today. Clear skies should get most stations outside the park to 90 today. Will post monthly precip totals next,. Warm and wet continues. ULL brings more E/ NE winds Wed - Thu before the heat is on. Lots of 88/ 89 days perhaps a 90 or two in the warmer spots Tue - Thu. Ridge centered a bit south for the extreme potential record breaking heat till at least 7/18, perhaps during the hottest time of the year it moves over the area.. Beyond storms tomorrow (Mon 7/13) the week looks to dry things out. Heights are high most of the next two weeks with a very hot airmass over much of the east. Flow will determine extent of maxes. ECM pushes 850 temps >16 by Fri PM and near 20c next weekend so what looked like strong heat Thu is now being forecast 7/18 - 7/21 (next weekend) as cutoff over New England moves through by 7/18. Overall as the heat comes and we are away from the center of the axis which meanders towards the plains then GL, storms should continue to be consistent so no true drying out. Hopefully we will have come clear viewing for historic Comet Neowise, which is now a 1st mag object and will make its nearest approach to earth on 7/22. It will be visible in the NW skies about 90 min after sunset from the 14th onwards (prior to that it was in the early dawn sky about 90 min before sunrise in the NE.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 23 hours ago, CIK62 said: I am curious which location in NYC===your data is official for. I assume Central Park. Because I once downloaded the daily records to an Excel file and I see there that July 01, 02 are listed as 75,78----for the lows. Their period of June 28-==July 05 1872 constituted a spectacular (for the time frame) heatwave of 8 days and what the heck was going on in 1908? two long stretches of 80+ dew points and heat in that summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, wdrag said: another good observation. good work Walt, thanks for the kind words. I have really enjoyed reading your forecast discussions over the years. From your AFDs during the late 90s in Boston to your present work on this forum. 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yep thats what I have been saying, this is about as "good" of a year for midatlantic and northeast tropical impacts as we have seen in our lifetimes ("good" in quotes obviously because it aint really "good" in human impact terms.) But we also have to look at how this year matches up to 1996 and take note of the fact that an early tropical hit doesn't mean we will get another one later on. Yeah, it really comes down to the pattern as we approach the peak of the hurricane season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Up to 91 here now...little higher than expected... DP is lower though at 62. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Current temp up to 91 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Good Sunday afternoon everyone, No new threads. Not well synched for our area tomorrow, tho possible iso svr LI/sw CT maybe back ti NYC Longitude?? Just seems like nw NJ (Morristown westward)/Orange County NY out of it. Afternoon hailers seem possible New England, and maybe under the cold core upstate NY? Did want to note that we might have a pretty decent elevated based thunderstorm during the night tonight with more 40% coverage of measurable showers. Could pop isolated 1" amount in any thunderstorms. Seems like the approaching trough, 500T cooling and 850T holding steady, PWAT increasing to 1.8" overnight, 850 VORT trough, and KI looking to rise into the mid 30s suggests to me an instability burst (Dr Rod Scofield research). Would not surprise to see isolated G30 kt. Look upstream after sunset to see if anything redevelops and starts heading toward NNJ/LI. 310P/12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 2 hours ago, TriPol said: Didn't the AO go negative last July and August as well? Isn't that an indicator of an upcoming heatwave? Yes. It was predominantly negative last summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Current temp 92/DP 66/RH 42% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow thats shockingly high for NYC, I wonder what the highest DP at JFK was? Yeah that was more JFK like. It think the dew point was boosted by occasional downpours throughout the day. I know it was higher than JFK at the same time. Today the soaked Park is running cooler than LGA EWR JFK, White Plains, etc..everybody except maybe Islip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yep thats what I have been saying, this is about as "good" of a year for midatlantic and northeast tropical impacts as we have seen in our lifetimes ("good" in quotes obviously because it aint really "good" in human impact terms.) But we also have to look at how this year matches up to 1996 and take note of the fact that an early tropical hit doesn't mean we will get another one later on. How is 1996 an analogue of 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TriPol said: How is 1996 an analogue of 2020? the scarcity of 90 degree days but lots of high humidity, as well as the early tropical hit along the east coast. We've been talking about 1996 as a possible analog since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 90/64 at my station. Amazing how much more comfortable 10 degrees off the dew point feels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 91 here for the high. The Park is trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Made it to 88 here, clouds in the afternoon blocked us from reaching 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 High 91 here. At ferry point pk across the water from 92 degree LGA, sure feels like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: 91 here for the high. The Park is trash i like the cooler temps in the central park area makes it more tolerable.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 91/70 max/min today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. It was predominantly negative last summer. negative in the summer...positive in the winter...lets hope that does not repeat... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: negative in the summer...positive in the winter...lets hope that does not repeat... The last thing I want to see is another winter like the last one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Temperatures rose into the 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region and at or above 90° or above from Newark southward. Overnight, parts of the region will see showers and some thundershowers. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today. In parts of the Southwest, record heat prevailed. High temperatures included: Palm Springs: 121° (old record: 120°, 1958 and 1985) Phoenix: 116° (old record: 115°, 2005 and 2009) Tucson: 113° (old record: 110°, 2005) With a high temperature of 90°, Washington, DC registered its 17th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 22-August 8, 1999 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 18 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +16.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.959. On July 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.967 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.297. The MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 42 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°. over the last ten Years July's average temperature in NYC is 78.8...1990-2019 average is 77.3... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Small shower just popped up overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 7/12 LGA: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Upton going with a fairly rainy afternoon tomorrow. Nam says it falls overnight and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Look at the line forming northwest of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 80 and drizzle, after moderate shower passed through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west. F me ignore this just fireworks at 11 PM on a Sunday. I've heard three times as many fireworks this summer as I have any other summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said: F me ignore this just fireworks at 11 PM on a Sunday. I've heard three times as many fireworks this summer as I have any other summer. Yeah i've been hearing them tonight too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah i've been hearing them tonight too Where you at? I live in the Pleasantview Gardens apartments off Carlton Avenue. We must be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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