uncle W Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: I am curious which location in NYC===your data is official for. I assume Central Park. Because I once downloaded the daily records to an Excel file and I see there that July 01, 02 are listed as 75,78----for the lows. Their period of June 28-==July 05 1872 constituted a spectacular (for the time frame) heatwave of 8 days I don't remember where I got those numbers from but they are not in threadX or xmacis...I'll take them off the list until I can find where I got those numbers from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Fog rolling back in along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Fog rolling back in along the South Shore. Was at Hecksher in Islip until 1:30 and was cool and foggy. Once we got north of the LIE it cleared and was hot and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Was at Hecksher in Islip until 1:30 and was cool and foggy. Once we got north of the LIE it cleared and was hot and sunny The marine layer lifted a bit for some filtered sunshine at times here on the GSB. Now the treetops are covered again in fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Another round of heavy rain moved though but with more wind, some lightening. Seems to be along the same line multiple times today. No more drought talk here. Totally saturated ground now. 2 days of heavy rain now backyard is a small pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 Goodbye drought? 4.89" rain past 12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 High for the day was 90 here. Picked up 0.56" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 In the wake of Tropical Storm Fay, sunshine returned to the region. Parts of the area saw one or more thundershowers. Tomorrow will be sunny and warmer with many parts of the region approaching or reaching 90°. With a high temperature of 93°, Washington, DC registered its 16th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 18-August 2, 2011 when the temperature also reached 90° or above on 16 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +13.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.976. On July 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.300 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.513. That was the 21st consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. That broke the old record of 19 consecutive days in Phase 1, which was set during the July 6-24, 2004 period. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 41 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 This evening, a thundershower moved through parts of southern Westchester County with a brief downpour and a gusty breeze. Afterward, a rainbow appeared over the Long Island Sound. Two photos: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Good Sunday morning everyone! A new day-start. More convection. No strong thunderstorm thread on Monday yet, tho SPCD2 now has a marginal (no hailers mentioned). Prefer to revaluate and may be hold off til early tomorrow morning, if then. Edited: 612A Hailer risk may be better for Tuesday, and only the New England forum. Thursday the 17th, now looks off for me here (elevated based and dying convection rolling east across parts of the area Thursday night?). After that, whatever the models give, they might take away... but does look hot for a day or 2 around the 19th-21st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 82degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is 78.8[+2.9]. Should be 80.1[+3.4] by the 20th. 74*(75%RH) here at 6am-m. clear. 81*(58%), fair weather cumulus, by Noon. Was on beach here in CI, largest crowd so far this wacky season. 88*(38%RH) by 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Only the 4th time in the last 20 years with no 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark by July 11th. The unusual part is how much warmer the departures are this June and July compared to the other years. Frequent onshore flow intervals have been limiting the 90°days to only 2 in a row. No 3 day 90° heatwaves at Newark last 20 years by July 11th and June and July temperature departures 2020...Jun...+2.0....Jul...+2.5 2009...Jun....-3.5....Jul....-3.1 2006...Jun....+0.2...Jul...+2.0 2004...Jun....-0.2....Jul....-2.4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 78/65 felling much less tropical today. Clear skies should get most stations outside the park to 90 today. Will post monthly precip totals next,. Warm and wet continues. ULL brings more E/ NE winds Wed - Thu before the heat is on. Lots of 88/ 89 days perhaps a 90 or two in the warmer spots Tue - Thu. Ridge centered a bit south for the extreme potential record breaking heat till at least 7/18, perhaps during the hottest time of the year it moves over the area.. Beyond storms tomorrow (Mon 7/13) the week looks to dry things out. Heights are high most of the next two weeks with a very hot airmass over much of the east. Flow will determine extent of maxes. ECM pushes 850 temps >16 by Fri PM and near 20c next weekend so what looked like strong heat Thu is now being forecast 7/18 - 7/21 (next weekend) as cutoff over New England moves through by 7/18. Overall as the heat comes and we are away from the center of the axis which meanders towards the plains then GL, storms should continue to be consistent so no true drying out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 7/10 (T Fay) ACY: 80 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 LGA: 79 EWR: 79 BLM: 79 New Brnswck: 78 NYC: 77 TTN: 77 TEB: 77 PHL: 76 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7/11 PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 88 TTN: 88 ACY: 88 LGA: 88 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 NYC: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 79 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 July monthly Precip totals EWR: 6/74 TEB: 6.52 NYC: 4.02 NEw Brnswk: 3.99 LGA: 2.93 JFK: 2.89 TTN: 2.43 ISP: 1.67 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Unusually strong high pressure to our north and east so far this summer. Notice how the day 10 Euro underestimated the high pressure forecast to be over SE Canada in 5 days. So we get more onshore flow day 5 than was forecast at day 10. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. Since persistent high pressure to our north and east would allow more East Coast tropical cyclone impacts. New run Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Yep, the big heat is getting pushed back again. Any big heat pass day 5 Never makes it here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 I’m definitely concerned about hurricanes along the east coast if this pattern persists through the rest of summer, which I think it will do. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, the big heat is getting pushed back again. Any big heat pass day 5 Never makes it here Yet the hottest day in NYC so far this summer wasn’t modeled to be that hot, as I recall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: July monthly Precip totals EWR: 6/74 TEB: 6.52 NYC: 4.02 NEw Brnswk: 3.99 LGA: 2.93 JFK: 2.89 TTN: 2.43 ISP: 1.67 Wettest first 2 weeks of July on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 2020-07-14 6.74 3 2 1984-07-14 5.39 0 3 1967-07-14 5.07 0 4 1950-07-14 4.92 0 5 2014-07-14 4.02 0 6 1996-07-14 4.01 0 7 1987-07-14 3.86 0 8 1972-07-14 3.62 0 9 1989-07-14 3.48 0 10 2005-07-14 3.45 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Noon Roundup Humidity dropped and DT in the low 60s / gorgeous day ACY: 88 EWR: 86 BLM: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 84 TEB: 83 NYC: -- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2020 Author Share Posted July 12, 2020 Definitely a bit more comfortable then yesterday. Current temp 86/DP 66/RH 51% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In the wake of Tropical Storm Fay, sunshine returned to the region. Parts of the area saw one or more thundershowers. Tomorrow will be sunny and warmer with many parts of the region approaching or reaching 90°. With a high temperature of 93°, Washington, DC registered its 16th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 18-August 2, 2011 when the temperature also reached 90° or above on 16 consecutive days. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region, including New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The last time the six-week moving average for ENSO Region 1+2 was as cold as the current figure during July or August occurred in 2013. Winter 2013-14 had neutral-cool ENSO conditions. January and February featured ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies that were -0.50°C or below. The SOI was +13.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.976. On July 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.300 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.513. That was the 21st consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. That broke the old record of 19 consecutive days in Phase 1, which was set during the July 6-24, 2004 period. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 41 consecutive days. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July. July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3°. Didn't the AO go negative last July and August as well? Isn't that an indicator of an upcoming heatwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 87/69. Decent breeze but it’s hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 89/70/94. Roasting on this west wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Noon Roundup Humidity dropped and DT in the low 60s / gorgeous day ACY: 88 EWR: 86 BLM: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 84 TEB: 83 NYC: -- It's really nice out there today, loving this lower humidity and warm temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Wettest first 2 weeks of July on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 14 Missing Count 1 2020-07-14 6.74 3 2 1984-07-14 5.39 0 3 1967-07-14 5.07 0 4 1950-07-14 4.92 0 5 2014-07-14 4.02 0 6 1996-07-14 4.01 0 7 1987-07-14 3.86 0 8 1972-07-14 3.62 0 9 1989-07-14 3.48 0 10 2005-07-14 3.45 0 and none of those summers were particularly hot. Well 2005 at the bottom of the list was very warm, but not hot by 90 degree standards here on the south shore and no 100 degree readings here either. 1996 seems to be a really good match for this summer, first because we got hit by Bertha in early July similar to Fay, and also because of how humid it's been without a large number of 90 degree days. I remember back in May I said that this warm season matches up well to 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Unusually strong high pressure to our north and east so far this summer. Notice how the day 10 Euro underestimated the high pressure forecast to be over SE Canada in 5 days. So we get more onshore flow day 5 than was forecast at day 10. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. Since persistent high pressure to our north and east would allow more East Coast tropical cyclone impacts. New run Old run another good observation. good work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 21 hours ago, dWave said: Sunshine in between showers..adding to humidity. 83 dew 78 HI 93. Central park is 81 with a 77 dew point. wow thats shockingly high for NYC, I wonder what the highest DP at JFK was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Unusually strong high pressure to our north and east so far this summer. Notice how the day 10 Euro underestimated the high pressure forecast to be over SE Canada in 5 days. So we get more onshore flow day 5 than was forecast at day 10. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. Since persistent high pressure to our north and east would allow more East Coast tropical cyclone impacts. New run Old run Yep thats what I have been saying, this is about as "good" of a year for midatlantic and northeast tropical impacts as we have seen in our lifetimes ("good" in quotes obviously because it aint really "good" in human impact terms.) But we also have to look at how this year matches up to 1996 and take note of the fact that an early tropical hit doesn't mean we will get another one later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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