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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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77/70 as low clouds burn off with wind change.  Next two days should see temps exceed guidance where its mostly sunny.  Temps low to mid 90s perhaps hotter as 18-20C 850 temps are nearby today and monday.  Tuesday we will see how far NE flow keeps the cool, but another day that could get use our heatwave before the next chance Wed - Fri. Storms possible each day Mon - Fri.   

ULL (sub tropical low) again further north on guidance, ECM had that feature since earlier last week  - lost it,  then  it over the southeast  and is back now. north since 00z Sat runs.   Could be a soaker Fri evening if it comes north and id bet on it ending a dry pattern with a soaker.  Beyond there as we clear this feature plenty of heat rebuilding into Lakes, Mid West by 7/13.  Believe that allusive triple digit may have a chance between mid July and early August with one of these surges.  Warm and wet now evolving looks like June might have been an anomaly.  

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47 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Dew point has been steadily dropping along with low humidity should make it more comfortable this afternoon.

Current temp 91/DP 62/RH 39%

While most are seeing DPs drop mine spiked. 87/73 here.  

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Good Sunday afternoon,  

Just a couple of notes:  SPC upgraded mid Atlantic tomorrow to "marginal".  Not sure if it can happen along the NYS/NJ border but trust SPC considerations... modeling that I/we might not be aware of.  Also,  IF and/or when NHC starts Edouard/FAY??? mid week and confidently-reliably projects QPF impact here (still easily could be an unnamed low),  we may want a separate topic from what is potentially going to develop Monday afternoon through Thursday.  Think the indicators are continuing in some of the 12z/5 modeling for an active-heavy QPF Mon-Thu in parts of NY metro (including parts of LI-WAA). SPC HREF has potential for 1"+ thunderstorms near or south of I80 Monday afternoon-evening (HREF mean qpf is less) responding to increased CAPE/PWAT and the associated instability burst, with a little 850 flow kink modeled toward our area.

and below from SPC regarding Monday potential: 

...Southern NY/western PA and the Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

   Modest vertical shear will exist across the region on Monday
   afternoon/evening, with strong flow and forcing for ascent focused
   further to the north over New England as a shortwave trough shifts
   eastward and eventually offshore. However, a very moist airmass will
   be in place, with surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F common.
   Strong heating (high temps 85-95) will result in steep low level
   lapse rates and MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/kg. Midlevel lapse
   rates also will be steeper thanks to cooling aloft associated with
   the aforementioned shortwave trough. As a result, clusters of
   thunderstorms capable of sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts and
   occasional hail will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

 

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