July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.26" of rain when the storms moved through.

High for the day was 95 here.

Current temp 72

[wdrag]

Good Saturday morning everyone,

Hope you're safely celebrating!  I've little change to my early Friday post except to flag Monday's convective risk as potentially occurring near or south of I78, bit it's too early for me to throw in the towel for Monday. In the meantime, I can still see something here in nw NJ this afternoon, not real big but an interrupting shower or thunderstorm. Still high dew points. Had 0.21" last evening around 7PM. Will look more closely Sunday morning on next weeks activity. Adding some of the verification for yesterday on the Friday event topic. Would like to find max rainfall... I am quite sure over 2.5" in CT. I haven't had time to review all the updates in the past 24 hours but any reports over 2"--please toss em in- thanks!.

601A/4

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or about 3degs. AN.

The GFS continues its positive bias in a big way-----the cut for the next 15 days is 79/96 >>> 87.5 = +10.      It includes the hottest day in our history for July 16 of: 88/108!!!.      For one month the GFS has included a 100-Degree Day or more than one, late in the run, today's starts at Day 10.

71* here at 6am, moderate overcast.        77* by Noon, m. clear.         79* by 4pm.

 

[bluewave]

Big story going forward will be the back and forth between the stronger heat and onshore flow. Days like Sunday will feature more SW flow and 90s moving further east. Monday and Tuesday has the onshore flow pushing the best heat just to our south and west. The EPS indicates a continuation of this pattern through early July. 
 

 

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

More onshore flow

More onshore flow

...

I really don't feel the love for 90+ temps anymore. 

[SACRUS]

Happy 4th of July!  Realizing this is the 21st July 4th spent in the various and legacy weather communities .

72/68 (0.29) from yesterdays storm. Morning clouds clearing out with  cooler but still currently humid NE flow.    Coolest day in a while that isn't cloudy and raining.  4th of July coolest in a while but a beautiful day for America the beautiful in the mid 80s and near 80 long the coast with dry and less humid by the afternoon.  Sunday the flow is coming back around to the NW / W and we warm things back to the upper 80s and low 90s.  

 

Monday through Friday look to continue to the overall warmer theme with strong heat building by Wed - Fri.  Each day should see widspread 90 degree readings and the first true heatwave in the metro areas/wider region.  Storms should be possible most evenings so the days that stay drier and more sunny should exceed guidance but Wed  - Fri have shot of strong heat for consecutive days.   A more southerly component to the flow will bring the humidity by Wed PM and Thu with Dewpoints in the 70s.  ULL/cutoff a bit more south on the latest guidance but still needs to be watched Wed PM - Sat AM.  Beyond there Euro and GFS building a very strong ridge into the Mid West in the long range.  So week of 7/13 looks to continue the warm July's.

 

 

[uncle W]

warm periods in todays world means long stretches where no cool air penetrates the area like past years...it looks like July will become another summer month when the temperature failed to drop into the 50's in Central Park...without some cool days like that the month will end up above average even if there is no record heat...more and more we are seeing July's where the coolest days are in the low to mid 60's...

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, uncle W said:

warm periods in todays world means long stretches where no cool air penetrates the area like past years...it looks like July will become another summer month when the temperature failed to drop into the 50's in Central Park...without some cool days like that the month will end up above average even if there is no record heat...more and more we are seeing July's where the coolest days are in the low to mid 60's...

Yeah, warmth is our new default pattern especially for months like July. Hard to believe our last widespread coolJuly was way back in 2009. The main question since then has been how much warmer than average will July turn out. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/2009-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

New York	Climate Division 4	Average Temperature	July
Units: Degrees Fahrenheit
Base Period: 1981-2010
Missing: -99
Date	Value	Anomaly
200907	71.4	-2.5
201007	78.5	4.6
201107	77.4	3.5
201207	76.7	2.8
201307	77.7	3.8
201407	74.0	0.1
201507	75.6	1.7
201607	76.5	2.6
201707	74.4	0.5
201807	75.4	1.5
201907	77.4	3.5

 

New Jersey	Climate Division 1	Average Temperature	July
Units: Degrees Fahrenheit
Base Period: 1981-2010
Missing: -99
Date	Value	Anomaly
200907	69.8	-3.0
201007	76.5	3.7
201107	76.1	3.3
201207	76.0	3.2
201307	76.4	3.6
201407	72.9	0.1
201507	73.6	0.8
201607	75.4	2.6
201707	73.5	0.7
201807	74.9	2.1
201907	76.3	3.5

[SACRUS]

Queue the Beatles here comes the sun and up to 81/69 here. Quite humid.

[SACRUS]

Thu / Fri much the same on the Euro here 850s near >18 - 20C.  Very warm airmass nearby as Bluewave noted any W or Nrly component to the flow will bring the heat.  These are the best free maps i could post 0z

Saturday that low off the coast of the Carlonias pushing Easterly winds - gotta watch that ULL as previous runs that off the coast of DE by sat.

 

[gravitylover]

82/69 at the station a mile north and 85/72 a mile west. It's almost uncomfortable, few more minutes it will be for sure.

[Rtd208]

Warm and muggy day out there.

Current temp 86/DP 69/Rh 57%

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if that cutoff low later next week can take on some tropical characteristics. We haven’t missed an opportunity for onshore flow since May.

 

[uofmiami]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if that cutoff low later next week can take on some tropical characteristics. We haven’t missed an opportunity for onshore flow since May.

 

There goes another potential heatwave, never fails with onshore flow this summer.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ ~8 s High Point just tipped 0.02" with our 310P shower, T in the 202P shower. We'll take it. 81/73 at 313P EDT July 4.  

[Rtd208]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if that cutoff low later next week can take on some tropical characteristics. We haven’t missed an opportunity for onshore flow since May.

 

Mid-late week and into next weekend could be fairly wet around here. We'll see.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Mid-late week and into next weekend could be fairly wet around here. We'll see.

It will be a confirmation of whether the recent shift to wetter has staying power. The other guidance hugs the coast and is further west than the Euro. Any low tracking north from Hatteras in July has the potential to pick up plenty of tropical moisture. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

Ahhh this weather sucks. Why can’t it be warmer it’s like 38 degrees during winter. I want it to be 100 with high humidity like 20 with a snowstorm during the winter. Only extremes work for me. Spring and fall could be normal for all I care those are boring seasons!

Nah, any higher than mid 80's is no good. 78-82 is perfect. Maybe you don't pay for the electric to run the AC or maybe you're just weird 

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, warmth is our new default pattern especially for months like July. Hard to believe our last widespread coolJuly was way back in 2009. The main question since then has been how much warmer than average will July turn out. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/2009-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

New York	Climate Division 4	Average Temperature	July
Units: Degrees Fahrenheit
Base Period: 1981-2010
Missing: -99
Date	Value	Anomaly
200907	71.4	-2.5
201007	78.5	4.6
201107	77.4	3.5
201207	76.7	2.8
201307	77.7	3.8
201407	74.0	0.1
201507	75.6	1.7
201607	76.5	2.6
201707	74.4	0.5
201807	75.4	1.5
201907	77.4	3.5

 

New Jersey	Climate Division 1	Average Temperature	July
Units: Degrees Fahrenheit
Base Period: 1981-2010
Missing: -99
Date	Value	Anomaly
200907	69.8	-3.0
201007	76.5	3.7
201107	76.1	3.3
201207	76.0	3.2
201307	76.4	3.6
201407	72.9	0.1
201507	73.6	0.8
201607	75.4	2.6
201707	73.5	0.7
201807	74.9	2.1
201907	76.3	3.5

JJA 1996 had a total of four 90 degree days at ewr with a summer max of 92.  we are so disconnected from what an actual cold summer is like

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

JJA 1996 had a total of four 90 degree days at ewr with a summer max of 92.  we are so disconnected from what an actual cold summer is like

1996 was probably the most unique and interesting weather year of the 1990s. Seems like the 11/11/95 hurricane force gust cutter kicked off the unusual run of weather. Figures that I didn’t get online until January 1997 when the  boring stretch of weather was just beginning. 

[dWave]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1996 was probably the most unique and interesting weather year of the 1990s. Seems like the 11/11/95 hurricane force gust cutter kicked off the unusual run of weather. Figures that I didn’t get online until January 1997 when the  boring stretch of weather was just beginning. 

The cool 96 summer was like the historic 95-96 winter refusing to fully let go. 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, dWave said:

The cool 96 summer was like the historic 95-96 winter refusing to fully let go. 

The active East Coast summer and fall tropical cyclone tracks weren’t that far off from all the cold season snowstorm tracks.

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler air moved into the region overnight. Farther south in the Middle Atlantic region, temperatures again returned to the 90s. Philadelphia had a 92° high temperature, marking its 3rd consecutive 90° or warmer day. With a high temperature of 94°, Washington, DC registered its 9th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is Washington's longest heat wave since July 11-22, 2019 when the temperature reached 90° or above on 12 consecutive days.

The modest respite from the heat will be short-lived. Excessive heat will likely build over the Central Plains next week. Some of that heat will then expand eastward. The potential for the season's first heat wave in New York City is on the table for later next week. Philadelphia will very likely experience a continuation of its current heat wave. There, temperatures could rise into the middle or even upper 90s on one or two days.

The predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -4.93.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.342.

On July 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.627 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.331.

That was the 14th consecutive day the MJO was in Phase 1. The last time the MJO had a longer stretch in Phase 1 occurred during September 21-October 8, 2019 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. In addition, the MJO has been in either Phase 1 or Phase 2 for 34 consecutive days.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

 

[Rjay]

Lame

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80.5degs., or about 4degs. AN.

JUST FOR THE RECORD:  The GFS for the next 16 days is:  78.5/94.5 >>>> 86.5 = +8.5.     This takes us up to July 21.

72* here at 6am with thin overcast after some rain.        74* by 9am, mostly clear.       Just 78* by Noon, 85% RH.        82* by 2pm,67%.      Stayed this way for two hours, still 82* at 4pm.         Reached 86* at about 7:30pm, after sea breeze quit.

 

[weathermedic]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Lame

 

That was unexpected. What was the trigger for it?

[doncat]

That shower did clip me with 0.11".

[wdrag]

Commenting on the early Sunday morning activity NJ coast that had a few showers, even over w LI.  Nothing analyzed for a trigger that I could see in OKX/PHI early AFD's.  Only comment is the GFS. It is my favorite for convective potential (even the overnight operational HRRR missed this; SPC HREF -12z/4/00z/5 had an idea but too far inland). It (GFS) may be spatially a little too large but if it pumps up something,  best to evaluate and consider all the reasons why it won't happen, before dismissing. GFS was flagging this a little bit, back to the 12z/4 cycle (tropical tidbits previous runs verifying 12z/5). 

[wdrag]

The future briefly per use of some of the modeling info: Continues interesting for me/NYC forum. I think lots of rain... isolated ~4" by Thursday evening in a couple of spots of NNJ/se NYS? WPC 00z/5 products are starting to move in the right direction...increasing amounts but not everyone is getting more than 1/2" by Thursday night. WARM front is the focus and it's not only afternoon/evening, but some unleashing of potential during the overnight.  

Late today: possible isolated decent thunderstorm, I think mainly sw CT drifting toward LI. Trough reinforcement. 

Monday late afternoon evening: I believe the GFS convection. PWAT CAPE-KI will be increasing.   More attempted details tomorrow but GEFS has easy 2000+ sfc CAPE modeled near I78.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: Warm front should be quite active. PWAT increasing to between 1.75-2". Looks interesting to me. Wet microbursts (SVR) possible?  

Wednesday afternoon-evening: remnant warm front, PWAT-CAPE still up. Still some torrents around. 

Thursday: CAP 700-500MB may develop, but if not...then I think we tend to see convection primarily north of I80 (extreme nw NJ-se NYS-CT) but drifting southeast as the warm front to our south should have dissipated northeastward ahead of the subtropical low(see NHC X this morning and it's projected path).

Friday and weekend: Eventual 2+ PWAT and unloading torrents either from the subtropical low itself (track-timing uncertain to me as per operational cycles of GFS/EC/GGEM/UK), or the cold front developing eastward with the Great Lakes trough and focusing heavy convection late Saturday or Sunday? 

I hope this is a good week for those enjoying the benefits of convection.

706A/5

[SACRUS]

7/4

PHL: 92
TEB: 89
TTN: 89
LGA: 88
NYC: 87
EWR: 87
New Brnswk: 87
JFL: 85
ACY: 83
ISP: 83
BLM: 83