July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Agreed , sunnier than i thought and also impressive heat around.  tomorrow barring clouds arriving too early should see the hottest of the year so far.

 

forecasts for tomorrow are a bit lower because of a front nearby and incoming storms?

 

[winterwx21]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Getting a quick downpour 

Missed me a few miles to the east of course, as it dropped down through the Edison area.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe close to 60 days if we get a dry enough pattern with the mean ridge position nearby.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

 

yeah but EWR has the rep of being unusually hot, as does LGA, no one outside of our forum takes it seriously unless foliage plagued Central Park does it

 

[dWave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

didnt happen at JFK, I wonder why?

 

Sea breeze right at the immediate shore. Wind went south. Thought they might make it, saw 88 at one point.  94 here

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First 95 of the season at Newark with warm downslope flow. 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KEWR

tomorrow has a shot at 98/99 if convection holds off long enough. the launch pad will be high and 850's warm overnight

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

didnt happen at JFK, I wonder why?

 

First 90 of the season at JFK.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JFK&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah but EWR has the rep of being unusually hot, as does LGA, no one outside of our forum takes it seriously unless foliage plagued Central Park does it

 

The actual temperature in the sun at Central Park is probably close to EWR and LGA. But the deep shade where the sensor is runs a few degrees cooler than open areas like the Great Lawn. I am willing to bet the open areas of Central Park probably came close to 50 days reaching 90 in 2010.

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 93 here.

Current temp 91

[doncat]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah but EWR has the rep of being unusually hot, as does LGA, no one outside of our forum takes it seriously unless foliage plagued Central Park does it

 

EWR does pretty good now...its had some problems in the past. Of course we know about CP...Also LGA has had problems for a long time...Its departures are always so much greater than other stations.

[uncle W]

just got a little downpour with the Sun out...down to 81 now...

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

didnt happen at JFK, I wonder why?

 

JFK hit 90 @ 1:30 pm today.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, uofmiami said:

JFK hit 90 @ 1:30 pm today.

oh I missed it, must have happened just for a second lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First 90 of the season at JFK.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JFK&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

The actual temperature in the sun at Central Park is probably close to EWR and LGA. But the deep shade where the sensor is runs a few degrees cooler than open areas like the Great Lawn. I am willing to bet the open areas of Central Park probably came close to 50 days reaching 90 in 2010.

Yes I am claiming 2010 as my hottest summer on record based on how extreme the heat at JFK was- 11 days of 95+!  31 days of 90+!  3 days of 100+!

The 10 yr anniversary of that streak is coming up.  And the streak from 1966 too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

EWR does pretty good now...its had some problems in the past. Of course we know about CP...Also LGA has had problems for a long time...Its departures are always so much greater than other stations.

Yes I believe EWR is the most accurate now, but no one will use it for the city because it's in NJ lol.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I can see it. The Euro has +20C 850s nearby. 
 

 

 

Think we can get to 90 tomorrow too or will we be too close to the backdoor front?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

EWR does pretty good now...its had some problems in the past. Of course we know about CP...Also LGA has had problems for a long time...Its departures are always so much greater than other stations.

The LGA temperatures are in line with the surrounding area. But the departures have seen a big jump. So it could just be the temperatures in that part of the city rising the most relative to the 80s and 90s.

[SACRUS]

7/2

EWR: 95
LGA: 95
TTN: 94
TEB: 94
PHL: 93
NYC: 92
ACY: 92
New Brnswk: 92
BLM: 91
JFK: 90
ISP: 87

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The LGA temperatures are in line with the surrounding area. But the departures have seen a big jump. So it could just be the temperatures in that part of the city rising the most relative to the 80s and 90s.

lots of development around the airport over the years...down wind one story buildings became sky scrapers...

[uncle W]

if you look up records from 40 or more years ago NYC was close to LGA's Max/Min...next to Newark it mostly was one to four degrees cooler with some exceptions like 1977...

some examples...

6/25/1943.....99 in NYC...99 in LGA...100 in Newark...

7/14/1954...100 in NYC...99 in LGA...102 in Newark...

7/21/1977...104 in NYC...99 in LGA...102 in Newark...

8/05/1944...101 in NYC...99 in LGA...102 in Newark...

9/02/1953...102 in NYC 102 in LGA...105 in Newark...

[donsutherland1]

Today was the warmest day of the season so far in parts of the region. High temperatures included:

Albany: 93°
Baltimore: 91°
Bridgeport: 87°
Islip: 87°
New York City: 92°
Newark: 95°
Philadelphia: 93°
Washington, DC: 92°

Somewhat cooler air will return for the July 4 weekend. As a result, parts of the area could see thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be strong. However, the modest respite from the heat will be short-lived. Excessive heat will likely build over the Central Plains next week. Some of that heat will then expand eastward. The potential for the season's first heat wave in New York City is on the table.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change as July progresses, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +14.77.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.221.

On July 1, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.309.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

 

[weathermedic]

85 degrees at 10pm here. Probably end up with 77-78 degrees for the overnight low.

[doncat]

78° currently coming off a 92/66 split today.

[Rtd208]

Tomorrow morning we should have a good launching pad for temps.

Current temp is still 82 here.

[doncat]

Backdoor will be approaching tomorrow afternoon so maybe that limits any further temp rise after early afternoon.

[Rtd208]

13 minutes ago, doncat said:

Backdoor will be approaching tomorrow afternoon so maybe that limits any further temp rise after early afternoon.

Its possible. I think some areas could be at or approaching 90 by late morning so I think mid 90's is doable especially for the immediate NYC metro/NE NJ.

[Rtd208]

Since June 1st I have had 7 days where the temp has reached 90 or above here. I expect to add on at least another 4-5 days over the next week or so.

[doncat]

73° here currently...some urban stations still near 80°.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 75/DP 67/RH 76%

[Cfa]

75/68 here, low was 74, warmest of the year so far.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs., or 5.5degs. AN.

GFS for the next 15 days is 84.5, +7.5.

80* here at 6am!!!, hazy blue.   It was 84* at midnight.      83* by 9am, but mostly overcast already.    87* by Noon with thin overcast + sun.        88* at 12:20pm.    89* at 12:40pm.       Still holding 1 hour later at 89*/50%>>>Heat Iindex=92*.          Hit 90* at 4:30pm, up from 87*.     HI>>>94*      Back to 80* by 7pm.

 

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning - July 3.  NYC metro forum area. Plenty of southeastward slow moving convective afternoon or evening action next week in differential WAA, but each day, some parts will miss. 

(had 0.01 shower around 3-4P Thursday but nothing of the southward moving severe in eastern NYS last eve).

Saturday: if anything, associated with leftover RH and 500MB rough, forenoon-early afternoon showers or thunderstorms nw NJ developing southward (from Orange County NYS)

Sunday: if anything looks very late in the day and northwest of the city??

Monday: Better chance for torrents but modeling seems to delay till around or after 6P. PWAT comes back up to 1.6".  Of interest is that these storms (presuming they develop) will be moving about as fast as those of this Friday afternoon July 3, due to fairly decent nw flow at mid-upper levels.  Would not surprise to see iso SVR.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons: "provided there are lift features" (check surface isobars/winds when we get to the day and also modeled 850MB vorticity), should be some big stuff as EC/GFS modeled CAPE/KI go up (2000+J, KI near 36). Should be noted EC cape from 00z/3 has shifted to the northern edge of NYC metro (just n of NYC) while GFS is overhead. Still confident of activity developing overhead or to our north and drifting southeastward. These will be in a slow moving wind field and so potential exists for narrow bands of 1-3" rainfall each day, presuming storms develop in what should be a streamy environment of heat indices near 100F. I don't see a cap...though it might be close on Thursday. 

Friday and beyond:  not commenting since models diverge considerably on treatment of this weekends Gulf coast low (Fl Panhandle-Mississippi coast) becoming a subtropical development moving northeastward from the Carolina coast. GFS is yesterdays operational EC while todays (00z/3) operational EC and GGEM were further north and a bit slower than cycles from 00z/2. 

With no obvious cap evident next week, it's a matter of lift features, yielding bands of strong storms and daily "isolated" SVR in a generally warmer than normal increasingly large PWAT with 90s heat M-Thu (ne NJ -Morris-Hudson counties area). Where the best action... differs each day and no guarantee every day but to me it looks fairly potent, especially with, I think, a boundary lurking nearby (tonights coming back north but possibly reinforced by thunderstorm outflow to be quasi -stationary nearby into the middle of next week?).  651A EDT/3

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