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July 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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36 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
36 minutes ago, dryslot said:
No Captain Jack’s this weekend?

Kelly out of town till weds. Might go up and take boat out for spin Sunday.

Pool party for me tomorrow, Finally looks like it’s going to be a decent day with PC skies and temp right around 80, Get to try these new bad boys out too.

AD369400-1D14-4039-AA3F-02C6C9F75FCD.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Might have to light the wood stove down here. I can't imagine being on a beach.

I haven’t been paying attention... what are you guys talking about? 

High in the mid-80s today, hazy and sunny...and it’s a summer evening of 82/63 currently. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I haven’t been paying attention... what are you guys talking about? 

High in the mid-80s today, hazy and sunny...and it’s a summer evening of 82/63 currently. 

Overcast, 64 with a stiff breeze and I'm away from the coast

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good luck. Should be able to get a good payout.    Finding another Pit will be the tough part

Thanks.  It’s a sellers market for sure.  Hopefully one of the buyers will be for us.  We’re nit going to rush unnecessarily to a new one—want to be happy with where we land.  The good news in that is I might get to spend some time at Pit2, my happy place.

A10AF3ED-6CD5-4484-8960-3086E845C6CA.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Overcast, 64 with a stiff breeze and I'm away from the coast

Damn had no idea.  Mid-summer here.

Just looking at ORH...crazy how they woke up to 76F this morning and then spent the afternoon in the mid-60s.  The temperature now is lower than this morning’s dew point.  Don’t see that diurnal change often in summer.

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10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.  It’s a sellers market for sure.  Hopefully one of the buyers will be for us.  We’re nit going to rush unnecessarily to a new one—want to be happy with where we land.  The good news in that is I might get to spend some time at Pit2, my happy place.

A10AF3ED-6CD5-4484-8960-3086E845C6CA.jpeg

Are you moving out of ORH? I missed why? You just got there lol.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Getting chilly now, down to 67 and the breeze is kicking up. Some low clouds rolling down the mountains. 

Can see the backdoor front area on the BTV..  Just gets hotter the further NW you go.  

Looks like the picnic tables at 4000ft on Mansfield were hotter than most of SNE. 

DB422EC2-3457-48D8-828B-7043868A414A.thumb.png.d0206b172e740f461bd3eabf39f1f984.png

 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

People should always lock their doors. No matter how quiet or rural it is..it only takes one nut job. 

If you know my address, the backdoor is always unlocked though we tend to lock it when we go to sleep.  Big dog tells potential intruders to look elsewhere...

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can see the backdoor front area on the BTV..  Just gets hotter the further NW you go.  

Looks like the picnic tables at 4000ft on Mansfield were hotter than most of SNE. 

DB422EC2-3457-48D8-828B-7043868A414A.thumb.png.d0206b172e740f461bd3eabf39f1f984.png

 

Well we have also been socked in the clouds east of the Greens for most of the day.

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You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE...

SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N.  But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

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36 minutes ago, klw said:

Well we have also been socked in the clouds east of the Greens for most of the day.

Just a different type of day, only convective cumulous up here east of the Greens with plenty of sun.

Trying to prepare for the next heat wave up here, ha. 

77/63 now with a summer sky style sunset reflecting off some distant thunderstorms.... probably the few cells over by St J. or even in N.NH.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you moving out of ORH? I missed why? You just got there lol.

Yeah.  Looking to get out of the city life.  Not sure where we'll land.  I'm guessing Southborough or Westborough (my wife's from there).  I'm hoping we might wind up in Princeton, but I don't think that's especially likely.

Great interest rates in any case.

 

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14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah.  Looking to get out of the city life.  Not sure where we'll land.  I'm guessing Southborough or Westborough (my wife's from there).  I'm hoping we might wind up in Princeton, but I don't think that's especially likely.

Great interest rates in any case.

 

Not sure where you work but Woodstock and Pomfret in CT are nice

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE...

SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N.  But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

How 'bout  It's 73 in Morrisville Vermont and 63 in Southborough ma ?

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15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not sure where you work but Woodstock and Pomfret in CT are nice

Both beautiful towns, especially Pomfret. I've lived in Southborough for only a few years and it's great, though sleepy. Couple minute drive from Marlborough or Framingham if you need something to do.

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11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How 'bout  It's 73 in Morrisville Vermont and 63 in Southborough ma ?

Ha, I get what Tippy is saying but these model runs and past history this warm season would argue for more high-end heat for the NNE and Canadian regions. 

It's just constant torch across Ontario and Quebec for 2 weeks, pumping plumes of hot air almost to the Arctic Circle.  I bet BTV airport will be the prime spot for max temps going forward with this look.

gfs_T850a_eus_23.thumb.png.bee9b38561d66465c648769f90e8c012.png

There are 95-100F surface temps progged way up there in Canada at times in the long range.

gfs_T850a_eus_50.thumb.png.fea5fef8212e3ae8dfbc0f5863774124.png

 

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Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. 
 

The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression 

No contest or heat trophies like you said, but climo speaking Burlington can compress with the best of them given the high terrain on both sides of the larger valley.  Westerly flow off the 4-5k foot terrain of the Adirondacks into BTV would be like if Wachusett and the Worcester Hills were 4,000ft dropping air into Framingham.  Degree for degree aloft, BTV can put up numbers with the best of them.

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BTV is like 330ft. They can torch pretty well with the right flow. Same goes for the IZG/N. Conway area.

I think most understand the scalar vs anomaly differences, but these over the top shots have been so extreme even the scalar values are higher over NNE than SNE.

Maybe this one will play out differently, but the ec op has a couple of shots with the warmest mid level temps passing through NNE. As has been the theme, there's a remnant ULL turd in the punch bowl from the mid-atlantic into far SNE that's is just enough to keep the heat from being too extreme.

 

image.png

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No contest or heat trophies like you said, but climo speaking Burlington can compress with the best of them given the high terrain on both sides of the larger valley.  Westerly flow off the 4-5k foot terrain of the Adirondacks into BTV would be like if Wachusett and the Worcester Hills were 4,000ft dropping air into Framingham.  Degree for degree aloft, BTV can put up numbers with the best of them.

Oh ha right. 
might not have been the best elevation example. Not sure but the point stands 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BTV is like 330ft. They can torch pretty well with the right flow. Same goes for the IZG/N. Conway area.

I think most understand the scalar vs anomaly differences, but these over the top shots have been so extreme even the scalar values are higher over NNE than SNE.

Maybe this one will play out differently, but the ec op has a couple of shots with the warmest mid level temps passing through NNE. As has been the theme, there's a remnant ULL turd in the punch bowl from the mid-atlantic into far SNE that's is just enough to keep the heat from being too extreme.

 

image.png

Seasonal trend is certainly important… But I think in this next shot southern areas have a chance to pace. But  aside from the fact those scalar  products for the time frame would offer comparable or even hotter temperature metro west than N Vermont - wed/thu

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