Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

July 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s been more N and E of him. There has been a ton of rain around Winni.

Relative screw job all around me, but we hold the moisture well here so it’s not like we’re overly dry. I have the lowest total for the month including Belknap and Merrimack.

171964A3-384E-4432-BDE6-FE44CC455D3F.jpeg
EC049747-3784-4DB1-A280-8FA6C927D77E.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, dendrite said:

You're way ahead of me for this month. I'm only at 1.23". If you include those last few days of June though I'm at 4.72" for this stretch.

 

Math helps too. Looks like I missed a 0.90” in my calculation and didn’t put my 0.03” in from the other day. I’m at 2.16”.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, dendrite said:

Probably. It seems like once the sea ice volume and permafrost really started shitting the bed we have struggled getting cP airmasses down here in the heart of summer. Maybe it’s just a fluke, but we used to pull 30s and deep 40s in July and now it’s a struggle to even get into the 50s. 

In 22 Julys here, 1998-2019, monthly lowest minima has ranged from 37 to 46.  Lowest this month is 51 and I see little to no chance of getting any cooler before August.  My average at peak summer (e.g. now) is 77/55; we were about at that low this AM but should soar past the max.  Despite the lack of cool mornings, the month is running a bit under 2° AN.  Maxima are actually a bit BN while minima are running +4.1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tuesday morning may set record high min. Places like BDL, BOS , Moosup etc may not fall below 80. Now that would be special 

Monday also possibly.   We’ve gone from meh to special pretty quickly with no end in site....bring it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tuesday morning may set record high min. Places like BDL, BOS , Moosup etc may not fall below 80. Now that would be special 

BTV pulled it off in 2018, they might have done it twice even that year?

They were like 85F with a 20mph south wind at 3am... I remember the AFD that morning was talking about palm trees and Caribbean winds.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm actually pretty astounded by the 12z NAM grid... ( FOUS) depiction for Monday.

Seeing it put up hypsometric depths of 583 dm over KBOS/Logan is nothing shy of extraordinary - it may also be the highest I have ever seen that particular metric modeled for that location's geography and climate.  

The MET/machine numbers appear to be selling Monday short with 94 to 96 F across the breadth of guidance locales over SNE. 

That 240 to 260 deg wind direction under ceiling sigma RH values well < 50%, off a morning 12z T1 temperature already 26 C ( ...suggesting a low temperature not subtending 82 F - it helps the cross compare units ...) implied at typical warm climate nodes... with 20+ C at 850s  over head ... all told, probably sends the 16z to 21z temperatures over hundred without much problem.  I mean, Logan approaches 8pm later Monday under processed/mixing 583 dm thickness!! With a T1 to 32 C at both 18z and 00z, ... probably implies it was 34 C ( for a 39 C slope temp) ... at 4 to 6 pm... Paramters mount for memorable heat... after 6 hours of unadulterated open sky sun ... and wind direction pouring out of the city's dragon-anus ...there's no way it's less than 102 F ... circa 5:11 pm that afternoon over Rt 9 in Framingham, downtown cake--bake Boston or up and down I-95... 

It is also 48 to 60 hours away... so, we probably end up 97n .. once the model fills in the usual taint it can't see at this range... but, that's just the interpretation of that FOUS grid as is

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sun / mon night gonna be brutal around KBOS

Wouldn't be surprised if Sunday night ends up slightly warmer then Monday night in this area. I'm seeing more of W / WSW component to the surface flow Sun night compared to SW Mon night. Looking back at last weekend, the southerly component overnight def cooled this area off more than I would have expected during the nights.

Either way looking at mins in the U70s - L80s

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually pretty astounded by the 12z NAM grid... ( FOUS) depiction for Monday.

Seeing it put up hypsometric depths of 583 dm over KBOS/Logan is nothing shy of extraordinary - it may also be the highest I have ever seen that particular metric modeled for that location's geography and climate.  

The MET/machine numbers appear to be selling Monday short with 94 to 96 F across the breadth of guidance locales over SNE. 

That 240 to 260 deg wind direction under ceiling sigma RH values well < 50%, off a morning 12z T1 temperature already 26 C ( ...suggesting a low temperature no subtending 82 F - it helps the cross compare units ...) implied at typical warm climate nodes... with 20+ C at 850s  over head ... all told, probably sends the 16z to 21z temperatures over hundred without much problem.  I mean, Logan approaches 8pm later Monday under processed/mixing 583 dm thickness!! With a T1 to 32 C at both 18z and 00z, ... probably implies it was 34 C ( for a 39 C slope temp) ... at 4 to 6 pm... Paramters mount for member heat... after 6 hours of unadulterated open sky sun ... and wind direction pouring out of the city's dragon-anus ...there's no way it's less than 102 F ... circa 5:11 pm that afternoon over Rt 9 in Framingham, downtown cake--bake Boston or up and down I-95...

This is the Typhoon Tip gold we come for...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually pretty astounded by the 12z NAM grid... ( FOUS) depiction for Monday.

Seeing it put up hypsometric depths of 583 dm over KBOS/Logan is nothing shy of extraordinary - it may also be the highest I have ever seen that particular metric modeled for that location's geography and climate.  

The MET/machine numbers appear to be selling Monday short with 94 to 96 F across the breadth of guidance locales over SNE. 

That 240 to 260 deg wind direction under ceiling sigma RH values well < 50%, off a morning 12z T1 temperature already 26 C ( ...suggesting a low temperature no subtending 82 F - it helps the cross compare units ...) implied at typical warm climate nodes... with 20+ C at 850s  over head ... all told, probably sends the 16z to 21z temperatures over hundred without much problem.  I mean, Logan approaches 8pm later Monday under processed/mixing 583 dm thickness!! With a T1 to 32 C at both 18z and 00z, ... probably implies it was 34 C ( for a 39 C slope temp) ... at 4 to 6 pm... Paramters mount for member heat... after 6 hours of unadulterated open sky sun ... and wind direction pouring out of the city's dragon-anus ...there's no way it's less than 102 F ... circa 5:11 pm that afternoon over Rt 9 in Framingham, downtown cake--bake Boston or up and down I-95... 

It is also 48 to 60 hours away... so, we probably end up 97 and once the model fills in the usual taint it can't see this range... but, that's just the interpretation of that FOUS grid...

Agreed!

Barring something unforeseen (cloud debris, etc), legit chance (better than last weekend) of making a run for 100 for the first time since 7/21/11. As you laid out, there are reasons to suggest this could "over-perform" relative to guidance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is the Typhoon Tip gold we come for...

I'm jesus... 583 ??  hello -

I keep mental notes on this sort of thing, and this is the 3rd time this year we've seen 580 touched in the hypsometry values in that grid, and that ties us with 2018... then and now, I've never seen that three different times over Logan spanning the prior 30 someodd years I've been engaging with those grid numbers intimately with lotion and a flash-light...

Seriously though, and it's only 7/25 ...I'm wonder if I get four times and new personal record. 

But forget that.. .the Euro was over 22 C ...in fact almost 23.5 C in fractals Monday afternoon, and even went as high at 100 proper in its 2-meter for Tuesday ( interestingly enough....) but is only 96 at Logan Monday... but... I got to think that's correctable if the Euro's overall synopsis is correct in that 18z to 00z time range Monday afternoon.  Basically, it seems in concert with the NAM...

I just don't know why they are both holding 96 - interesting... May be, but the parametric layout supports 100 to 103 almost slam dunking -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Agreed!

Barring something unforeseen (cloud debris, etc), legit chance (better than last weekend) of making a run for 100 for the first time since 7/21/11. As you laid out, there are reasons to suggest this could "over-perform" relative to guidance. 

You know ... we may also want to point out that by "guidance" we mean MOS/machine shit... I mean, the other stuff I pointed out is technically 'in the guidance' - both the Euro's 00z and this 12z NAM for that matter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I'll be cheering on the most boring month ever with comfortable temps and dews so everyone can keep their windows open, the air refreshed, and COVID numbers hopefully down.

Same here....Can't even imagine the catastrophe of an Irma type storm heading toward the Southern US. Evacuations while Covid being everywhere down there, unfathomable...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

KBOS mid 80s on an east onshore wind.   That should reverse late afternoon.   While I wasn’t counting on 90 today-wind direction so far has been well modeled, a quick bump up to 90 before sunset in the wind shift is possible.  Off to the races tomorrow and beyond!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...