Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Areas affected...much of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379... Valid 172304Z - 180100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 379. Storms increasing in southwestern portions of the WW will pose a risk for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing, mature MCS has evolved across northern portions of the WW this afternoon. The leading edge of this MCS was demarcated by a stout outflow boundary located from near/just south of GFK westward to near N60. A surface trough extended south of N60 to near Y22. South and east of these boundaries, steep mid-level lapse rates and 70s F dewpoints were contributing to strong to extreme instability, and the influence of a subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming on the western edge of this pool of instability was contributing to new convective development along the surface trough. Over time, models (including CAMs/WoF and to a lesser extent coarser-grid operational guidance) indicate that these storms will grow upscale into forward-propagating linear segments and clusters that will pose a risk for large hail, damaging (perhaps significant) wind gusts, and a tornado or two. WW 380 has been issued south and east of the WW 379 to account for this potential scenario. North of the outflow, convective towers continue to deepen southeast of the Minot vicinity. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and appreciable cloud-bearing shear in the region, large hail is probable despite being rooted above the boundary layer. A couple of storms have developed appreciable mid-level rotational signatures, with should also increase the large hail risk and may contribute to isolated severe wind gusts. This threat should continue for at least a couple more hours. Pending convective trends, temporal extensions of WW 379 may be needed beyond the scheduled 01Z expiration. ..Weatherwiz; American WX Forum affiliate.. 07/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 48950191 49099867 49069587 48729519 47689533 47399629 47369785 46839896 46049980 45760116 45680263 45920334 46970329 48470252 48950191 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Portsmouth RI , .2 today, .3 Tuesday (missed the big rains NEWPORT got). .5 for the week and unfortunately for the whole month of July so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Only 0.01" here today as the heavier stuff stayed north. Soil is plenty moist however, though the high of 61 doesn't do much for what's growing there. Next 3-4 days will make up for that. And on another topic, misty drizzly cloudy days in the 60s with matching dews are probably about as common in October as in July - maybe one every couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs Tee it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs Danger ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Winds aloft shifting from the northwest to a westerly direction. This will result in some downsloping and mix down some drier air. As a result did reduce dew points into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 8 hours ago, S&P said: Portsmouth RI , .2 today, .3 Tuesday (missed the big rains NEWPORT got). .5 for the week and unfortunately for the whole month of July so far .27 yesterday only .9 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Winds aloft shifting from the northwest to a westerly direction. This will result in some downsloping and mix down some drier air. As a result did reduce dew points into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the interior That’s for today. Sunday and Monday look dewy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Danger ahead I want an 80+ dew 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: I want an 80+ dew It’s coming next couple days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s for today. Sunday and Monday look dewy Today is absolutely spectacular, deep blues, hot sun. Definitely a pool, adult beverage, grillin and chillin day. Outside movie on the projector after dinner. Good times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Saturday and Tuesday are my picks for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 My Euro 10 day, nice soueaster/Noreaster next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Tomorrow doesn't look that dewy. Probably 65-70 crap with 95-97 temps at the torch ASOS sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Already 3F warmer than yesterday's high, but still below 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Tomorrow looks like a scorcher..... good thing we have a cart for golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Tomorrow looks like a scorcher..... good thing we have a cart for golf. yeah... right, it's called EMT's ... to cart people off the fairway with eyes rollin' around and white foam oozing out of their trembling cooked skulls... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 The hotter you are tomorrow the lower the DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 68/66. Sun finally breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 68/66. Sun finally breaking out. Early morning fog burned off around 8 here now deep blues and getting hotter by the minute 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Mmm... I wonder what the model biases are wrt to specifically DP? The Euro DPs on Sunday are a suspiciously dry - just me ... Just a-priori synoptic existentialism ... we end up richer. Plus, academia teaches us that a 588+ DAM hydrostatic scaffolding supports higher hypsometric numbers ... then, compounding, we are already tracking a hypsometric plume that's successfully integrating a SW expulsion/EML kinetic air layer, together with continental biomist as it is ... those 57's of the Euro just come off as suspiciously dry to me... The NAM 'seems' like a better fit? Bit, that said...it could be too wet in its own rights. So as usual ...the art dictates the result ... how much or little does one use which guidance and/or morphology in mind synthesizes the right anticipation... That said... conceptually I'm not sure how we're deriving a hypsometric depth of 578+ dm with only 94 F ... It's like 94/76 or 100/66 ... take a pick - There's got to have some rich R vapor numbers in the ideal gas law lower to upper integral to do that... I can understand that the Euro may just be varying drier... but 57 to 60 over much of PA where it is 72-ish in the other guidance... that seems a little light. In any case the models ..the Euro is drier, no doubt. Where the 3KM NAM has a 68 to 73 DP air mass spread ubiquitously through NYS/PA/NJ/MA/VT/NH ... the Euro is tanning lawns... The NAM version interestingly also reflects the elevations changes rather nicely.. with d-slope regions at the lower end of that range, wavelet to the higher accordingly... It's either more right or high resolution garbage - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 68/66. Sun finally breaking out. Totally clear here by 9AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 So I’m doing the weekly yardwork and shrubs trimming and it’s balls deep in dews at 69-70. Where’s the dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So I’m doing the weekly yardwork and shrubs trimming and it’s balls deep in dews at 69-70. Where’s the dry? Probably around 2 to 5 pm, should have waited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 Quick comment on this 07/18/2020 00z operational Euro run ... That D8 is nothing shy of an astoundingly hot layout across everywhere ... W of 80W and S of the 50th parallel, across the CONUS! What does one's snark want to call that ... the largest ubiquitous layout 100 F readings since the late Ordovician ? My god... Pittsburgh to San Francisco is 20 to 28 C at 850 mb ... everywhere But, we notice... one way or the other... the model won't included NE - no shocker there... Anyway, there is a pretty strong signal in all the ensemble means to bulge the heights around Chicago from D6 to 8.5 in there ... I'm watching that. .. because the whispers of the "non-correlating summer teleconnectors" do offer some support for WAR-bridging into that region. But, ...probably owing to the extended time range more so than anything else, ... we see the usual hemispheric dance of first building the ridge nodes 90 to 80W and than immediately pulling/retrograding them back to the perennial N/A base-line that re-situates the ridge over the Rockies... which is code for that could just be losing the signal do to normalization/'beta' correction more than anything else... So we'll have to see where that goes... I'm also a bit leery of the Euro's front ... the GFS for that matter... The latter is understandable - it stretches everything embarrassingly W-E beyond D4's regardless of season, planet or galaxy... so, having 0 physical means to drive a cold front half way across the Atlantic is perfectly a viable solution to that thing... But, the Euro as quick as D4.5 has the flow paralleling the front by late Tuesday and rightfully... stalls the boundary for frontalysis or wobble right through the area ... I could almost see this correcting toward a wash, and having the heat from Sun/Mon settle out to just 90 through Thur before that aforementioned signal might portend another extreme .... perhaps notably related, the Euro did feature a couple few cycles in the lead up to this period that has more persistent heat signaled to 40 N ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So I’m doing the weekly yardwork and shrubs trimming and it’s balls deep in dews at 69-70. Where’s the dry? Late morning and BDL and ORH are 66°. We usually get the late morning bump as dew evaporates, but it’ll mix and dry out somewhat in the afternoon. Are you new here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... right, it's called EMT's ... to cart people off the fairway with eyes rollin' around and white foam oozing out of their trembling cooked skulls... It’ll be hot, no doubt. But hydrate, sunscreen, hat... we’ll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Late morning and BDL and ORH are 66°. We usually get the late morning bump as dew evaporates, but it’ll mix and dry out somewhat in the afternoon. Are you new here? But it was promoted as a dry heat weekend. Folks sure don’t know their weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But it was promoted as a dry heat weekend. Folks sure don’t know their weather 84/63 at BDL right now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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