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July 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's time to put the checkered flag to summer. This garbage is almost summer. Fake summer...not real

Lol we have 8 weeks of summer weather left. You will get your HHH this weekend ,heat indexes over 100. Just dont go to Misquamicut as RI pulled the plug on the state beaches 25% parking occupancy,  cuz ya know beaches are super spreaders and all.

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol we have 8 weeks of summer weather left. You will get your HHH this weekend ,heat indexes over 100. Just dont go to Misquamicut as RI pulled the plug on the state beaches 25% parking occupancy,  cuz ya know beaches are super spreaders and all.

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The beaches thing is ridiculous. Was trying to go camping this weekend but seems like many places are all booked. Just have to lay in the yard naked I guess

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol we have 8 weeks of summer weather left. You will get your HHH this weekend ,heat indexes over 100. Just dont go to Misquamicut as RI pulled the plug on the state beaches 25% parking occupancy,  cuz ya know beaches are super spreaders and all.

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We were thinking g of booking a spot at Andrea’s.   You get to use their restrooms, menu service, reserved space

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Extraordinarily hot week for Boston is plausible if not likely in that operational Euro synoptic evolution...  The only thing preventing a daily high of 91 to 99 every day from Saturday through Thursday (and bias the higher end...) would be impossible to pin down swaths of cloud perturbation/ convection debris ... which as per that run, most days are > 70% uninterrupted insolation.  Otherwise, that is one of the cleanest big heat looks I've seen along and N of the 40th latitudes from Chicago to Boston...

With four out of those six days mentioned having 850 mb temperatures exceeding 19C ...  Sunday in particular has a shot at 100 degrees in my estimation. If those parametrics verify ... climo rotisseries from around HFD to Metrowest of Boston cook. Period. Particularly if that BL wind can avergae > 240 degrees ...Logan itself will bathe in Boston city proper's dumpster fire smoke...  22.5 C at 850mb compressing down slope out of the Capital District? I guarantee you, those posting machine numbers of 94 to 96, unwittingly ( or wittingly..) spinning this as merely having HIs of 100 this weekend would be doing this set up a disservice...  I could see that making 101 or 102 ..DP depending.. I mean if we pig's bum our way to 75 DP ...we probably cap at proper human core temps 

The GGEM is lot, lot colder however ... with synoptics clocking in with a 100.9 and 101.9 respectively...  

The GFS is, as expected, the cooler of all three... But even it has a nice SW/W heat release signal at 850mbs...

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All three models have an expulsion of BL to 800 mb EML/kinetically charged air layer coming across at perfect timing...12z Sunday -00z Monday time frame,... with the GFS showing a NE CONUS regionally engulfing 850 mb maximum right at 8pm Sunday evening from Ohio to Maine and along the coastal plane down to D.C.... That means that the mixing level penetrated through that level, so... even with it's max T's looking more 20C-ish at 850, it's probably getting hotter than that adiabat because the BL is taller than 850 - not uncommon to stretch things in higher heating potential and this is one of those set ups...  

Caveat emptor: clouds as mentioned... This is a bit of a different look in transport...  The 500 mb deep layer hydrostatic layout is rather flat-ish looking ... It's flat, but stable nonetheless, with even the GFS finally stopping its antics with introducing permutations in the flow that rasps the heat from ever getting NE of Pittsburgh.   *BUT* that west middle tropospheric flow with SW winds transporting heat/DPs up underneath does offer a subtle MCS instability look so... that'll be lingering.   

This should almost be extracted and used as a thread ... I'd like to see the 12z suite... because if this looks to repeat, this could be memorable hot day in terms of regional envelopment...Where PHL-LGA-BOS-PWD all have chances simultaneously at 100 F on Sunday ...oh 4pm ... and it's somewhat rare to see that.  It would be pretty historic and may in fact be anyway if all these sites 98.9 anyway...   What is interesting, also ... is that this is back to the original signal from six or seven days ago, when the Euro put up this sort of thing.  It's been pretty stubborn... the other models have really invented more reasons not to get hot... The 500 mb height layout has slowly modulated flatter, but the 850s and other lower tropospheric parameters/synoptics seemed to have returned... Maybe the flattening of the 500 mb sent the GFS/GGEM looking for cooler kernels...

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This should almost be extracted and used as a thread ... I'd like to see the 12z suite... because if this looks to repeat, this could be memorable hot day in terms of regional envelopment...Where PHL-LGA-BOS-PWD all have chances simultaneously at 100 F on Sunday ...oh 4pm ... and it's somewhat rare to see that.  What is interesting, also ... is that this is back to the original signal from six or seven days ago, when the Euro put up this sort of thing.  It's been pretty stubborn... the other models have really invented more reasons not to get hot... The 500 mb height layout has slowly modulated flatter, but the 850s and other lower tropospheric parameters/synoptics seemed to have returned... Maybe the flattening of the 500 mb sent the GFS/GGEM looking for cooler kernels...

High quality post, Tip.  Thanks for that one.  Maybe it is deserving of its own heat thread.  Looks like we've got another round of high end heat coming.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

High quality post, Tip.  Thanks for that one.  Maybe it is deserving of its own heat thread.  Looks like we've got another round of high end heat coming.

thanks! :) I mean to get more confidence - let's get the 12z consistency then pull that trigger?  

I mean shit...it's an important phenomenon .. at least to me.  I've always thought that deep cold and high heat were just as ominous and threatening to civility and should be recognized in the fab four:  lightning, floods, tornadoes and hurricanes [ big heat, arresting cold ] ... 

You know, I remember in the late 1970s through the 1980s, the early early days of mass media weather's real meteoric rise...they used to have this "Stockman's Advisory" ...it was available everywhere, but more frequently and notably it was implemented where ( duh ...) there was livestock and farming concerns... But, in Chicago, ...1995, that became one of the more deadly attributable weather events in history, with many people dying from heat exposure - why the f is this not a thing?   

But...hell...it's probably not so much an issue in either sense, heat or cold, given to modern environmental controls and ability to see it coming ...etc... so whatever.  It's still a notable thing if it's worthy yeah.  

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wow... I was focused in the nearer terms ( through the end of the mid range...) as I should but still...that extended GFS from the 00z ( D9/10 ...) actually makes the Sonoran/W heat ejection lending to Sunday/Monday's heat look like a little brother... Wow... nearing 28 C passing over Lake Superior en route to NE on a WNW trajectory would probably be all-time absurdity territory... 

But, ...it's D9 so - ha

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looked like the 6z GFS was kinda feeling the press from the north after Monday. Still fairly hot for SNE through midweek, but more of the climo gradient as you head up into NNE. 

Oh ...the flat 500 mb flow at our latitude makes all of this uneasy and precarious... 

I see/admit that right off... I want to see the 12z for continuity because ... I could see this just like not happening - zero circulation orientation latitude to play with on this thing isn't sending confidence shimmering through the event prospects...no.. 

But, if the Euro's allowed to verify...

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Fwiw .. 12z NAM is pretty hot on Saturday PHL-BOS... with T1 of 31C in PHL offering a plausible 2-meter slope to 36C down that way, and 33C Boston ... we're already as of Saturday in the 92 to 97 in F standing outside the Chamber Of Commerce/City Hall in those cities at least in the NAM  ;) 

But here's the thing... that's almost antecedently required for Sunday to have a shot at 100... Probably PHL to NYC makes it anyway...but we need that 93 with maturing 850 slab moving overnight into Sunday morning...such that there's a high launch Sunday morning... 

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Yeah..the model run ( Euro's) owing to the precarious nature of trying to run a heat wave through here when we are literally right on the fence of the westerlies like that... 

In this run, we don't get the heat wave.  We do get the one hot day in Sunday...   That said, I'd be leary of this returning in future guidance...  It's been waffling anyway and this run is almost keeping that discontinuity ...continuous - if that makes any sense. 

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