MaineJayhawk Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 A little more breeze and it'd be a convection oven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 New Orleans showing how the dews are done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Dew Orleans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather_or_Not said: I have done 90 July runs in the Worcester area since 2015, and the average DP has been 61.75, about what it is today. That's not bad, but it's not crisp COC air, which is what DIT is saying. The DP's ought to be in the mid-50s to be a COC candidate. Also, we don't need to hold ourselves to Louisiana or Miami standards with a DP chart. When the DP is at or around 60, it is definitely on the muggy side. I know this from running. When the weather is 70/60 it feels muggier because of the relative humidity factor. I can't clear sweat on my body. About 20% of the runs had a DP 55 or lower, which is the gold standard. The difference between 55 and 60 is significant, and therein lies the COC weather. Sounds like it's muggy for runners, but for the rest of us it's pretty nice out.. now 75/59 I thought I was not going under 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Almost a chill in the air, I may have to grab a gilf’s sweater 74F I've donned my shawl today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 69/61. Pretty dam nice and crystal clear now. When your Davis Dew is only 61...time for the suits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Euro heat: Saturday 12z has ~17 C at 850 mbs with a PGF orienting the flow from the WSW... It's W at 500 mb ...so is deep tropospheric flow. RH is less than 50% at typical cloud hgts so it's good bet for a very warm day that maximizes... Also, there is some indication in the isobaric pressure pattern for a lee side thermal trough along the interior coastal plain from SW Maine to NJ .. That's usually a 'smoking gun' ( pun intended...) for maximizing the BL ... because that means lift/buoyancy is lowering the sfc pressure, and given the other synoptic parameters the only source capable of doing that would be the heat. So, it's probably 85 or 86 in ORH at 3pm and 93 or 94 at ASH-FIT-BED-HFD ... Sunday dawns set up for close to redic heat. In fact, even at a slightly lesser realization on Saturday than that interpretation above, ..say 84 to 90... Saturday night is high confidence very high night time low. This has been the verification bias ...for about 10 years actually.. but, this season in particular, we're doing above normal stretches on nightimes anyway... Still high sun angle roasting the ground and moving a kinetically charged EML right over top over night isn't exactly sending shivers down anyone's spine ...That's probably 76 for a low at Logan and 81 at LGA... something like that... Then, we we might see 90 by 9 on Sunday morning. 850mb/EML conveyor swaths over the region with continued < 50% RH at 700/500 mbs suggests open sky in a superb heating potential through mid day.. Bottom line is above 90... and probably 94-99 with 88 at ORH or even 90 there... Monday dawns with a similar scenario and we probably race to 90...but, baraclinic zone and whiskey cool front timing for late day probably puts cloud debris and convection in the way of maximizing highs... SO, 88 to 94 steam bath with some DP gathering ahead... Anyway, heat wave signaled.... This is pretty much all that's left of that historic heat signaled 5 days ago for that time range... The other models are not as emphatic...and in fact, the 00z operational Euro was still the more amplified version compared to the EPS mean - which I haven't seen for the 12z ...but, if it should decide to edge back a little toastier than perhaps we can start to plan on a heat wave. Being inside of day 5 ...and having the day 4 and 5 be reasonable extrapolations from day 3 offers some limited confidence. Not sure it qualifies for excessive per se...but it that Sunday has the best shot. One caveat emptor: The west wind at 500 mb ... have to watch for MCS/debris at anytime running along flow there. Probably silly to comment much beyond that D6 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro heat: Saturday 12z has ~17 C at 850 mbs with a PGF orienting the flow from the WSW... It's W at 500 mb ...so is deep tropospheric flow. RH is less than 50% at typical cloud hgts so it's good bet for a very warm day that maximizes... Also, there is some indication in the isobaric pressure pattern for a lee side thermal trough along the interior coastal plain from SW Maine to NJ .. That's usually a 'smoking gun' ( pun intended...) for maximizing the BL ... because that means lift/buoyancy is lowering the sfc pressure, and given the other synoptic parameters the only source capable of doing that would be the heat. So, it's probably 85 or 86 in ORH at 3pm and 93 or 94 at ASH-FIT-BED-HFD ... Sunday dawns set up for close to redic heat. In fact, even at a slightly lesser realization on Saturday than that interpretation above, ..say 84 to 90... Saturday night is high confidence very high night time low. This has been the verification bias ...for about 10 years actually.. but, this season in particular, we're doing above normal stretches on nightimes anyway... Still high sun angle roasting the ground and moving a kinetically charged EML right over top over night isn't exactly sending shivers down anyone's spine ...That's probably 76 for a low at Logan and 81 at LGA... something like that... Then, we we might see 90 by 9 on Sunday morning. 850mb/EML conveyor swaths over the region with continued < 50% RH at 700/500 mbs suggests open sky in a superb heating potential through mid day.. Bottom line is above 90... and probably 94-99 with 88 at ORH or even 90 there... Monday dawns with a similar scenario and we probably race to 90...but, baraclinic zone and whiskey cool front timing for late day probably puts cloud debris and convection in the way of maximizing highs... SO, 88 to 94 steam bath with some DP gathering ahead... Anyway, heat wave signaled.... This is pretty much all that's left of that historic heat signaled 5 days ago for that time range... The other models are not as emphatic...and in fact, the 00z operational Euro was still the more amplified version compared to the EPS mean - which I haven't seen for the 12z ...but, if it should decide to edge back a little toastier than perhaps we can start to plan on a heat wave. Being inside of day 5 ...and having the day 4 and 5 be reasonable extrapolations from day 3 offers some limited confidence. Not sure it qualifies for excessive per se...but it that Sunday has the best shot. One caveat emptor: The west wind at 500 mb ... have to watch for MCS/debris at anytime running along flow there. Probably silly to comment much beyond that D6 ... CPC FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 no question warm period coming, just hoping is 90/70 and not 98 with 75 dews.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: no question warm period coming, just hoping is 90/70 and not 98 with 75 dews.. You didn't ask me ..buut.. it's hard to set a 98 over a 75 at our latitude ... We kinda need it to be June 15 to July 1... otherwise we aren't getting quite enough solar input to heat a theta-e rich column to that temperature. We can...but it takes a lot of help. Not saying much ..no. If it's 96 over 69 your still jammin your head up a pig's ass just sayn'. I don't think it's ever been 100 over 75 around here ? Will or someone with stats might know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 One last attempt before bridge jumping commences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CPC FTW mm..maybe yeah. The Euro's inside of 5 ...and even 4 with Saturday being 72 -84 hours at max heat, and that model's rep/verification is pretty typically harder to beat. That said, it has taken some hits in the last year... Again, again again...it's an outlier with the Canadian and GFS more pedestrian ... Hot either way, ...a matter of how much so. Even in these lesser models it may be 93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You didn't ask me ..buut.. it's hard to set a 98 over a 75 at our latitude ... We kinda need it to be June 15 to July 1... otherwise we aren't getting quite enough solar input to heat a theta-e rich column to that temperature. We can...but it takes a lot of help. Not saying much ..no. If it's 96 over 69 your still jammin your head up a pig's ass just sayn'. I don't think it's ever been 100 over 75 around here ? Will or someone with stats might know.. One of those days in 2018 was close. Maybe Jul 95 and Hot Saturday too? I’d have to look up the data when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 We usually (well can) start those days with dews around/above 70 but then strong mixing results in drier air being mixed to the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: One of those days in 2018 was close. Maybe Jul 95 and Hot Saturday too? I’d have to look up the data when I get home. Yeah..I think that might be right at the edge - those events perhaps... Even over those Iowa cornfields in 2011 with that overcooked ham air mass and those 84 F DPs they were only putting up 98 ...'course that's a HI of 120 million but... The juggernaut heat events tend to be lower DPs.. but not always.. If the day dawns 80 at Logan with a west drift and 22 or 23C at 850 and nothing on satellite denser than llv bio mist clear to Chicago, you might make 101 over 73 by accident of a commercial air liner's jet plume wafting past the tarmac..ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We usually (well can) start those days with dews around/above 70 but then strong mixing results in drier air being mixed to the sfc Yeah 2011 had that 95/75 day on 7/21 and then the prefrontal trough came through like a dryline and we shot up to 100+/65 the next afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 80/56 This feels pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah..I think that might be right the edge though... Even over those Iowa cornfields in 2011 with that overcooked ham air mass and those 84 F DPs they were only putting up 93 ...'course that's a HI of 120 million but... The juggernaut heat events tend to be lower DPs.. but not always.. If the day dawns 80 at Logan with a west drift and 22 or 23C at 850 and nothing on satellite denser than llv bio mist clear to Chicago, you might make 101 of 73 by accident of a commercial airliner's jet plume wafting past the tarmac..ha Yeah I think you need to be along the shores of the Persian Gulf to see those exotic 110/80 combo type airmasses and even then the dews drop off fairly quickly once you get away from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I think you need to be along the shores of the Persian Gulf to see those exotic 110/80 combo type airmasses and even then the dews drop off fairly quickly once you get away from the water. in any case... might be a fun nerd spreadsheet to put up the ranks of T/TD spread ... I'd do it with my shimmering life and all but heh, I don't have the data to begin with - it's an hunch that as the DPs rise... the tops start to lop but I wonder what the greatest combo was. Probably hot saturday in '75? but wasn't there a pig bum's air mass in the 1940s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve already crushed him in this battle. Anyone using public radio charts in a dew point discussion never even stepped foot on the battlefield. Oops BDL 59, well your predictions of weeks and weeks of no dews below 60 lasted a day, great job Nostradumbass 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: Sounds like it's muggy for runners, but for the rest of us it's pretty nice out.. now 75/59 I thought I was not going under 60? Imagine running in summer and sweating. Hard to believe, especially for morning runners when dews are always the highest. Its about as a comfortable July day as possible here near the big pond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 80/56 This feels pretty good. I wouldn't go for a run if I was you as you might sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: WPRZ?? Lol Here’s actual science What in gods name is this? No link either, the last paragraph is lolastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oops BDL 59, well your predictions of weeks and weeks of no dews below 60 lasted a day, great job Nostradumbass Oops.,as we correctly forecast not below 60. I notice you didn’t use your local dew but instead a Mac many many miles to the NW . Noted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 On 7/12/2020 at 10:13 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Sure the coast could be 75-80 for a day or so . But inland 80’s to near 90 before torch comes back Thursday on. Dews never drop below 60’s On 7/12/2020 at 10:17 AM, CoastalWx said: I could see a couple of days cooler than that, inland. On 7/12/2020 at 10:21 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Noted While we are talking Tolland Stem... let the record show it appears @CoastalWx was right on a day or two under 80F for the interior. That Stem graphic above only has a max of 77F so far. Most interior SNE seems to be 70s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: While we are talking Tolland Stem... let the record show it appears @CoastalWx was right on a day or two under 80F for the interior. That Stem graphic above only has a max of 77F so far. Most interior SNE seems to be 70s. We tried to tell 'em. Not like I stuck my neck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: While we are talking Tolland Stem... let the record show it appears @CoastalWx was right on a day or two under 80F for the interior. That Stem graphic above only has a max of 77F so far. Most interior SNE seems to be 70s. Noted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 yeah, maxed out at 77.9 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Best contrarian indicator is DIT’s forecasts during winter warmups and summer “cool” downs . It’s money in the bank. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We tried to tell 'em. Not like I stuck my neck out there. I was just hoping he’d go no shame and quote 80F at BDL right after telling Steve not to use those observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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