Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Nice cool 63F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: True story. We have a 12 year old golden retriever. When she was around 2 our daughter was 11. We were vacationing on a lake in NH near the ME line. It was a hot day and she went out on the lake on a big tire raft. The dog decided she was out too far and swam to her, put the rope tow line her mouth, and swam her to shore. I have a photo of it somewhere...an amazing moment! Our first golden used to swim to the outside of people to force them back towards the shore. Sadly he would also swim right at people "to rescue them" and just paw them up. His instincts were good even if the execution was lacking. As a follow up to last evening's storm: on my drive in today there were a large number of big sized branches down and a couple of small split trees about two or three miles up the road from our house. So while we had little wind, it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 New heat pump installed yesterday. anxious to try it out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Nice rain yesterday. .90" Finally some water in the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker. Good...I prefer to stay within the 585-591dm height range. This is a pretty solid look for some ridge roller MCS activity. Also a really good look for some nasty squall lines. Obviously there are numerous details that would have to be ironed out but if you're looking at some severe shots, synoptically this offers some positive vibes. I would hope this could flag some potential for EML advection but would love to see more of what the H7 configuration looks like. It seemed like some EML shots want to eject our way but they become quite muted pretty quickly as they traverse into the upper-Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 69/67 after a low of 64.8°. Finally getting the fog to dissipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: EC/UK and NAM/GFS are very different. EC/UK further east and soaker. NAM/GFS into NJ. There is a naked swirl well to the WSW of the center, but I wonder if a new one pops near the convection. Seeing as you were begging for additional insights ... -- the 'swhirl' will comes up the coast more intense than expected. invariably, the models will not handle the physics and get sort of mottled or confused with the land being nearby and improperly fusing drier air source they'll fumble around and phase smear it between two cyclone types... which then assesses the system larger and less coherently intenser core-ward. Meanwhile, the swirl crosses a developmental threshold that the models and humans never see coming...whatever that is - and it's relative to the super synoptic metrical layout when/where/strength that happens. Once that happens, it leaps to 70 mph and they hurricane warnings to Long Island when no one around land is even seeing winds gusting over 45 mph... -- or, weaker, ...because it's proximity to land and colder water N of the Del Marva will mean the models and interpreters improperly fuse these cooler sources and thus, fumble around and smear it between two cyclone types while biasing too strong due to the don't-ask-don't-tell over-sell PR tactic that TPC employs but doesn't admit to M.O. whenever Seagulls fly within 500 miles of any coast... -- the NAM typically has maintained a NW bias with western Atlantic cyclones. I dunno know if that's true with tropical/barotropic physically powered phenomenon, or, if it is still true.. but, that was the case through the 2010s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: 69/67 after a low of 64.8°. Finally getting the fog to dissipate. Same. Was out at 630 and it was dense over the pond. 0 vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Today is open sky dead wind stifle ... it's 83/74 at 9am here ... with leafs on trees still like solidified in amber. You can hear the sun's unadulterated insolations ...sounds a bit like microwaving sunday's roast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker. New England gon' New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 55 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: New heat pump installed yesterday. anxious to try it out today Try the dry setting if it has one. Its incredible how much water drains outside mine when it's in dry mode. They can regulate the compressor and blower to maximize dehumidification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Good...I prefer to stay within the 585-591dm height range. This is a pretty solid look for some ridge roller MCS activity. Also a really good look for some nasty squall lines. Obviously there are numerous details that would have to be ironed out but if you're looking at some severe shots, synoptically this offers some positive vibes. I would hope this could flag some potential for EML advection but would love to see more of what the H7 configuration looks like. It seemed like some EML shots want to eject our way but they become quite muted pretty quickly as they traverse into the upper-Midwest. Obviously it's a long ways off, but it is kind of fun to play around with the online hysplit model to get a read on airmass advection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Op runs? Lol. There’s no door . Toward mid week ridging should build back in which may signal a warm up; the Climate Prediction Center has placed southern New England in an excessive heat outlook for late next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, radarman said: Obviously it's a long ways off, but it is kind of fun to play around with the online hysplit model to get a read on airmass advection I haven't used that site in a while. Kinda forgot about it actually. Need to play around with it again but i find it confusing to figure out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Yeah there is some door potential with the ridge axis just a bit west of optimum delivery. Probably one of these things where for a day or two it's torrid, cool off to 70s coast 80s inland...and then another plume moves in. Looks dam nasty for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker. Triple digits cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker. Yup... I was musing with PF the other night how invariably ...this spring into early summer ( so far ..) has been an exercise in futility getting 'biggish heat' looks inside D6. In fact, it has not happened yet successfully - speaking to SNE... Yet the modeling in that time frame would have driven humanity to a special consortium summit for the heads of climate impact regarding the death of civility as we know it... Brian and I were speculating that there's something in the back ground physics that's opening open up/exposed by the loss of nearer term offsets that do seem to get smoothed out -either by model convention/design, or perhaps time... Basically, either removes the nearer term offsets and some underpinning signal expands the ridging... like canvased tendency underneath all else That said, we did see the Euro do this on a D7/8 chart last week with a BD and it disappeared within a cycle or two ...so there is some precedence, within that general failed framework, to still oversell BDs by the Euro... It's really like layered errors: too hot of a synopsis in general, is offset by a fictitious BD... when neither happens in lieu of the pedestrian reality. I can see why the Euro is BD manufacturing though ...the trough in the nearer term ( D4 and 5 ..) residually limps and fills its way into the Maritimes, but has just enough mechanical power to NVA some mass build-up over the region...then, geophysical biases kick in and the model can't resist. Here's the the thing... the model(s) et al are subtly introducing flies in the pure hot ointment comparing yesterday's purity, anyway. And that's usually how the shirking starts... We could abolish the BD and still end up pedestrian and forgettable for the usual erosion/corrections anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Op runs? Lol. There’s no door . Toward mid week ridging should build back in which may signal a warm up; the Climate Prediction Center has placed southern New England in an excessive heat outlook for late next week and beyond. Maybe, maybe not. The GFS goes 7/1911 in the extended with 5+ days of 95-100+ in SNE. Lalaland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe, maybe not. The GFS goes 7/1911 in the extended with 5+ days of 95-100+ in SNE. Lalaland though. I do think we’ll see a couple days of 95-100 . We may get a weak fropa or sonething to trim it a bit, but there’s no denying that beast heat coming East . Maybe it’s not sustained, but it’s coming in some form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Gee I wonder where the river valleys are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Could also be a scenario where the modeling et al just rushed it ... which I hate. I've actually seen summers(winters) that persistently put up delicious menu patterns in the extended, and then it finally happens in the first week of September ...or, the last week of March...as some jipped version as though it was a bate-switch the whole season at hand...ahahaha. The thing finally gives you a taste of what it was lying about, but still smacks your face by doing it when heat or cold is seasonally muted for being so lagged - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 minute ago, klw said: Gee I wonder where the valleys are? Valleys ? nah... that's a brain scan/neuro-tapestry of Gaia ...and is she pissed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes, how did it save you? Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 I'm also wondering if this local time span ...the last three days worth, of model cycles is 'thermally sloshing' ... I've just noticed that the 00z runs look a little hotter and less subtly muted than the 12z cycles, and the difference is that either grid initialization is at the other end of the diurnal cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 69/67 after a low of 64.8°. Finally getting the fog to dissipate. Cleared off quickly after yesterday's TS and dropped the low here to mid 50s - the dews are just now rolling in. First "real" TS of the year, though the fairly frequent lightning never got closer than 2 miles. Probably half of the 0.47" RA came 5:10-5:15 PM, by far the highest rate I've seen for a while. My wife was driving home from Farmington during the heaviest and our Forester briefly hydroplaned, which was scary and led to her pulling over into the nearest safe place to wait out the RA++. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house. It’s amazing the a few miles from Boston I leave my doors unlocked while you in the country have break ins. What’s going on there? hot and humid today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 51 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s amazing the a few miles from Boston I leave my doors unlocked while you in the country have break ins. What’s going on there? hot and humid today! If Southbridge, MA is “the country” then my idea of what “country” is is wayyyy off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If Southbridge, MA is “the country” then my idea of what “country” is is wayyyy off. Im almost in Woodstock in the outskirts, I can throw a rock and hit Woodstock so not in the center of town. Might have been that UCONN student, I got a good look at the guy and I swear it was him. He was in Kevins town and in Thompson so he was working his way up here before going back to Penn. Storms yesterday looked ominous but we got 9 in and they dissipated anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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