July 2020 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, that's a pretty convincing graphic.

252 hrs is convincing ...?

[moneypitmike]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

252 hrs is convincing ...?

It’s as much a lock as one of Paul’s severe threats and James ‘78 redux dreams.

[powderfreak]

A lone ranger this afternoon... heavy rain and lightning just east of the Worcester Range on the horizon.  Stowe Mountain Club course in the foreground, fairway at 2,000ft.

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

252 hrs is convincing ...?

It might be a concern... but the overall picture is warm to hot and humid relative to normal in the future.  The later stages of the operational models show some FROPA's mixed with above normal temperatures.  It might not be a record torch, but it'll be uncomfortable for a period of time here.

 

[Bostonseminole]

yeah, I thought posting 252hr charts where frowned upon in this advance weather forum?

[Bostonseminole]

anything severe tomorrow late PM? Looks like a nice line of storm drops down from NH into MA.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, I thought posting 252hr charts where frowned upon in this advance weather forum?

Why would it be frowned upon ?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It might be a concern... but the overall picture is warm to hot and humid relative to normal in the future.  The later stages of the operational models show some FROPA's mixed with above normal temperatures.  It might not be a record torch, but it'll be uncomfortable for a period of time here.

 

Yeah I don’t think any of that is  convincing frankly ... Seeing heat domes and ridges in that time range all season long and push comes to shove we started eroding them back southwest with buckshot excuses to do so. Maritime unrelenting permanent neg  fixture… But If this time is different eventually one of them is gonna work out I guess we got a week to f! It up or get it done.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Interesting piece but I would love the mets to chime in on this,  @Typhoon Tip comes to mind because of his study of global teleconnections.

https://www.sciencealert.com/weather-data-shows-extreme-heat-and-rain-is-happening-more-often-and-lasting-longer

[Bostonseminole]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why would it be frowned upon ?

 

Saw it was ensembles now, all good post away

[ineedsnow]

0z Euro with the extreme  heat next week.. 100 plus?

[Damage In Tolland]

Race fans.... start your engines

Details...

The oppressive humidity is here to stay, with no truly dry air in
the forecast through the end of the forecast period

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Race fans.... start your engines

Details...

The oppressive humidity is here to stay, with no truly dry air in
the forecast through the end of the forecast period

Swell. Looks like summer for a bit.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

0z Euro with the extreme  heat next week.. 100 plus?

Getting exotic near d10 again. Tossed. Will be hot at times, but it’s been tossing 100s around like Halloween candy lately.

[kdxken]

Summer-like warmth and humidity takes control of our weather today
and persists through the weekend. A few showers/thunderstorms will
be possible each day with some heavy downpours, but much of this
time will also feature dry weather especially on Thursday when heat
and humidity peak. A stronger system late Friday into Saturday
brings heavy rain and potential flooding issues.

hope we minimize the rain

[dendrite]

GFS has some BD action next week to give some brief breaks from the humidity. We’ll see how it goes, but warm to hot and humid will be the theme regardless.

[CoastalWx]

EPS is dam hot too. It does look like it cools down a bit in the 11-15 day, but probably still very warm at least.

[Ginx snewx]

Fugly 

[weatherwiz]

That's some pretty strong agreement on the evolution of the pattern moving forward. It's going to get pretty damn hot/humid...but that doesn't necessarily mean we can't or won't see a day or two of relief. Regardless, after what's been a brutal summer in the convective department that pattern screams severe wx potential from the Ohio Valley into even our region. If you're going to get a derecho that's the type of pattern that will do it. Depending on how exactly this evolves perhaps we can sneak a few EML shots our way. I do like how that 700 ridge is building though I think I'd like to see a bit more of a trough digging into the west (just to really eject EML air and have it ride along the ridge).

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Summer-like warmth and humidity takes control of our weather today
and persists through the weekend. A few showers/thunderstorms will
be possible each day with some heavy downpours, but much of this
time will also feature dry weather especially on Thursday when heat
and humidity peak. A stronger system late Friday into Saturday
brings heavy rain and potential flooding issues.

hope we minimize the rain

 

Hopefully my roof doesn't leak during house showings.  

[Spanks45]

72/72 right now. Had the windows open last night and woke up to a swampy house. Might be the last time for open windows for a while...

[weathafella]

Dewy day.  Makes me happy 

[Bostonseminole]

75.2/71  nice and cool with my new AC units.. so bring it.. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Anatomy of a "Sonoran Heat Release"  ... Walter Drag coined this expression back ... Jesus, I wanna say around 2000 give or take, but I really like this turn of phrase because it does very nicely label the synoptic mechanism for how excessive/'BIG HEAT' gets acutely discernable and transmitted across the mid latitudes of North America.  

Below is a still frame animation of the 850 mb temperatures, which rather nicely elucidates how this type of heat expulsion from preprep synoptic west, is identifiably different than the background climatology of standard middle latitude summer warmth ... Typically there is a synoptic trapping and huge insolation charging of SW regional air mass within a lower theta-e environment; this concomitantly/physically expands heights and primes for hypsometric mixing should this air get ejected, where higher geometries or conserved... The soundings over those regions begin to represent that air... Elevated Mixed Layer is a marker, but the 800 mb temperatures in general might show surpluses.. then, a larger scale perturbation in the flow 'dislodges' segments of it and get pulled out.. Typically this happens because height falls near or descend through the Pacific Northwest, and down stream there is an establish mid level veering in the larger circulation eddy.  IF/when said air is then ejected, but then happens to time well with an anomalous mid level hydrostatic heights, the hypsometric heights are then getting a positive feedback on ability to expand diurnally. Tall boundary layers with very long surface potential temperature adiabats results... and this 'synergistic' sort of results in numbers that exceed the typology of summer heat for regions ..usually extending Iowa to New England/Mid Atlantics...

Below is showing how this phenomenon typically evolves in the 850 mb level...  From left to right .. top down, that's D6, 7, 8 and 9 of the 00z operational Euro ... Note, the last panel has a re-enforcing mass/plume ejection that is backloading the initial continental conveyor

(C/o "Tropical Tidbits" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/):

 

Here is the day-9 500 mb hydrostatic/heights layout for/during that ending frame above:

This is about as obscene and anomalous as I have ever seen one of these modeled ... in a vacuum, regardless of any man-handled and beef-witted assumptive mangled surface temperature products there may be in existence ...this would support 100 to 105 temperature readings in most urban and/or climate favorable locales or where not available to modulation from any local offset physical circumstances... extending across a mammoth geographical area of the CONUS... ORD/DET/BUF/NYC/BOS ... DCA-PWM ... the Tenn Valley to Missouri would all suffer excessive and historic/high risk heat criteria in the 2-meter.  And what would make this particularly bad is the synergistic feed-back from it being multi-day where the previous diurnal cycle services the next with an improved setting for heating across successive periods... 

I have lower confidence issues with this happening right now...  mainly because the seasonal trend to build larger 500 mb hydrostatic anomalies in the D6 to 10+ range has been dominating the guidance tenor as spring has aged into summer, and thus far, few or not have managed to transpire ...or not nearly with the same panache and resonance as these guidance depictions.  What has corrected routinely, is a NW flow adaptation as these latter ranges become more midrange proper...then verifying as NW/confluence circumstantially driving fropas and 'backdoor' type corrections in the lower troposphere east of OH/Kentucky ~ longitude.  

Having said that... I am not 0 confidence either   ha... seriously, the GEFs gave me pause...

That is an extraordinary appeal from that hugely ballasted mean - in that it has more perturbed members ( I believe ... check that -) but to have that sort of ginormous 594+ isohypses closed contour ...situated "reasonably" well/collocated over the same region as the EPS ...should at least send a flag.  I just don't know about the extremeness...and given to the fact that we are nearing the climatological apex of summer anyway, ... if we mute this by some reasonable conserved approach: (seasonal trend + individual model bias + typical D8 uncertainty)/3 ..it might = something less obscene and probably more like a standard heat wave.  

Meanwhile, we have advanced climatology/formally scienced papers being disseminated about these sort of events becoming more commonplace, both in N--S amplitude and W--E duration ( symbolically...).  I have personally noted that in recent summers, North America ( particularly eastern) has been spared these sort of "special" heat events that are synergistically over achieving ... The last time we had a run in with this higher tier exceptional heat expression, and had it actually succeed from extended modeling detection all the way into verification, was the big heat event in 2011 that ended with the historic Derecho that ripped from NP-MA in July that summer...  

 

 

[Bostonseminole]

Good post Tip,  when was the last time we had such a heat wave across a large part of the US?  I remember the Chicago heat wave that killed many folks but really not anything too extreme since them.. 

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Dewy day.  Makes me happy 

Yea cloudy misty days are the bomb

[PowderBeard]

[dryslot]

Socked in here with clouds so i don't know if we can destabilize enough for widespread severe up here, I always remain skeptical on these threats.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Good post Tip,  when was the last time we had such a heat wave across a large part of the US?  I remember the Chicago heat wave that killed many folks but really not anything too extreme since them.. 

I mentioned that in there... but there's a lot there sorry - 

Yeah, 2011 I believe was the last time the models picked up at early extended lead, a hemispheric event and maintained the appeal all the way to verification - ..again, a Derecho seemed to demarcate the end of that one...That heat wave in the Euro - if memory serves- had an 850 mb thermal ridge approaching 26C!! punching E from Missouri to the M/A ... it actually missed New England to the south by a pube -

You know ( and the same is true for all atmospheric phenomenon, spring, summer, fall and winter...) ...bigger events tend to survive model vagaries... It is as though they have physics that the models see 'unmistakable' at longer leads, as though they are 'immutable' ?? if that makes sense... They have a momentum presence in the general eddy of the hemispheric physical maelstrom, so they can withstand pulverizing chaos and emergence fractals that would tend to dampen or ruin the other/less "big" D8 no'reasters... haha...but ...in this case, the scaffold for a big potential heat - I'd like to see another two cycles of persistence in the 'reasonably' well-agreed upon EPS/GEFs...and if the GEPs were to migrate it's positive anomaly node N to coincide would also be a nice confidence bonus... 

Otherwise, I'm still leaning more toward this as just eye-candy for summer enthusiasts...  but that's not a declaration or anything...just leaning.. I think I'm making it pretty clear that there is some chance for something like this... The Euro is almost too perfect a set up too... I mean, it's really right at the envelope of Terran geophysics...  It doesn't have to be so insane to still put up historic numbers... We could distract that layout of the Euro and still make 96/74 common from ORD to BOS and that'd be pretty damn excessive.   Right now, the Euro would support numerous 102/103 type readings over absurdly large area... 

[dendrite]

Yeah that d9-10 euro knifing a plume of 24C in here is probably how a July 1911 played out. You had widespread 100-104° max temps with a few even higher including the NH record at Nashua of 106°. Get the right westerly flow with full sun and that 24C will do it...especially with more thermodynamic potential with relatively lower dews in the 60s. It’ll probably verify as a couple days of 20-21C though resulting in mid-upper 90s.