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July 2020 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Brian5671

Brian5671

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On 6/26/2020 at 11:21 PM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Anyone who didn't enter the seasonal max portion can still enter that too.

Good luck !! 

DCA +2

NYC +1.5

BOS +1.5

ORD +3

ATL +1.0

IAH +1.0

DEN +.5

PHX +2.0

SEA +2.5

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts, July 2020

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA 

 

RJay ______________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ +2.0 __ 0.0 __0.0

hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 ___+2.6 _+1.3 _+1.6 ____ +0.2 _+0.8 __0.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________+2.7 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___+3.2 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ --0.4 _+0.5 _--0.5

BKViking __________________ +2.2 _+2.3 _+2.4 ___+2.7 _+1.6 _+0.9 ____ +1.0 _+0.5 _--0.3

Brian 5671 _________________+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+3.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____ +0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5

wxdude64 _________________+1.9 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___+2.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 ____ +1.4 _+0.7 _--1.0

___ Consensus ____________ +1.9 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___+2.4 _+1.5 _+1.0 ____ +1.0 _+0.7 _--0.1

RodneyS ___________________+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.2 ___+2.8 _--0.8 _+1.2 ____ +3.1 _+0.7 _--0.8

Jakkel wx __________________+1.7 _+1.4 _+2.0 ___+2.1 _+1.2 _+1.5 ____ +0.3 _--0.5 _--0.2

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

wxallannj __________________ +1.4 _+2.3 _+2.3 ___+1.6 _+1.4 _+1.0 ____ +0.6 _+0.2 _--0.4

Tom _______________________+1.4 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+1.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2

Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _+0.1 __0.0 ___ +0.2 _--0.2 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+0.7 __0.0

Normal _____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Tracking anomalies and projections ...

______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

_________ (8d) ________________+4.1 _+3.2 _--2.3 __ +8.2 _+0.7 _+3.2 ___+4.1 _+1.6 _--1.8

________ (15d) ________________+3.3 _+2.3 _--0.4 __ +5.9 _+1.0 _+4.5 ___+3.8 _+4.1 _--0.8

________ (22d) _______________ +4.2 _+3.0 _+0.4 __ +5.6 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +3.6 _+4.1 _+0.4

________ (29d) _______________ +4.2 _+3.5 _+1.9 __ +5.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +2.8 _+3.7 _+0.9

 

__ Seasonal Max to date ______ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 96 __ 95 __101 ____ 99 _ 118 __ 94

 

_______ (p15d) _______________ +3.0 _+1.8 _--1.0 __ +5.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___+4.0 _+1.5 _--1.0

_______ (p22d) _______________+3.0 _+2.0 _+0.5 __ +4.0 _+1.0 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 __0.0

 

_______ (p25d) _______________ +2.0 _+1.0 _--0.5 __ +3.5 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.0 _--0.5

16 ____ (p31d) _______________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +3.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___+2.5 _+2.0 _+0.5

23 ____ (p31d) _______________+3.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 __ +4.5 _+2.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.5 _+3.5 _+1.0

30 ____ (p31d) _______________+4.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +5.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.0 _+1.0

01 _ final anomalies _________ +4.1 _+3.5 _+1.9 __+5.2 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +2.3 _+4.1 _+1.3

(9th) _ A very warm start to July for much of the nation's mid-section, but the heat not quite reaching BOS, and cool in the Pac NW. Those trends will begin to fade towards normal conditions in all regions as the month goes on, so some imprint of this start can be seen in the projections for late in the month. 

(16th) _ The anomalies continued on the warm side in all but BOS and SEA, with a slight moderating trend. This seems to be the most likely projection to the end of the month, with gradually diminishing positive anomalies for most, a slow drift towards near or above normal for BOS and SEA. ... PHX has recorded 116 if you're tracking your seasonal max forecasts.

(23rd) _ Anomalies did not change very much over the past week and seem to be heading for finishes near where they are now, may boot up a provisional scoring table soon. Have included the seasonal max to date in the above tables. So far SEA has not beaten (just tied) a value set on May 10th. Most other locations have set a seasonal max recently. 

(30th) _ Not much change in the past week, SEA finally had some hot weather (it has been in the mid to upper 90s throughout the region for days). Provisional scoring is adjusted for today's revised (and likely close to final) anomalies.

(1st Aug) _ Final anomalies and scoring adjustments being posted as they hit my screen. PHX new seasonal max of 118 F. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for July 2020

Scores for PHX were boosted to the progression of 60, 55, 50 etc, unless raw scores were higher than the progression (boosted scores shown with ^ symbol). The highest raw score was 58. Progression scores of 25 and lower reverted to raw scores which were then higher (no ^ symbol).

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL

RJay ______________________ 78 _ 90 _ 78 __ 246 __ 58 _ 98 _ 76 __ 232 __ 478 __ 94 _ 18 _ 74 __ 186 _____ 664

hudsonvalley21 ____________74 _ 90 _ 82 __ 246 __ 50 _ 88 _ 88 __ 226 __ 472 __ 58 _ 45^_ 74 __ 177 _____ 649

Brian 5671 _________________58 _ 60 _ 92 __ 210 __ 58 _ 82 _ 76 __ 216 __ 426 __ 64 _ 60^_ 76 __ 200 _____ 626

___ Consensus _____________56 _ 70 _ 98 __ 224 __ 46 _ 92 _ 76 __ 214 __ 438 __ 74 _ 40^_ 72 __ 186 _____ 624

BKViking __________________ 62 _ 76 _ 90 __ 228 __ 52 _ 94 _ 74 __ 220 __ 448 __ 74 _ 28 _ 68 __ 170 _____ 618

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 72 _ 94 _ 78 __ 244 __ 62 _ 92 _ 76 __ 230 __ 474 __ 46 _ 28 _ 64 __ 138 _____ 612

Tom _______________________46 _ 60 _ 92 __ 198 __ 20 _ 94 _ 78 __ 192 __ 390 __ 76 _ 50^_ 78 __ 204 _____ 594

Scotty Lightning ___________ 48 _ 50 _ 82 __ 180 __ 18 _ 92 _ 86 __ 196 __ 376 __ 74 _ 55^_ 84 __ 213 _____ 589

wxdude64 _________________ 56 _ 66 _ 84 __ 206 __ 42 _ 90 _ 74 __ 206 __ 412 __ 82 _ 40^_ 54 __ 176 _____ 588

RodneyS ___________________54 _ 74 _ 86 __ 214 __ 54 _ 46 _ 80 __ 180 __ 394 __ 84 _ 40^_ 58 __ 182 _____ 576

wxallannj __________________ 46 _ 76 _ 92 __ 214 __ 30 _ 90 _ 76 __ 196 __ 410 __ 66 _ 22 _ 66 __ 154 _____ 564

Jakkel wx __________________52 _ 58 _ 98 __ 208 __ 40 _ 86 _ 86 __ 212 __ 420 __ 60 _ 08 _ 70 __ 138 _____ 558

Roger Smith _______________ 24 _ 32 _ 62 __ 118 __ 02 _ 58 _ 48 __ 108 __ 226 __ 84 _ 40^_ 74 __ 198 _____ 424

Normal ____________________ 18 _ 30 _ 62 __ 110 __ 00 _ 62 _ 56 __ 118 __ 228 __ 54 _ 18 _ 74 __ 146 _____ 374

_________________________________________________________________

The order of scoring is certainly quite close for most, and could change before final values posted.

===============================================

Extreme forecast report

DCA (+4.1) is a win for RJay with highest forecast of +3.0.

NYC (+3.5) is a win for Don Sutherland with highest forecast of +3.2.

BOS at +1.9 is now closer to consensus than earlier estimated, no extreme forecast likely here.

ORD (+5.2) is a win for Don Sutherland1 with highest forecast of +3.2.

ATL (+1.9) is a win for RJay at +2.0.

IAH (+2.2) is a win for Hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast of +1.6.

DEN with two cooler days at end (+2.3) changed to a loss for RodneyS (+3.1) and a win for RJay (+2.0). 

PHX (+4.1) is running warmer than all forecasts giving a win to Brian5671 at +2.0

SEA (+1.3) is running a little warmer than most forecasts, and ended with a win-loss situation (Scotty Lightning at +0.5, Brian at +2.5)

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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 < < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-July) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________500_ 472_526 __1498 __467 _413_456__1336 __2834 __550_460_414_ 1424 ____4258

Don Sutherland.1 ___________432 _460_472 __1364 __433 _448_474 __1355 __2719 __376_446_432_ 1254 ____3973

RJay ______________________ 484 _ 491_433 __1408 __365 _420 _451 __1236 __2644 __460_435_430_ 1325 ____3969

hudsonvalley21 ____________399 _422 _487 __1308 __344 _410 _455 __1209 __2517 __423_528_433_ 1384 ____3901

___ Consensus _____________386 _388 _489 __1263__340 _397_476 __1213 __2476 __418_512_438_ 1368 ____ 3844

wxallannj __________________410 _442 _477 __1329 __320 _401 _474 __1195 __2524 __406_470_432_ 1308 ____3832

BKViking ___________________354 _368 _445 __1167__387 _338 _450__1175 __2342 __423_512_467_ 1402 ____ 3744

Brian5671 _________________ 414 _424 _446 __1284 __271 _405_455__1131 __2415 __288_463_468_ 1319 ____ 3734

Tom _______________________ 378 _380 _448 __1206__274 _448 _431__1153 __2359 __397_518_435_ 1350 ____3709

Scotty Lightning ____________268 _252 _360 __ 880 __282 _387_506__1175 __2055 __348_525_502_ 1375 ____ 3430

wxdude64 __________________303 _295 _346 __ 944__282 _358 _480__1120 __2064 __ 412_467_334_ 1213 ____3277

Roger Smith ________________298 _301 _394 __ 993__238 _439_372__1049 __2042 __ 370_292_290__952 ____ 2994

___ Normal _________________202 _202 _296 __ 700 __224 _366 _404__ 994 __1694 __300_442_ 462_ 1204 ____2898

JakkelWx _ (5/7) ____________220 _221 _336 __ 777 __250 _241 _376 __877 __1654 __296 _312 _238__846 ____2500

 

yoda _ (2/7) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 ___ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/7) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 __ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/7) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 __ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/7) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/7) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 __ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to July

49 of 63 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 34 for warmest and 15 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul ___ Standings to date

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 ___11 -2

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 ____9 - 2

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ___ 7 - 0

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 ___ 7 - 0

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- ____ 6 - 2

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 ___ 4 - 0

Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 4 - 1

Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- ____ 2 - 0

RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 2 - 0

hudsonvalley21 ___ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 ____ 1-0

yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0

Jakkelwx _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1 - 0

wxallannj _________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- ____ 1 - 1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to July

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 3 _ Jan, Feb, May

DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr

RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Jakkelwx ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

 

 

 

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