Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks for the NYC update I live as far away from NYC then it is from NYC to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Hrrr would make sense. I don’t expect much at all. That stuff now will likely weaken and I think more develops towards area with better CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr would make sense. I don’t expect much at all. That stuff now will likely weaken and I think more develops towards area with better CAPE. Droughtstein strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ginx says soaking . To me soaking is a couple inches of rain over a period of days. Not 2 downpours. As far as low dews.. not seeing that 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Droughtstein strikes again HRRR vs. radar: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 It will dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 It will be the high base nuisance light stuff. The kind where radar looks good, but it’s the fat drops based 10’ apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will dry up Perhaps so, but hour 1 of the HRRR appears to be a sizeable miss. As does the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: HRRR vs. radar: Looks dead nuts on. Light rain and sprinkles . Unreal Let us know how much soaking you total today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be the high base nuisance light stuff. The kind where radar looks good, but it’s the fat drops based 10’ apart. Hoping for .25” or so here even if it doesn’t make a dent in our water deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Rgem agrees, it’s SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks dead nuts on. Light rain and sprinkles . Unreal Let us know how much soaking you total today I suppose it's dead nuts on if you pretend the rain from north of Watertown to west of Rochester isn't there. Like I said to Scott--I'm not saying it won't miss. But the HRRR missed a lot in it's first hour. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Looks like we’re going to get screwed here. Drought continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will dry up Think the .18” we got in a shower yesterday will be more than we get today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: I suppose it's dead nuts on if you pretend the rain from north of Watertown to west of Rochester isn't there. Like I said to Scott--I'm not saying it won't miss. But the HRRR missed a lot in it's first hour. Just sayin' Why are you using NWS radars #1? It’s not 1997. Most of that is high based . It’s only really light rain under a small area like HRRR depicts . We’re going to get screwed again, not a surprise to me at all. But seems like you’re thinking good rains. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Think the .18” we got in a shower yesterday will be more than we get today? Probably. I mean I think a bunch of areas will get measurable...I’m not saying totally dry. I just don’t see a beneficial widespread soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 3k nam went SW too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Big time euro fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Big time euro fail Radar sure doesn’t look like it will miss though. We’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will dry up 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be the high base nuisance light stuff. The kind where radar looks good, but it’s the fat drops based 10’ apart. You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably. I mean I think a bunch of areas will get measurable...I’m not saying totally dry. I just don’t see a beneficial widespread soaking. High PoP, low QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. High PoP, low QPF. I could see a narrow area do decent in those zones. Aside from that, just not sure this does much..:especially the further East you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. High PoP, low QPF. If you look at the advection stuff from yesterday and today, definitely weaker. We don’t have near hurricane force winds at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 For Rain. Sell today buy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Nice little circulation there between SYR and ALB. We’ll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Big time euro fail It will be scored. A 7 /10 split would be funny though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: For Rain. Sell today buy tomorrow. Maybe in NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: It will be scored. A 7 /10 split would be funny though I actually think that solution is viable. Not sure on amounts, but that could be the axis that does the best. Probably more of a drop off on either side. We’ll see. I still think a lot of the lighter stuff will weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are you using NWS radars #1? It’s not 1997. Most of that is high based . It’s only really light rain under a small area like HRRR depicts . We’re going to get screwed again, not a surprise to me at all. But seems like you’re thinking good rains. Good luck You mean something different like this? And why the hostility? if you've read any of my posts, they were tied to the HRRR depiction relative to current radar. I said repeatedly something along the lines of "I'm not saying it won't miss......". But interpret things as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice little circulation there between SYR and ALB. We’ll have to watch that. Binghamton is rain fog mist and 60 degrees, glad we dont live there. Pretty awesome low dew morning here. Nice swimming weather now with partial sun and higher dews. We look to have a rainy afternoon. Nice soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: You mean something different like this? And why the hostility? if you've read any of my posts, they were tied to the HRRR depiction relative to current radar. I said repeatedly something along the lines of "I'm not saying it won't miss......". But interpret things as you will. Hes in drought PTSD mode, needs some love and hugs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Dew is 65 here. Ain’t that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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