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Saturday, June 27 - Sunday, June 28, 2020 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like this is setting up to piss DIT off with like a “pedestrian soaking” if there’s such a thing... it’ll be just enough of a soaking to get comments on drought relief without being impressive.  

I get the vibe some want it to miss north or bring 2-3”.... 0.47”, no thanks lol.

yeah...this does appear to be physically transforming into a synoptic type rain ...but it will likely have embedded enhancements and orange lightning ...  It's tough though - I'd like to see this thing survive the nocturnal transformation of the ambient tropospheric sounding as it propagates through the eastern Lakes and NYS toward/through dawn.. If so, we get strata rains with embeddeds ... otherwise, the whole thing could be over sold.

Either way... no one asked but I like this pattern incoming...Once we sans whatever that is tomorrow, we end up diurnal mid level lapse rates over stranded SBCAPE/Theta-e and we're probably getting cloud photogenics on a daily afternoon/evening diet for days...

as far a drought talk I almost never give that much acknowledgment - tomorrow could over produce and we're behind but no drought. We just don't do west -Texas around our geological circumstance -

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Nice warm and muggy stretch  for us so far this year. Nothing super impressive, but nice for summer activities. 

Not impressive at all. One 90 degree reading in June? Meh . Hopefully we can pull off a day or two that reaches 90 in July. It's been great for summer activities!

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8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not impressive at all. One 90 degree reading in June? Meh . Hopefully we can pull off a day or two that reaches 90 in July. It's been great for summer activities!

Lots of mid to upper 80s and the nrn part of MA having a heat wave. Been a very warm June. 

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50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning everyone, 

My feeling is that there may not be enough instability (heat, Cape) in advance for much svr,  but some of the modeling as per SPC D1 545z discussion still gives opportunity. Just looks to me like primary event is a bit too soon this afternoon and with cloud cover, the best heat 90+ looks south of our area. Therefore, think best chance severe is I80-i78 as someone previously mentioned.  So for this NYC metro forum,  would think it will rain and if we get lucky, a few spots near I80 should pick up 0.5-1.5" in heavy convection this afternoon-evening w still a small chance svr.  Suspect, there will be better days this summer for westerly flow severe in NYC. Just has trended a little further south and faster since Wednesdays post (result less primed prior instability)

Follow SPC, your local NWS forecast offices for updates from their view, and your other knowledgeable resources-friends. If I do manage a svr storm, I'll post here. Otherwise, it's an mPing day. 

Walt

552A/27

 

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