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Saturday, June 27 - Sunday, June 28, 2020 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks dead nuts on. Light rain and sprinkles . Unreal 

Let us know how much soaking you total today 

I suppose it's dead nuts on if you pretend the rain from north of Watertown to west of Rochester isn't there.

Like I said to Scott--I'm not saying it won't miss.  But the HRRR missed a lot in it's first hour.  Just sayin'

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

I suppose it's dead nuts on if you pretend the rain from north of Watertown to west of Rochester isn't there.

Like I said to Scott--I'm not saying it won't miss.  But the HRRR missed a lot in it's first hour.  Just sayin'

Why are you using NWS radars #1? It’s not 1997. Most of that is high based . It’s only really light rain under a small area like HRRR depicts . We’re going to get screwed again, not a surprise to me at all. But seems like you’re thinking good rains. Good luck 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Think the .18” we got in a shower yesterday will be more than we get today?

Probably. I mean I think a bunch of areas will get measurable...I’m not saying totally dry. I just don’t see a beneficial widespread  soaking.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will dry up 

 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be the high base nuisance light stuff. The kind where radar looks good, but it’s the fat drops based 10’ apart. 

You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably. I mean I think a bunch of areas will get measurable...I’m not saying totally dry. I just don’t see a beneficial widespread  soaking.

High PoP, low QPF.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. 

High PoP, low QPF.

I could see a narrow area do decent in those zones. Aside from that, just not sure this does much..:especially the further East you get. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. 

High PoP, low QPF.

If you look at the advection stuff from yesterday and today, definitely weaker. We don’t have near hurricane force winds at 850. :lol: 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It will be scored. A 7 /10  split would be funny though 

download - 2020-06-27T102333.510.png

I actually think that solution is viable. Not sure on amounts, but that could be the axis that does the best. Probably more of a drop off on either side. We’ll see. I still think a lot of the lighter stuff will weaken. 

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are you using NWS radars #1? It’s not 1997. Most of that is high based . It’s only really light rain under a small area like HRRR depicts . We’re going to get screwed again, not a surprise to me at all. But seems like you’re thinking good rains. Good luck 

You mean something different like this?

And why the hostility?   if you've read any of my posts, they were tied to the HRRR depiction relative to current radar.  I said repeatedly something along  the lines of "I'm not saying it won't miss......".  But interpret things as you will.

Screenshot_2020-06-27 weatherTAP Radar Northeast Region.png

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little circulation there between SYR and ALB. We’ll have to watch that. 

Binghamton is rain fog mist and 60 degrees,  glad we dont live there. Pretty awesome low dew morning here. Nice swimming weather now with partial sun and higher dews. We look to have a rainy afternoon.  Nice soaker

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

You mean something different like this?

And why the hostility?   if you've read any of my posts, they were tied to the HRRR depiction relative to current radar.  I said repeatedly something along  the lines of "I'm not saying it won't miss......".  But interpret things as you will.

 

Screenshot_2020-06-27 weatherTAP Radar Northeast Region.png

Hes in drought PTSD mode, needs some love and hugs.

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